Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 11, 2009

/IRBIS, November 11, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 11, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today the positive macroeconomic statistics in China and Japan today will lead to a moderate increase of stock price of raw materials companies in Europe and the United States and market shares in both regions. Industrial production in China in October grew by 16.1% in annual comparison and since the beginning of the year at 9.4%, generally exceeding the expectations of economists (15.5% and 9.5% respectively). At the same time, retail sales in the Celestial rose 16.2% in annual comparison, but for 10 months - 15.3%, exceeding market forecasts for both parameters (15.7% and 15.2% respectively). Orders of machinery and equipment in Japan in September, far exceeding economists' forecasts (4.1%), rose to 10.5%. Restraining influence on the market today will have a weak statistics on imports of China and data on oil and gasoline in the United States. Data API, released yesterday, showed growth stocks, which means a greater likelihood of bad government data today. Oil prices may continue to decline. U.S. dollar today, is likely to be weakened due to increased investor demand for risky assets. This may support the price quotes on the "black gold". - Today the dynamics of the Kazakhstan stock market will again be positive. Shares of commodity companies and banks will be the growth leaders through positive makrostatistike from Asia and the growth of quotations of the GDR national banks in London, probably on the message about the possible introduction of controls limits the presence of foreign banks in the country. - On the positive dynamics of foreign markets on positive news from Asia, as well as the growth of quotations of the GDR on the eve of the Kazakh banks, will increase investor demand for shares of the sector. At current levels, analysts of BTA Securities recommends a BUY common shares of Bank of BCC (18%). Also, do not exclude the possibility of further enhancing the value of ordinary shares Halyk Bank and Kazkommertsbank. - negative data on oil reserves in the U.S. version of the API will put pressure on the quotation. However, data on China's trade surplus show a decline in imports, which will help reduce the quotations of commodities. On shares KMG expected following the negative dynamics of prices on oil, on shares of BMB Munai continued growth of quotations on the background of positive signals from the quarterly reports published yesterday. By reviewing the medium-term forecast of oil prices and operating parameters of the model, analysts BTA Securities raise the target price of shares of the Company up to $ 2.54 and save the recommendation to "buy". - published today positive data from China's industrial production and retail sales should generally support quotations basic metals and metal sector shares. Nevertheless, positive trends will be smoothed on the data on the reduction in October of Chinese exports and imports. Analysts BTA Securities expected to strengthen the euro against the U.S. dollar, which is likely to lead to a further increase in gold prices. Against this background, on shares of Kazakhmys and ENRC on the LSE is expected to increase moderately. - November 11 is expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on rising U.S. stock market quotations. Analysts of BTA Securities predicted the weakening pound against the negative unemployment Britain. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.9 5.5 Sell -30 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 560.0 410.0 Sell -27 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 231.0 205.0 Hold -11 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.0 7.9 Hold +13 HALYK BANK KASE 264.0 295.0 Hold +12 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 143.0 191.0 Buy +34 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 621.0 735.0 Buy +18 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.0 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,300.0 20,889.0 Hold -2 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.15 2.54 Buy +121 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,252.0 1,324.0 Hold +6 ENRC LSE 911.0 824.0 Hold -10 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.08 0.13 Buy +73 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.0 7.0 Hold -12 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 2.0 Sell -35 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 21,000.0 25,093.0 Buy +19 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.320 0.039 Sell -88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 67.5 120.9 Buy +79 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-11]