ANALYSIS: in February trade activity went on falling at KASE debt capital market

/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, Akan Myrzakhmetov, March 17, 09/ - In February 2009 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 915 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almay (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT52.2 bn. or USD356.2 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 47.6 % of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in January 2009 - 66.7 %) and 2.0 % of total monthly exchange turnover (in January 1.5 %). Corporate bonds market, notwithstanding insignificant growth over the month, is still low liquid. Investors` anxieties regarding new defaults on corporate debt securities exert pressure on trade activity in this market segment. Investors took wait-and-see attitude, turning to more attractive government bonds. There is a high probability of this tendency to retain next month. The price background of corporate bonds market in February 2009 looked as follows: from 132 bonds denominations, included in deals on secondary market, with discount debt instruments of 114 denominations, with premium - 15, at face value - 3 were traded. NRBNb6 looked most re-purchased, weighted average net price of which made 122.9 %, re-sold - TSSMb1 (37.1 %). Let us remind that in January 2009 deals are conducted with bonds of 127 denominations, 100 instruments were traded with discount, with premium - 24, at face value - 2. NRBNb6 as well looked most re-purchased, weighted average net price of which made 127.2 %, re-sold - ORDBb2 (42.1 %). Weighted average net price of corporate bonds on the secondary market fell to 83.0 % compared to 89.2 % in January, 2009. For the month according to concluded deals bond's yield to maturity for buyer increased at 93 instruments (in January 2009 - at 90), decreased at 28 (in January - 27), yield of 1 instrument was nothing to compare with (in January - 1). Below are the tables, characterizing this segment of exchange market in February 2009. Tab. 1. Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in February of 2009 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trend to ------------------- Indicator Feb. 2009 Jan. 2009 Feb. 2008 ------------------------------------------- --------- --------- --------- Trades volume, th., USD 356,158.5 +12.1 % 1.9 times Trades volume, m., KZT 52,155.9 +35.3 % 2.3 times including, on offerings, th. USD - -* - including, on offerings, m. KZT - - - including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 16,194.1 0.1 times 6.7 times including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 2,417.4 0.1 times 8.3 times Number of deals 915 +1.1 % 3.7 times Day average number of deals 46 -3.8 % 4.0 times Day average volume of deals, th. USD 17,807.92 +6.7 % 2.0 times Day average volume of deals, m. KZT 2,607.80 +28.9 % 2.4 times Number of instruments, 132 +3.9 % +65.0 % involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 0.4 -1.8 pp -0.8 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.003 -0.2 pp -** Participation of pension assets, % gross 20.6 +6.2 pp -8.6 pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 9.9 -2.6 pp +3.1 pp Participation of non residents, % gross 0.01 -9.7 pp -0.4 pp Number of exchange's members, 49 -9.3 % +32.4 % who made deals Market concentration, %*** 59.6 -1.4 pp +3.7 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------- * January 2009 - $6.9 m. (KZT843.1 bn.); ** February 2008 - less than 0.0001 %; ***it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in deals) Tab. 2. Branch characteristic of trades with corporate bonds on KASE* ------------------------------------------------------------------- Stake from total volume of trades(%) in: ---------------------------------------- Branch Feb. 2009 Jan. 2009 Feb. 2008 -------------------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ Finance 65.1 85.6 92.9 Main consumer sector 20.8 6.0 0.2 Industry 8.4 4.4 1.4 Energy 3.6 0.5 0.4 Primary sector 1.1 0.8 0.3 Discretionary consumer sector 0.5 1.4 0.9 Telecommunication services 0.3 - - Utilities sector 0.1 0.6 2.9 Information technologies 0.04 0.7 1.0 Public health 0.02 - 0.01 ------------------------------------------------------------------- *branch classification of turnover structure was made in compliance with list of classification headings of Global lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standard and Poor's Tab. 3. Main indicators of KASE corporate bond market in February 2009 -------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 30.01.09 12,653.6 11.27 240.26 145.85 13,033.6 1,583.2 02.02.09 12,631.5 11.50 240.77 146.14 17,383.0 2,118.5 03.02.09 12,607.2 11.47 241.72 147.06 11,797.3 1,443.0 04.02.09 11,629.3 11.47 241.69 147.23 21,266.1 3,061.9 05.02.09 11,412.0 12.03 235.21 142.80 25,819.1 3,872.1 06.02.09 11,418.9 11.57 239.52 145.96 35,562.7 5,318.0 09.02.09 11,421.9 11.94 233.93 142.12 13,787.4 2,047.4 10.02.09 11,428.9 12.22 232.14 140.68 73,994.3 10,973.4 11.02.09 11,435.6 12.92 234.36 142.28 21,896.1 3,243.0 12.02.09 11,427.0 13.39 231.53 140.59 51,548.5 7,649.3 13.02.09 11,409.1 13.34 235.12 143.53 3,309.8 492.8 16.02.09 11,398.4 13.28 235.69 143.88 6,639.5 990.0 17.02.09 11,389.9 13.19 234.97 143.63 13,116.5 1,958.0 18.02.09 11,449.4 13.09 236.12 144.73 13,680.7 2,044.2 19.02.09 11,447.8 13.16 234.25 143.39 2,748.1 409.5 20.02.09 11,435.1 13.13 234.62 144.00 19,159.9 2,861.7 23.02.09 11,412.7 13.38 232.05 142.38 4,385.8 657.9 24.02.09 11,406.1 13.51 232.43 142.93 5,711.9 857.9 25.02.09 11,402.5 13.50 231.41 142.51 644.8 96.7 26.02.09 11,393.5 13.52 230.46 141.75 8,056.1 1,210.5 27.02.09 11,387.3 13.60 230.84 142.19 5,650.8 850.1 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend -1,266.2 +2.3 -9.4 -3.7 % -10.0 +20.7 -3.9 -2.5 -------------------------------------------------------------- Tab.4 Change of corporate bonds lists, traded on KASE, in February 2009 --------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Instruments: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Rated 23 +1 26 +1 11 +1 Incl. MTF KASE 22 +1 22 +1 10 +1 Incl. STF RFCA 4 0 4 0 2 0 ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Non-rated first subcategory 180 -2 207 -4 38 -1 Incl. MTF KASE 170 -2 170 -2 37 -1 Incl. STF RFCA 37 -2 37 -2 8 -1 ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Non-rated second subcategory 63 0 70 -2 55 -1 Incl. MTF KASE 57 -1 57 -1 49 0 Incl. STF RFCA 13 -1 13 -1 13 -1 ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Shares 