Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for October 19, 2009

/IRBIS, October 19, 09/ -BTA Bank JSC subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for October 19, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - Dynamics of futures for the major indices, as well as technical analysis are in favor of further reducing the global stock market on Monday. Macroeconomic news background of today bears no significant events in Europe and the USA. U.S. dollar today will be enhanced, at least in the first half day of trading in Europe in response to speculation that European finance ministers are meeting today in Luxembourg to question the propriety of the recent appreciation of the euro. Against this backdrop, prices for oil and metals, after a rally last week, may go down that negative for the stock market. The situation on the market in afternoon trading in Europe could change the corporate accounts of companies of technological sector, Apple and Texas Instruments. Investors also will look at the financial results of U.S. bank BB & T. - Analysts of BTA Securities expect falling stock price of Kazakhstan's companies on KASE. Negative background, will likely cause for further fixation of the profits. Perhaps the securities of Kazakhmys will adjust after the Friday falling of quotations on the LSE. Shares Exploration Production KazMunaiGas go down on the background of the expected decline in oil prices today. - in conditions of market share growth, analysts of BTA Securities recommended investors to pay attention to underestimated tools sector, namely bank shares BankCenterCredit. Market valuation of bank shares shows a significant lag from the market that does not fit into the overall picture of the fundamental condition of the issuer. Analysts BTA Securities are optimistic about the prospects of the bank's development in coming years, due to a significant increase in the Bank's positions in the deposit market and the emergence of shareholder strategic investor on behalf of IFC. - Technical analysis shows a decline in oil quotes today. In the absence of significant macroeconomic news on the U.S. and Europe, as well as the strengthening dollar, this scenario is likely. GDR JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas, presumably, grow, and shares of BMB Munai will continue to decline in the correction. - Today's day of analysts BTA Securities expect the negative dynamics of quotations of shares of industrial metals and metallurgical companies. Technical analysis also shows a decline. - Monday, Oct.19 is expected to strengthen the dollar against the euro on positive U.S. housing market and speculation about the interest of countries in the euro area in the weak euro. Analysts of BTA Securities predict technical weakening British pound. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------- --------- Banks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.8 4.9 To,sell -27 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 211.0 183.8 To,hold -13 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.4 n.a. On,discussion n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE n.a. 93.0 n.a. n.a. HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 565.0 582.0 To,hold +3 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------- --------- Oil and Gaz: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 25.6 23.2 To,hold -9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.2 2.0 To,buy +70 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------- --------- Metallurgy: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,258.0 1,324.0 To,hold +5 ENRC LSE 935.0 824.0 To,hold -12 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To,buy +117 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 8.9 7.0 To,sell -21 URANIUM ONE LSE 3.1 2.0 To,sell -33 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ ------------- --------- Companies with small capital: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ KAZAKTELECOM KASE 18,000.0 25,093.0 To,buy +39 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.3 0.0 To,sell -88 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 76.0 120.9 To,buy +59 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-10-19]