Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 12, 2009

/IRBIS, November 12, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 12, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - today after yesterday's improving analysts of BTA Securities expect moderately positive dynamics of the European stock market on presentation. Some positive sentiment can provide to investors corporate news from the U.S., where the world's largest manufacturer of computer equipment Applied Materials Inc. published a strong financial results for third quarter, the growth of orders and Hewlett-Packard Co. purchasing network equipment manufacturer 3Com Corp. After a half hour after the of trade opening in Europe, the market will be published data on industrial production in the euro area for September, which is the second major data coming out on Thursday in the U.S. and Europe. Economists expect production growth by 0.5%. Investors today, in the first place, will look at the statistics on unemployment in the United States. Economists expect a slight improvement figures. The euro / dollar in morning trading while preserves the balance, oil is traded in negative zone. The publication of government data on oil and gasoline in the United States has been rescheduled for today due to holidays. As previously assumed analysts BTA Securities, investors are unlikely to see this positive statistics that would put pressure on markets. Technical analysis suggests lowering the main index today. It should be noted that the S & P500 index yesterday went to the local maxima and its further improvement can occur only when there is strong support factors. So analysts BTA Securities adhere to a cautious view of the prospects of the market on Thursday. - Today the Kazakh market growth is possible with the support of the shares of banks on the latest news on the sector. Shares of Kazakhtelekom and probably will owners of raw materials moderating influence on the market. - Messages about the possible introduction of restrictions on foreign capital in banking sector in the country, as well as the requirements on placement of funds from foreign companies operating in Kazakhstan, local banks, will have good support for stock quotations sector, even if the negative dynamics of foreign markets. - Today is expected to yield data DOE oil reserves, which are likely to show growth similar to the data API. Support will have the expected positive quotes for U.S. unemployment. By KMG shares is expected after the negative dynamics of prices on petroleum, on shares of BMB Munai analysts BTA Securities expect growth of quotations on the background of positive signals from the quarterly report released on Tuesday. - Today, analysts of BTA Securities expect the dollar to strengthen the European currency, which would put pressure on base metals quotes. As a result, copper and aluminum noted a minor decrease. Gold will be back in the black. In Kazakhstan issuers expected countervailing dynamics: Kazakhmys is in minus, quotes of ENRC will support the expected positive data operating results for the third quarter of 2009 today. - Analysts of BTA Securities expect a negative market reaction to the results Kazakhtelekom for the third quarter of 2009 and the further reduction of stock price of the company. It should be noted that from November 4, a growing, liquidity trades of ADR Kazakhtelecom to Frankfurt. The greatest volume of trading was marked by November 9-10. The growth rates lagged behind the cost of ADR value of the shares on KASE. As a result, leaving a gap of 9.75%. Analysts of BTA Securities believe that it will also put pressure on the share prices of the company during the next trading day. - November 12, possible strengthening of the dollar against the euro on the background of restrained dynamics of the stock market. Also estimated the technical capacity of the English pound against the dollar. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 8.2 5.5 Sell -33 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 605.0 410.0 Sell -32 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 270.6 205.0 Sell -24 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.3 7.9 Hold +9 HALYK BANK KASE 278.0 295.0 Hold +6 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 143.0 191.0 Buy +34 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 650.0 735.0 Hold +13 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.4 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,750.0 20,889.0 Hold -2 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.10 2.54 Buy +121 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,290.0 1,324.0 Hold +3 ENRC LSE 922.5 824.0 Hold -11 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.07 0.13 Buy +100 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.0 7.0 Hold -12 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.3 2.0 Sell -38 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 20,499.0 25,093.0 Buy +22 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.350 0.039 Sell -89 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 64.5 120.9 Buy +87 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-12]