Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 21, 2009

/IRBIS, October 21, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 21, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Today analysts of BTA Securities expect a positive summary of the dynamics of the global market shares. Analysts believe that yesterday's negative statistics on the U.S. housing market did not break the optimism of investors. Moreover, in the near future we can expect a new foundation for growth. Now go out data on oil and gasoline in the United States. Yesterday's API report showed gasoline stocks decline in this country that gives hope for good government data. Spillover tomorrow morning GDP data in China may also force investors today again to buy shares of the commodity sector. The good mood today can provide positive financial results for the Internet company Yahoo and the largest producer of memory cards for cameras and mobile phones ScanDisk Corp. On this day also will publish their results, 50 companies, among which the most interesting are reports US Bancorp, Morgan Stanley and Boeing. According to the latest statistics, from October 7 79%-reporting company posted better-than-expected results for the third quarter. Macro news background on the market today will be zero. It should be noted only issue Federal Reserve Beige Book USA, where investors are likely to see positive signals on the economy from different regions of the country. - on Wednesday is likely the Kazakh market will go up with the support of the shares of the banking sector and possibly, natural resources companies on expectations of positive macro-data on the GDP of China. - in growing conditions of market share, analysts of BTA Securities recommended investors to pay attention to underestimated tools sector, namely, shares of Bank Center Credit. Market valuation of bank shares shows a significant lag from the market that does not fit into the overall picture of the fundamental condition of the issuer. Analysts of BTA Securities are optimistic about the prospects of the bank's development in coming years, due to a significant increase in the Bank's positions in the deposit market and the emergence of shareholder strategic investor represented by IFC. - on last week quotes for oil experienced a correction in anticipation of data on oil reserves, followed by continued rapid growth. This week, analysts of BTA Securities expect the same scenario against the backdrop remains positive corporate background and the expected positive U.S. GDP of China. Today is expected to increase quotes after data on stocks of DOE, which is likely to show positive on stocks of gasoline, according to the data API, released yesterday. From the perspective of technical analysis, quotes have the potential for further growth, as oil has broken an important resistance level at $ 76. The next resistance level at $ 83.6, and if the quotes and strikes it, you can move up to $ 89.8. Fundamentally, the U.S. oil reserves declined by 10% since March this year, but are above average, gasoline consumption shows the unstable dynamics and relatively weak. - Today metals continue the positive momentum in anticipation of positive data on China's GDP for the third quarter, to be released after the close of U.S. markets. Positive corporate background, as well as the expected growth of oil will contribute to the growth of quotations. - Technical analysis shows further strengthening of U.S. dollar against the euro, but analysts of BTA Securities does not rule out the resumption of growth in the euro if the positive trend of the stock market today. Also projected weakening of the pound against the backdrop of publications Bank of England Minutes of Great Britain. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 7.3 4.9 To sell -33 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 211.0 183.8 To hold -13 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.5 n.a. On review n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n.a. 93.0 n.a. n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 587.0 582.0 To hold -1 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.7 23.2 To hold -10 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.2 2.0 To buy +63 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,288.0 1,324.0 To hold +3 ENRC LSE 929.0 824.0 To hold -11 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.05 0.13 To buy +160 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.3 7.0 To sell -15 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.3 2.0 To sell -37 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,400.0 25,093.0 To buy +36 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.4 0.0 To sell -90 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 76.0 120.9 To buy +59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-10-21]