Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 27, 2009

/IRBIS, October 27, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 27, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today the dynamics of the main indexes in Europe and the U.S. will be determined by the movement of U.S. dollar. According to forecasts BTA Securities, this day is expected to weaken after three days of growth in the euro against the backdrop of positive macro-data on the U.S.. After the opening of trading in the U.S., investors can see the positive data on the index of consumer confidence, as well as statistics indicating stabilization in real estate prices in the U.S.. The growth rate should have a positive impact on the dynamics of prices for oil and metals. Technical analysis gives a signal up to U.S. indices. - Today may increase the domestic market shares in response to the anticipated positive trend in foreign markets. Shares of banks and Kazakhtelecom may support the market by maintaining them in demand from investors. - demand for shares of Kazakh banks after the fall before the might recover. The fundamental situation in the sector is improving, which may be a good incentive to buy. - quotations of oil today would be highly correlated to follow the dollar. Today, API will publish data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products. Analysts BTA Securities believes that gasoline inventories continue to decline as a result of the growth trends of demand in the U.S. in October, and also due to the closure of several refineries in the autumn renovation that will support the quotations in the second half of the U.S. trading session. Support for shares of the oil sector will have the expected positive reports Chevron, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhilips this week. - Today the dynamics of price quotations for industrial metals, is likely to be positive. Quotes for gold will continue to rise against the background of the expected weakening of the dollar today. - Oct. 27 is expected weakening of the dollar against the euro on positive U.S. consumer confidence. Analysts BTA Securities forecast strengthening British pound against the backdrop of positive to UK CBI October Distributive Trades. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.4 n.a. On review n.a. KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 231.0 183.8 To sell -20 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.5 n.a. On review n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 179.7 93.0 To sell -48 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE 143.0 123.0 To hold -14 BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 600.0 n.a. On review n.a. -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.4 23.2 To hold -9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.11 2.01 To buy +81 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,262.0 1,324.0 To hold +5 ENRC LSE 923.0 824.0 To hold -11 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To buy +117 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.4 7.0 To sell -16 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.0 2.0 To sell -32 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 22,950.0 25,093.0 To hold +9 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.290 0.039 To sell -87 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 62.5 120.9 To buy +93 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- - the recommendation on the shares and GDRs of Halyk Bank, Bank of Bank Center Credit and Kazkommertsbank to revision due to change our view of the dynamics of the main factors of their value in the future. The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency Irbis doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-10-27]