Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 30, 2009

/IRBIS, October 30, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 30, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today the major indices in Europe and the United States can continue the positive momentum through a return of optimism to the markets. Factor of the strong dollar against the U.S. Treasury bond placements, this will have no effect on the market in connection with the completion of the auction. European currency could continue to strengthen against the dollar, due to the expected positive macro-data on retail sales in Germany and the index of business activity in the state of Chicago. Support the markets can also go in the day data on consumer confidence index, calculated by the University of Michigan, as well as the positive statistics on unemployment in Japan. The unemployment rate in this country in September fell to 5.3% from 5,6% a month earlier. Technical analysis indicates a further increase in the indices on Friday. Index S & P500 close to the lower boundary Bollendzhera that can speak about the turn of the market. A share of doubts about the relative motion of the stock market in the coming days, making the fact that after the stock market rally from July to October, the market saw a major correction. For example, from 15 June to 7 July markets fell by almost 10% after growth from March to mid-June. This time, market correction does not exceed 5.5%. The reason for the reduction of the market can be found. The impressive growth of GDP could rise to speculation about the near raising the base rate, with a positive for the dollar, but negative for oil. In addition, the consumer sector, according to the dynamics of the confidence index shows a slow recovery, so today it is possible unpleasant surprises on the Michigan index. - Analysts of BTA Securities believes that sales period, which lasted from the beginning of the week came to the line. Kazakhstan market received an external signal for the growth of confidence and "bullish" mood. According to BTA Securities, the local market today will seek to compensate for the lost positions. This will contribute to the external background and fundamentally strong characteristics of a number of issuers. The best growth, now expected from the representatives of the banking sector and commodity companies. Analysts BTA Securities offered to pay attention to the paper Kazakhmys, which have markedly grown in the LSE during yesterday's trading session. - increasing global market share can be a good trigger an increase in stock price of Kazakhstani banks, especially as investor interest in shares of the sector remains at the background of improving the fundamental characteristics of the issuers. The growth of quotations of the GDR in London, the CMC can also support growth. - Yesterday's positive news on the U.S. GDP were able to reverse the emerging "bear" trend. Analysts of BTA Securities believe that U.S. GDP data gave good support to the commodity markets, and look forward to continuing the positive trend of today. The fundamental background of oil is still quite good, recent consumption of gasoline in the U.S. demonstrates the growth in annual terms, although there is a tendency to decrease. Base price for the December-Put Options rose from $ 70 to $ 80 on Thursday, indicating that the turn of the bear sentiment among investors. - Today analysts of BTA Securities expected further weakening of U.S. currency to the euro, which will provide additional support for basic quotes and precious metals. Gold, copper, aluminum and zinc finish the day in positive territory. Kazakhmys and ENRC will continue their growth. - October 30, is expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on the background positive for U. of Michigan Confidence. Analysts BTA Securities forecast strengthening British pound against the background of the relative positive Nat'wide House prices in Britain. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.3 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 214.5 183.8 hold -14 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.0 n.a. On review n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 168.4 93.0 sell -45 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 143.0 123.0 hold -14 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 579.0 n.a. On review n.a. -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.2 23.2 hold -4 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.04 2.01 buy +93 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,186.0 1,324.0 hold +12 ENRC LSE 889.0 824.0 hold -7 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.05 0.13 buy +189 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.2 7.0 hold -14 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 2.0 sell -34 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 19,500.0 25,093.0 buy +29 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.270 0.039 sell -86 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 56.0 120.9 buy +116 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- - the recommendation on the shares and GDRs of Halyk Bank, Bank of Bank Center Credit and Kazkommertsbank to revision due to change our view of the dynamics of the main factors of their value in the future. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-10-30]