Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for November 6, 2009

/IRBIS, November 6, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for November 6, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today, at least in the first half of the day, we can expect another increase European market share to increase optimism about the future restoration of the world economy. Central Bank of Australia today tripled its expectations for growth in August the country's economy in 2009 and confirmed that it would be one of the leaders among the world's central banks to raise the base rate. Data on unemployment in the United States, released yesterday, convinced investors that the job losses will be reduced in the near future. The growth of economic optimism is putting pressure on low-yielding currencies, the dollar and the yen. In morning trading, they are weakened, oil becomes more expensive, both in Europe and the United States, that the compartment can talk about the growth of the shares of commodity companies today. Positive financial results from Nvidia and Sturbacks also create a good corporate news background before the opening of trading in Europe. The Final dynamics of the market shares of Europe and the United States today will determine makrostatistika on employment in the United States. Now come the important data on the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate. By the first measure is expected to reduce the loss of jobs, the second growth to a mark of 9.9% from 9.8% a month earlier. Data on the ADP Employment Change, released on Wednesday, give hope for good results on the first indicator. Some attention will be paid to investors and corporate results. Today will be interesting to record the largest U.S. insurance company, AIG. - Analysts BTA Securities expect to see increasing market shares of Kazakhstan on a positive external background newsletter. Expected increase in stock price of mining companies against the expected growth in prices for oil and metals. Shares of individual banks may also rise in price in the presence of substantial growth potential and investor interest in shares of the sector. - return of optimism to foreign markets today will have a positive impact on the dynamics of the shares of Kazakh banks. Analysts BTA Securities believes that investor demand will be formed on the fallen in price action. According to the target price BTA Securities, at current levels show a good potential return shares and depository receipts Halyk Bank's growth potential and 18-22% shares of Bank of BCC with a potential increase of 27%. Shares yesterday held out the last drop, which may indicate that they are well established in the current levels. - Today analysts BTA Securities expect the positive trend on the oil futures after yesterday's correction. Technical analysis shows the weakening of the dollar today, according to the quotations of oil and stocks RD Kazmunaigaz and BMB Munai gives the signal down. - Today is expected to increase in prices for industrial metals, after a two-day decline, on the restoration of investors' optimism for global economic recovery that will positively affect the share prices Kazakhmys and ENRC. - on November 6, expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on the background of positive Change in Nonfarm Payrolls USA. Also projected strengthening of the pound against the backdrop of positive index of prices of industrial Britain. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.1 5.5 Sell -23 KAZKOMMERTSBANK KASE 550.0 410.0 Sell -25 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 231.0 205.0 Hold -11 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 6.5 7.9 Buy +22 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 249.7 295.0 Buy +18 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 168.4 147.0 Hold -13 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 143.0 191.0 Buy +34 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 23.2 23.2 Hold 0 KAZKMUNAIGAZ KASE 21,500.0 20,889.0 Hold -3 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.14 2.01 Buy +76 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,207.0 1,324.0 Hold +10 ENRC LSE 890.0 824.0 Hold -7 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.07 0.13 Buy +100 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.1 7.0 Hold -13 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.2 2.0 Sell -37 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 21,500.0 25,093.0 Buy +17 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.270 0.039 Sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 66.5 120.9 Buy +82 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-11-06]