1 0 1 0 1 0 Incl. MTF KASE - - - - - - Incl. STF RFCA 1 0 1 0 1 0 ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Total 265 -3 304 -5 101 0 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: MTF KASE - main trade floor of KASE; "STF RFCA" - the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Tab. 5. Summary data on deals with corporate bonds on KASE in February 2009 (purchase and sale without consideration of nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR: ----------------------------------------- For last Code of At a last deal: 365 days: Volume of bond --------------- ------------ deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals --------- ----- ------ ------ -------- ----- ------ --------- -------- aAESOb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 12.00 15.00 1,437.5 1 aAPKIb3 12.00 12.00 12.50 13,390.4 1 aASFIb4 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 13.3 1 aASFIb5 17.50 19.50 19.50 15.50 40.50 31.2 2 aASFIb7 31.00 31.00 31.00 14.00 31.00 7.6 1 aASFIb8 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 11.7 1 aASFIb9 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 7.0 1 aBTTRb1 25.00 25.00 25.00 15.99 26.00 36.4 3 aCCBNb14 18.00 18.00 18.00 +3.00 11.00 18.00 11.9 1 AGKKb1 9.50 17.50 15.50 +6.04 8.10 17.50 131.7 11 AKKMb1 8.14 8.14 8.14 -4.36 8.14 12.50 3,922.0 1 aREALb1 44.77 48.00 44.77 -3.23 9.58 48.00 1,247.0 21 ASAVb2 24.00 24.00 24.00 +2.00 10.00 24.00 13.1 1 ASBNb1 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 32.00 26.3 2 ASBNb14 8.00 8.00 8.00 0 8.00 25.00 21.6 1 ASBNb6 20.50 22.50 22.50 18.50 50.00 45.5 3 ASBNe2 38.50 64.00 64.00 12.00 94.00 126.0 16 ASELb1 20.03 20.03 20.03 12.98 20.03 405.1 2 ASFIb15 8.50 17.00 8.50 8.50 17.00 2,632.9 3 ASFIb16 9.97 17.00 10.00 0 9.97 17.00 14,730.1 11 ASFIb24 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.10 14.01 34.0 2 ASFIb4 21.00 29.10 29.10 +12.10 15.00 31.00 220.2 9 ASFIb5 15.50 36.50 36.50 +19.00 12.11 40.50 276.7 17 ASFIb6 22.00 22.00 22.00 +4.00 13.00 22.00 11.8 1 ASFIb7 21.00 31.00 31.00 12.22 31.00 62.3 7 ASFIb8 18.00 24.00 24.00 +10.00 13.00 24.00 82.9 5 ASFIb9 20.00 28.00 28.00 +10.00 7.86 32.00 29.4 5 ASNDb2 15.00 15.00 15.00 -1.00 15.00 16.00 4,667.6 1 ATFBb4 9.00 14.00 14.00 +5.00 8.00 20.00 349.8 11 ATFBb5 13.00 13.00 13.00 11.00 15.03 135.9 2 ATFBb6 9.00 16.50 10.01 +3.01 7.00 16.50 20,766.8 18 ATFBe2 15.00 25.00 23.00 +7.00 6.00 25.00 583.2 33 ATFBe4 19.00 29.00 28.25 +10.75 7.00 30.00 1,314.8 22 BTAIb1 35.00 44.00 44.00 11.50 44.00 16.2 3 BTAIb2 29.00 29.00 29.00 15.00 69.00 8.1 1 BTAIb4 40.40 70.00 70.00 +28.00 15.50 103.84 621.5 27 BTASb1 17.00 21.00 19.00 -4.00 13.50 27.33 112.8 6 BTASb4 33.60 38.00 36.62 +3.62 15.00 44.00 447.6 5 BTASb5 9.50 9.50 9.50 6.50 33.00 8,343.4 1 BTASb7 8.60 11.00 11.00 +2.40 7.00 31.00 5,227.0 14 BTASb9 11.00 17.66 15.00 +3.00 9.00 17.66 68,909.7 25 BTASe3 34.50 121.38 100.00 +43.44 13.38 121.38 1,469.4 35 BTTRb1 23.00 23.00 23.00 -4.00 6.99 27.20 14.1 1 CACMb1 29.00 40.00 40.00 +13.00 12.52 40.00 79.6 6 CCBNb12 13.10 13.10 13.10 11.00 13.10 190.4 1 CCBNb14 18.00 19.00 19.00 +2.00 9.50 19.00 29.8 3 CCBNb2 13.00 13.00 13.00 -2.56 13.00 18.00 1.2 1 CCBNb3 14.51 26.00 26.00 +4.00 13.00 26.00 30.9 3 CCBNb6 16.50 17.00 17.00 +1.62 13.50 