ANALYSIS: in February 2009 trade volume grew at KASE share market on the number of "domestic" deals

18.03.09 19:56
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, Vitaliy Tomskiy, March 18, 09/ - In February 2009 Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) registered 1 499 deals for the total of KZT58.4 bn. or USD392.7 m. according to the current rate as on the date of conclusion of deals in shares in all market sectors including deals concluded on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA). The indicated sum totals to 52.4 % of monthly turnover of KASE corporate securities market (in January 2009 - 33.3 %) and 2.1 % of the total exchange monthly turnover (0.7 %). By results of February 2009 weighted average day prices of 29 % shares denominations increased (in January 2009 - 21 %), 60 % denominations (60 %) - decreased, prices of 7 % of shares didn't change (19 %), 4 % denominations were traded for the first time on KASE. Maximum trend showed the following instruments: ATFB increased by 220.0 %, SATC fell by 100.0 %. In January KMSO grew by 300.0 %, BTAS fell by 77.02 %. One-day devaluation of KZT/USD, made by the National Bank of Kazakhstan on February 4, 2009, provoked growth of shares that complies the basket of KASE Index, which flew 20 % for one day within technical correction with quotation of specified securities at the world floors. But we note this one-day devaluation of tenge eventually is not the main factor of volume growth in February 2009 at KASE shares market - it was aroused by the number of "domestic" deals in common shares of Shubarkol komir JSC, made on February 16, 2009 at STF RFCA secondary market (55.7 % of total trade volume). Both external negative background and investors` anxieties regarding the fall of financial stability and financial responsibility of Kazakhstan banks went on exerting pressure at Kazakhstan shares market. London Stock Exchange (LSE) observed the fall of global receipts of Alliance Bank JSC by 58.0 % (-23.8 % in January 2009), Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC - by 17.0 % (-24.9 %), Kazkommertsbank JSC - by 12.5 % (- 46.7 %). GDR of Exploration Production KazMunaiGaz JSC also fell - by 4.0 % (+1.4 %) on permanent oil fall. KAZAKHMYS PLC grew - by 16.9 % (-3.1 % in January 2009), EURASIAN NATURAL RESOURCES CORPORATION PLC - by 5.0 % (-3.8 %). Below are the tables providing details on KASE share market in February 2009. Tab. 1. Statistical characteristics of KASE share market in February 2009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Trend to ----------------------- Jan. Feb. Indicator Feb. 2009 2008 2008 -------------------------------------- --------- --------- ------------- Trade volume, th. USD 392,681.3 2.5 times +59.7 % Trade volume, m. KZT 58,414.8 3.0 times +97.4 % including, on offerings, th. USD - - - including, on offerings, m. KZT - - - including on STF RFCA, th. USD 200,737.2 7.7 times 1,429.1 times including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 29,931.6 9.5 times 1,770.9 times Deals 1,499 +40.1 -28.5 Instruments in deals 46 -2.1 +15.0 Daily average of deals 75 +33.1 -25.8 Daily average volume of deals, th. USD 19,634.1 2.3 times +63.3 Daily average volume of deals, m. KZT 2,920.7 2.9 times 2.0 times Stake of nego deals (number), % 2.6 +0.8 +0.7 Stake of nego deals (volume), % 3.6 +0.7 -1.6 Pension assets, % gross 1.2 -6.6 -7.8 Individuals, % gross 9.8 -13.1 -5.2 Non-residents, % gross 10.0 -4.0 -6.7 KASE members, concluded deals 50 +11.1 -5.7 Market concentration, %* 68.6 +21.7 +21.