Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 28, 2009

/IRBIS, October 28, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 28, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today analysts of BTA Securities expected to increase global market share. The course of European currencies against the dollar, according to technical analysis, should go up after three days of fall that would support prices for raw materials. Official data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products in the U.S., according to preliminary estimates, can show the decline in gasoline inventories last week and quotes to support oil prices. Statistics on orders of durable goods in the U.S. in September and sales of new homes promises good results. In the case of positive equity market environment to be restored. The technical analysis of movement of the main indices indicative of their growth today. Dynamics of futures pointed to a slight increase in the U.S. market indexes and individual European countries. - Analysts of BTA Securities does not expect significant changes in the value of the index KASE. Shares of the banking sector could put pressure on market quotations by the fall of the GDR in foreign markets. Expected positive dynamics of foreign markets can support the native code, if they affect the growth and commodity stocks. - Today analysts of BTA Securities expected further fixation profits on shares Kazkommertsbank and Halyk Bank in response to a drop in prices of these banks of the GDR on the LSE and the growth spread between them and the prices of ordinary shares on the local market. - Today on the quotations of oil analysts of BTA Securities expect growth in the data on oil reserves under the version of DOE. Oil and gasoline can show the reduction, according to the data API, released yesterday. The fundamental background of oil is still quite good, the last two weeks, U.S. gasoline inventories show decline this week, possibly continuing the trend in the closure of several refineries for repair. Support for shares of the oil sector will have the expected positive reports Chevron, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhilips this week. - Today analysts of BTA Securities expect the steel sector will show positive dynamics. Factor to correct the negative dynamics in metals prices should serve us today expected depreciation of the dollar against the euro. - Oct. 28 is expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on the background of positive orders for durable goods the United States. Analysts of BTA Securities predict technical strengthening British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.0 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 230.0 183.8 To sell -20 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.1 n.a. On review n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 179.7 93.0 To sell -48 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 143.0 123.0 To hold -14 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 581.0 n.a. On review n.a. -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 24.7 23.2 To hold -6 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.09 2.01 To buy +85 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,224.0 1,324.0 To hold +8 ENRC LSE 906.0 824.0 To hold -9 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To buy +117 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.3 7.0 To hold -15 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 To sell -32 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 22,995.0 25,093.0 To hold +9 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.320 0.039 To sell -88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 63.5 120.9 To buy +90 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- - the recommendation on the shares and GDRs of Halyk Bank, Bank of Bank Center Credit and Kazkommertsbank to revision due to change our view of the dynamics of the main factors of their value in the future. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-10-28]