Forecasts and recommendations of analysts of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) for September 23, 2009

/IRBIS, September 23, 09/ - JSC BTA Bank"s subsidiary BTA Securities (BTA Securities, Almaty) has provided IRBIS with a survey of main events, Forecasts and Investment ideas for September 23, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect today: - another expected weakening of the U.S. dollar and macro news background should contribute to the further improvement of quotations major indexes in Europe and the U.S. Today, the dollar will be under the pressure, because U.S. Fed at today's meeting will likely decide to leave its key interest rate unchanged. Today existing data on industrial production index in the euro area (PMI Manufacturing) and industrial orders expected positive. In September, economists predict a rise in the production index up 49.7 points from 48.2 points a month earlier and increase production orders 2 % in July. Commodity markets can support the indices in response to data on oil and gasoline in the U.S., leaving today, where they are expected to decline last week. Dynamics of futures for the major indexes still talks about the positive market dynamics in Europe today. Technical analysis gives a signal up to U.S. indices. - September 23, Kazakh stock market should continue to increase against the background of the expected further increase of quotations of major indexes in Europe in response to the positive macro-data on the Eurozone. - A current market news background has contributed to the further growth of stock price and the GDR Kazakhstan's banks, but analysts of BTA Securities recommended investors to refrain from buying heavily overvalued equity instruments of Kazkommertsbank and Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan and to draw attention to cheaper shares of Bank CenterCredit, there are significant growth potential. - Today quotes of GDR JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas may increase in response to anticipated positive macro data in the euro area. Today in the first half of day, a pressure on oil price will have provide by rising of gasoline stocks in the U.S., it's according to the report of the Ministry of Energy that published at night. Nevertheless, the projected weakening of the U.S. dollar and the positive macro-data for the euro area are able to compensate for this negative. - by the exit of positive data on the industrial sector the euro area the analysts of BTA Securities expected further increase in stock price of domestic steel companies. Expected to continue weakening U.S. dollar is once again to support prices for raw materials, which will also positively influence the dynamics of the metallurgical sector. - September 23, is expected a decrease of U.S. dollar against to euro on the background of the possible solutions of the Fed rate on unchanged at 0.25 %. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazkommertsbank-GDR LSE 6,2 4,9 To sell -21 Kazkommertsbank -PREF KASE 150,0 138,7 To hold -8 Halyk Bank-GDR LSE 7,6 5,0 To sell -34 Halyk Bank -PREF (HSBKp) KASE 123,2 93,0 To sell -25 Halyk Bank -PREF1 (HSBKp1) KASE n.a. 123,0 n.a. n.a. Bank Center Credit KASE 516,5 582,0 To hold +13 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- RD KazMunaiGaz-GDR LSE 21,4 23,2 To hold +9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1,1 2,0 To buy +86 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1 099,0 1 046,0 To hold -5 ENRC LSE 912,5 824,0 To hold -10 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX ,07 0,13 To buy +100 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 6,5 7,0 To hold +9 URANIUM ONE LSE 2,5 2,0 To sell -17 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 15 500,0 25 093,0 To buy +62 Kazakhstan Kagazi LSE 0,2 0,0 To sell -74 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 61,5 120,9 To buy +97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-09-23]