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ *percent of total share turnover, which falls on most tradable securities (their number makes 5 % of the total of stocks, involved in deals). Tab. 2. Industrial characteristics of KASE share market* ----------------------------------------------------------------- Stake of total volume of market (%): ------------------------------------ Feb. Jan. Feb. Industry 2009 2008 2008 ---------------------------- ------------- ----------- ---------- Raw material sector 51.1 3.1 0.3 Main consumer sector 17.6 6.6 0.5 Power engineering 16.5 15.3 7.0 Industry 8.2 - - Finance 4.9 73.5 87.1 Public health 0.6 - 0.05 Telecommunications services 0.5 1.3 4.8 Discretional consumer sector 0.5 0.05 0.3 Public services >0.001 0.2 - Information technologies - - - ----------------------------------------------------------------- *Industrial classification of turnover structure has been compiled in accordance with industry Classification Standard (GICS) Standard and Poor's Tab. 3. KASE index dynamics in various periods at the moment of trade close as on February 27, 2009 (basis actual/365) ---------------------------------------- Trend in: ------------ Period % % APR --------------------------- ----- ------ For preceding 30 days -9.7 -118.3 Since the beginning of 2008 -76.2 -65.3 For last 365 days (year) -77.1 -77.1 In 2007 +12.2 +12.2 Form the beginning of 2007 -73.3 -34.0 ---------------------------------------- Tab. 4. Main indicators of exchange purchase and sale share market in February 2009 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Market Volume of Volume of capitalization, deals, deals, Number Date m. USD KASE index th. USD m. KZT of deals -------- --------------- ---------- --------- --------- -------- 30.01.09 26,661.98 622.27 12,328.2 1,497.5 102 02.02.09 25,915.11 581.14 3,154.3 384.4 95 03.02.09 25,826.83 576.89 304.2 37.2 29 04.02.09 24,586.18 656.21 4,740.1 682.5 204 05.02.09 24,195.05 665.19 3,341.8 501.2 97 06.02.09 24,130.24 672.78 2,660.2 397.8 118 09.02.09 25,154.80 686.64 14,684.9 2,180.7 117 10.02.09 25,272.43 684.18 62,754.6 9,306.5 56 11.02.09 24,836.66 691.49 6,372.5 943.8 102 12.02.09 25,049.68 682.16 16,232.0 2,408.7 81 13.02.09 24,458.47 632.07 8,168.3 1,216.3 77 16.02.09 27,626.69 633.43 207,043.8 30,872.3 60 17.02.09 27,318.80 637.65 4,466.4 666.8 78 18.02.09 26,883.29 641.26 6,250.1 933.9 71 19.02.09 26,984.19 621.44 4,736.5 705.7 81 20.02.09 26,579.94 643.19 5,565.0 831.2 67 23.02.09 26,343.20 641.03 5,200.2 780.0 40 24.02.09 25,985.44 632.52 2,672.0 401.3 33 25.02.09 26,315.34 638.85 537.2 80.6 30 26.02.09 26,113.60 639.76 706.6 106.2 26 27.02.09 26,069.83 626.84 33,090.6 4,977.8 37 -------- --------------- ---------- --------- --------- -------- Trend -592.2 4.6 % -2.2 +0.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Tab. 5. Changes in shares tradable on KASE in February 2009 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Shares: Instruments: Issuers: Admission ----------- ------------ ----------- category Numb. trend Numb. trend Numb. trend ---------------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- First 29 0 40 0 19 0 Incl. MTF KASE 28 0 28 0 18 0 Incl. STF RFCA 12 0 12 0 7 0 ---------------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- Second 39 +1 44 0 29 0 Incl. MTF