Forecast and recommendations of BTA Securities (Kazakhstan) analysts on September 22, 2009

/IRBIS September 22, 2009/ - BTA Securities Subsidiary of BTA Bank (Almaty, BTA Securities) provided its main survey of events and investment ideas and forecast to IRBIS on September 22, 2009. According to the report, the company analysts expect: - analysts of BTA Securities does not rule out the return of optimism to external markets due to the restoration of the positions of European currencies against the dollar and anticipated positive results in August on an index Richmond Fed Manufacture, Which is one of the main indicators of the dynamics of U.S. industry. Commodity markets are now able to support the indexes and not only because of the weakening dollar. Oil prices may go up in response to data on oil and gasoline in the U.S., where they are expected to decline in the previous week. Market players may also respond positively to the projected decline of oil producers facilities in this country. Metals prices could rise to favorable macroeconomic background. Quotes copper prices yesterday closed in positive territory on data from the U.S. Leading Indicators. Dynamics of futures for the major indexes still talks about the positive dynamics of the U.S. market today. Technical analysis gives a signal down almost all the major indexes. - do not exclude the probability of increasing stock price of the Kazakhstan market in response to a correction in prices for oil and metals on world markets. External positive can support and share prices of the banking sector. - a possible increase in stock price of Kazakhstan banks. The dynamics of the sector shares today will determine the external news background, which is expected to be favorable. These AFN sector for August may also be generally appreciated by the market positively. - Soon, quotes of GDR JSC Exploration Production KazMunaiGas may decline in response to a sharp decline in oil prices the day before. Support for oil prices today could have the expectation to reduce its stocks in the U.S. at 1.5 million barrels according to published by in the coming days weekly Report of the Ministry of Energy. Moreover, in the near future is expected seasonal decline in the processing of "black gold" in the United States as a result of the closure of refineries in the repair and maintenance after the summer season of increased demand for gasoline before the start of the period of increasing demand for fuel is distilled. - Today, you can expect an increase in stock price of domestic steel companies after two-day decline by positive macro-data on the United States, testifying on the improvement of economic situation in the country. The expected weakening of the U.S. dollar may also provide support for commodity prices, which will also positively influence the dynamics of the metallurgical sector. - Sept. 22 is expected to decrease the U.S. dollar against the euro on the background of positive to Richmond Fed Manufact. Index United States and increase American stock market quotations. Analysts of BTA Securities give the following advice for investors in securities of issuers in Kazakhstan: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock Final Target price Recom Potential Emitter Exch price for 2009 mendation % percent ange -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Banks -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazkommertsbank-GDR LSE 6.0 4.9 To sell -18 Kazkommertsbank -PREF KASE 145.0 138.7 To hold -4 Halyk Bank-GDR LSE 7.5 5.0 To sell -33 Halyk Bank -PREF (HSBKp) KASE 123.2 93.0 To sell -25 Halyk Bank -PREF1 (HSBKp1) KASE n.a. 123.0 n.a. n.a. Bank Center Credit KASE 515.0 582.0 To hold +13 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Oil and Gaz: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- RD KazMunaiGaz-GDR LSE 21.3 23.2 To hold +9 BMB MUNAI AMEX 1.0 2.0 Ton buy +103 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Metallurgy: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAZAKHMYS PLC LSE 1 087.0 1 046.0 To hold -4 ENRC LSE 874.0 824.0 To hold -6 ORSU METALS CORP. TSX 0.06 0.13 To buy +117 KAZAKHGOLD-GDR LSE 6.5 7.0 To hold +9 URANIUM ONE LSE 2.5 2.0 To sell -18 -------------------------- ----- -------- ------------ --------- --------- Companies with small capital: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kazakhtelecom KASE 15 500.0 25 093.0 To buy +62 Kazakhstan Kagazi LSE 0.2 0.0 To sell -74 STEPPE CEMENT LSE 59.5 120.9 To buy +103 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- The given material has exclusively information character and is not the offer or the recommendation to make any transactions with the stocks. Agency "Irbis" doesn't take responsibility for the opinions which are in given material. [2009-09-22]