Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for September 30, 2009

/IRBIS, September 30, 09/ - JSC BTA Bank"s subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for September 30, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - analysts of BTA Securities do not exclude increasing of global market shares in response to positive corporate news and macro-economic statistics. Investors can respond positively to the better-than-projected financial results of companies of Micron Technology Inc. and Nike. Among the macroeconomic developments will support the market data on industrial production in Japan, which rose by 1.8% in August, are continuing a six-month increase already. HSBC data on PMI Manufacturing China, which showed another increase in production in the Middle Kingdom in September, may also give hope for a positive state statistics on this indicator, which will be published tomorrow. According to the forecasts of economists, good results can now be expected from data on employment in the U.S. (ADP Employment change). Improving macro- indicators can support today's appreciation of European currencies against the dollar and commodity markets. The dynamics of oil prices today would also depend on data on the stocks in the United States. Dynamics of futures for the major indexes still talks about the positive dynamics of today. Technical analysis gives a signal down on all the major indexes. - analysts of BTA Securities expected to increase the quotations of KASE index in response to the anticipated positive trend in prices for oil and metals. Shares of individual banks may continue to increase. - the decision of IFC to acquire shares in the capital of BankCenterCredit, may become a strong factor in increasing the quotation of its shares on KASE. IFC's presence in the bank's capital can favorably affect the bank's activities in ongoing liquidity crisis and the closing of external capital markets to domestic banks. In the future, the next 1-2 years the bank can significantly strengthen its position in the lending market for small and medium-sized businesses and deposits and the growth rate of bank assets outpace the growth in the sector. - Technical analysis shows the growth of oil prices today, but analysts of BTA Securities expects the decline of quotations after the expected negative DOE data on stocks of oil and gasoline in the United States. According to technical analysis, quotes from the GDR Exploration Production KazMunaiGas JSC now expected negative dynamics on shares BMB Munai growth will continue. - analysts of BTA Securities believes that today support the quotations of shares of domestic steel companies may have a rise in prices for metals and the positive dynamics of equity markets in response to the anticipated benefits of macro-data on the U.S. and China. The expected weakening of the U.S. dollar could also cause an increase in the cost of metals. - On September 30, is expected to decrease the U.S. dollar against the euro on the background of the negative on the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Manager. Analysts BTA Securities predict technical strengthening British pound against the dollar. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKOMMERTSBANK-GDR LSE 6.5 4.9 To,sell -24 KAZKOMMERTSBANK -PREF KASE 159.5 138.7 To,hold -13 HALYK BANK-GDR LSE 7.4 5.0 To,sell -32 HALYK BANK -PREF (HSBKP) KASE 123.2 93.0 To,sell -25 HALYK BANK -PREF1 (HSBKP1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. BANK CENTER CREDIT KASE 560.0 582.0 To,hold +4 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZKMUNAIGAZ-GDR LSE 20.1 23.2 To,buy +15 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.0 2.0 To,buy +109 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1,074.0 1,324.0 To,buy +23 ENRC LSE 863.0 824.0 To,hold -5 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To,buy +117 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 7.3 7.0 To,hold -3 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.5 2.0 To,sell -18 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKTELECOM KASE 15,610.0 25,093.0 To,buy +61 KAZAKHSTAN KAGAZY LSE 0.2 0.0 To,sell -78 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 68.5 120.9 To,buy +76 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-09-30]