KASE 32 +2 32 +2 25 +1 Incl. STF RFCA 12 -2 12 -2 8 -2 ---------------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- Third 47 +1 49 +2 41 +1 Incl. MTF KASE 40 0 40 0 35 0 Incl. STF RFCA 9 +2 9 +2 8 +2 ---------------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- Investment funds` securities 2 0 2 0 2 0 Incl. MTF KASE 1 0 1 0 1 0 Incl. STF RFCA 1 0 1 0 1 0 ---------------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- Unlisted securities 4 0 4 0 4 0 ---------------------------- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- Total 116 +1 139 +2 89 +1 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: MTF KASE - main trade floor of KASE; STF RFCA - Special Trade Floor of Regional Financial Centre of Almaty; due to STF RFCA launching securities (bonds) of one denomination the re could be two exchange instruments, different in trading code, and trading and settlements terms. Tab. 6. Results of trades in shares on KASE in February 2009 (according to data on deals, concluded on the secondary market by open trade method) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per share: ---------------------------------------------------- by last deal for last 365 days Volume Share --------------- ------------------ of deals, Number symbol min. max. price trend% min max th. USD of deals ------- -------- -------- -------- ------ -------- --------- --------- -------- aASBN 2570.0 3465.0 2650.0 +2.5 2200.0 20000.0 76.0 4 aHSBK 90.0 93.0 90.0 +8.4 83.0 460.0 45.3 2 AMGZp 25000.0 38000.0 38000.0 +173.0 13918.0 49000.0 651.4 3 ASBN 1800.0 3465.0 2300.0 -11.0 1800.0 26180.0 283.8 31 ASBNp1 3000.0 3300.0 3000.0 +9.1 2750.0 12200.0 5.2 4 ASFI 22728.0 22728.0 22728.0 0 15000.0 25000.0 32.7 3 aSHUK 31715.0 40551.0 31790.0 31715.0 40551.0 200000.0 7 ASZS 21741.0 21741.0 21741.0 21741.0 21741.0 418.7 1 ATFB 24000.0 24000.0 24000.0 7225.0 24000.0 70.0 1 ATFBp 5460.0 5460.0 5460.0 5181.8 5700.0 7.9 1 aZERD 5.0 6.1 5.0 3.5 6.7 616.0 2 BTAS 1202.0 9000.0 3850.0 -54.2 1202.0 83200.0 1956.3 189 CCBN 200.0 350.0 283.0 -38.5 200.0 2000.0 5177.9 87 DNBN 1100.0 1100.0 1100.0 1100.0 3905.0 0.0 1 EXBN 900.0 900.0 900.0 720.0 2500.0 73.3 2 GB_ENRC 670.0 781.0 670.0 +34.0 395.0 3750.0 133.5 29 GB_KZMS 416.5 640.0 570.0 +39.0 370.0 4600.0 624.7 103 HSBK 65.0 97.0 70.0 0 61.5 540.0 1015.7 143 HSBKp 104.6 112.7 104.6 +17.8 88.8 285.0 104.2 5 HSBKp1 109.1 130.0 109.1 109.1 322.0 78.8 5 KATRp 10000.0 10000.0 10000.0 10000.0 10000.0 69267.5 7 KKGB 250.0 500.0 320.0 +24.5 190.0 1100.0 4434.7 90 KKGBp 94.0 94.0 94.0 -1.1 86.4 440.0 34.2 6 KMSO 12800.0 12800.0 12800.0 0 3050.0 12800.0 31.4 1 KZTC 6700.0 6700.0 6700.0 -38.8 1417.2 21700.0 25.8 1 KZTCp 800.0 800.0 800.0 -20.0 800.0 2100.0 1.1 1 KZTK 5000.0 8100.0 7500.0 +7.1 5000.0 41000.0 1579.4 99 KZTKp 1880.5 3900.0 2750.0 -40.4 1880.5 23500.0 487.9 51 MMGZp 2728.0 3000.8 2728.0 -13.4 2000.0 20000.0 26.4 3 MREK 2400.0 2400.0 2400.0 0 2400.0 2970.0 1.0 1 NFBN 2000.0 2500.0 2000.0 -33.3 1321.0 5270.0 63.3 4 NRBN 18139.5 19900.0 19900.0 +4.7 18139.5 22727.0 412.1 3 ORDB 500.0 1999.0 500.0 -75.0 250.0 2750.0 435.0 21 ORNK 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 0.4 1 RDGZ 8605.0 11260.0 11200.0 +21.9 6201.0 24500.0 46818.4 488 SATC 71.0 92.2 83.8 -100.0 71.0 1000000.0 9114.6 9 TEBN 3300.0 4510.0 3300.0 -26.7 1785.0 8500.0 339.9 7 TEBNp 275.0 909.1 500.0 -45.1 275.0 2805.0 274.6 11 TMLZ 3500.0 5000.0 3500.0 -30.0 3500.0 5057.0 76.6 3 TSBN 601.0 659.0 659.0 -6.0 601.0 2343.0 243.1 11 UTMK 29000.0 31900.0 29000.0 -9.1 19000.0 35090.0 46.0 3 UTMKp 4998.0 4998.0 4998.0 1500.0 5000.0 30.8 1 VSTN 348000.0 348000.0 348000.0 -0.6 322000.0 360310.8 298.5 4 ZERD 6.1 6.7 6.1 0 3.5 6.7 873.5 9 ------- -------- -------- -------- ------ -------- --------- --------- -------- 44 346,287.2 1,458 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: The table provides data on the shares, in which the deals were concluded by one of the open trade methods. Trends (change in %) are provided in relation to the last deal of the preceding month (January 1 - 31, 2009). Trend is not computed, if there were no deals in the preceding month. Tab. 7. Top 10 most liquid shares of KASE in February 2009, including STF RFCA ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Liquidity indicator calculation base (Kl): ------------------------------------------ Rank --------- Liquidity volume number number Feb. Jan. Share indicator of deals, number of KASE resultant 2009 2008 symbol Kl m. KZT of deals members days ---- ---- ------- --------- ----------- ---------- -------- ---------- 1 1 RDGZ 2.59 6,894.0 488 61 19 2 2 BTAS 1.58 284.5 189 42 20 3 3 HSBK 1.41 148.2 143 42 17 4 4 KZTK 1.17 230.9 99 30 19 5 7 GB_KZMS 1.10 92.7 103 31 15 6 5 CCBN 1.010 767.1 87 24 17 7 6 KKGB 1.005 656.2 90 25 16 8 9 KZTKp 0.87 70.1 51 21 17 9 8 GB_ENRC 0.78 19.9 29 24 13 10 13 ASBN 0.64 41.8 31 14 14 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: For calculation of Kl only data on deals concluded in KASE secondary market sector by one of the open trade methods are accounted. The methodology of calculation of this indicator is available in the corresponding section of the document, released at http://www.kase.kz/mix/rsp.pdf in Russian and at http://www.kase.kz/eng/mix/rsp.pdf in English. Tab. 8. Top 10 most capitalized listing companies of KASE, shares of which were listed on the official list of securities of the Exchange (as on the moment of trades close on the indicated dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ As on 27.02.09: As on 30.01.09: Trend: --------------------- ------------------- --------------- compa- capitali- ny capitali com-y capitali- Short or contraction zation stake zation stake zation stake name of company rank m. USD % rank m. USD % m. USD pp -------------------- ---- --------- ------ ---- -------- ----- --------- ----- ENRC PLС 1 5,895.2 22.61 1 5,330.2 19.99 +565.0 +2.62 KazMunaiGas Exploration 2 5,227.7 20.05 2 5,279.3 19.80 -51.6 +0.25 production JSC ATF Bank JSC 3 4,599.1 17.64 3 2,432.0 9.12 +2 167.2 +8.52 KAZAKHMYS PLС 4 2,033.1 7.80 4 1,806.6 6.78 +226.5 +1.02 Kazkommertsbank JSC 5 1,300.1 4.99 5 1,463.6 5.49 -163.5 -0.50 Astana-finance JSC 6 1,003.9 3.85 6 1,243.3 4.66 -239.3 -0.81 Kaspi Bank JSC 7 559.1 2.14 9 692.9 2.60 -133.8 -0.45 Kazakhtelecom JSC 8 551.6 2.12 11 644.8 2.42 -93.2 -0.30 Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC 9 538.3 2.06 10 685.1 2.57 -146.8 -0.50 Nurbank JSC 10 438.2 1.68 13 589.7 2.21 -151.5 -0.53 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Notes: The company stake, % - an indicator, received by cutting off market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market share of official list of securities of KASE and expressed in percent. As on the market close February 27, 2009 this indicator made USD26,069.8 m. 100 shares of 75 issuers were listed on the official list of KASE. [2009-03-18]