17.00 629.5 2 CCBNb9 20.00 20.00 20.00 +1.50 13.00 22.00 8.1 1 CSBNb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 +0.50 11.00 16.00 82.5 1 CSBNb3 14.50 16.00 16.00 9.50 16.00 50.3 5 CSBNb4 14.50 17.50 17.50 10.50 20.00 140.1 13 CSBNb5 18.50 19.00 19.00 +1.00 11.00 20.50 22.4 2 CSBNb6 18.25 18.75 18.25 +0.50 9.40 18.75 371.8 4 CSBNb7 11.00 24.98 24.98 +13.98 11.00 24.98 15,599.1 5 CTECb1 13.25 15.50 15.50 13.25 15.50 10,835.8 2 DNTLb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.96 12.00 80.1 1 DTJLb1 31.55 33.00 33.00 -0.45 8.47 35.00 856.2 4 EKTNb1 47.00 47.00 47.00 +33.00 11.00 47.00 61.3 2 EUBNb3 3.19 27.87 19.00 +5.00 3.19 27.87 8,229.1 25 EUBNb4 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.00 18.00 75.9 2 EUBNb5 9.50 14.20 9.50 -3.49 9.50 14.20 11,852.2 15 EXBNb1 17.00 20.00 17.00 0 8.61 22.00 154.8 14 EXBNb2 16.00 16.04 16.00 +3.00 12.00 21.00 822.7 5 GLOTb2 41.61 100.41 89.20 -11.63 7.00 101.85 119.3 9 HSBKb10 14.50 14.50 14.50 0 8.20 20.00 48.7 6 HSBKb11 17.00 17.00 17.00 +0.50 7.50 22.00 8.4 2 HSBKb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 +1.00 10.90 14.50 29.4 3 HSBKb4 16.00 19.00 16.00 7.00 19.00 669.7 5 HSBKb7 18.50 18.50 18.50 9.50 18.50 9.2 2 HSBKb8 16.00 16.00 16.00 9.70 16.00 23.7 3 HSBKb9 13.60 20.00 18.50 +1.50 7.72 20.00 335.7 6 HSBKe1 12.00 20.67 20.00 +6.00 12.00 22.00 343.9 20 JGOKb2 7.33 7.33 7.33 6.81 12.20 30.1 2 KASSb1 10.45 11.10 10.45 +0.25 9.50 11.10 147.1 3 KATRb2 20.00 20.00 20.00 -0.03 17.00 20.03 62,031.8 7 KAZIb2 15.80 15.80 15.80 10.50 18.80 77.1 2 KDTSb1 13.40 13.40 13.40 11.00 26.00 118.7 2 KIBNb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.45 11.50 25.5 2 KKAGb1 15.00 26.00 17.00 +2.00 12.50 30.00 142.8 9 KKAGb2 11.03 29.80 15.00 9.50 29.80 3,469.6 4 KKAGb3 11.00 17.00 17.00 +4.00 11.00 23.00 123.0 8 KKAGb4 14.50 14.50 14.50 +5.83 8.67 14.50 16.7 1 KKGBb2 4.57 28.61 28.55 +15.37 -9.40 31.96 154.2 16 KKGBe4 23.27 27.12 27.12 +7.12 10.28 27.12 19.8 4 KKGBe5 22.03 27.19 27.19 +4.97 9.37 27.19 15.2 2 KKGBe6 17.77 26.39 26.39 +8.10 8.05 34.39 679.9 43 KKI_b1 12.00 16.00 16.00 12.00 16.00 28.6 2 KMSBb1 15.00 25.00 15.00 -3.02 11.00 25.00 1,537.9 5 KZASb2 10.70 12.70 12.70 +4.00 8.66 12.70 26.1 2 KZIKb16 8.99 9.00 8.99 -2.11 8.99 12.00 483.2 2 KZIKb3 14.51 14.51 14.51 -0.49 13.00 18.60 136.1 1 KZIKb4 19.50 20.50 20.50 +1.00 14.00 26.50 196.6 8 KZIKb5 15.00 16.00 15.00 10.05 16.00 5,068.0 5 KZNHb2 22.00 59.50 47.00 +25.00 14.00 61.00 731.9 42 KZTCb1 16.00 16.39 16.39 13.00 17.51 996.3 2 LOGCb1 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30 15.5 1 MREKb2 19.00 24.00 24.00 +5.00 14.00 27.00 233.1 15 MREKb5 12.50 12.50 12.50 0 12.00 14.00 219.7 2 NRBNb2 15.15 25.00 15.15 -1.85 15.00 25.00 390.4 10 NRBNb5 17.00 22.00 20.00 0 8.35 22.00 44.5 5 NRBNb6 8.00 8.00 8.00 0 7.54 14.00 513.6 5 NRBNb7 13.50 14.00 13.50 13.20 15.00 13,952.5 3 OILAb1 19.06 19.06 19.06 -1.94 18.00 21.00 139.1 1 ORDBb2 55.08 80.00 78.00 +2.67 7.00 80.00 2,381.6 4 ORDKb1 11.99 16.00 11.99 -2.01 11.95 16.00 1,234.4 13 ORDKb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 16.00 16.02 10.9 1 RESCb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 +0.02 11.50 18.00 641.4 4 RGBRb4 14.00 23.00 21.00 -2.00 6.31 23.00 5,735.3 17 RGBRb5 14.00 14.00 14.00 +5.00 9.00 14.00 188.0 1 RGBRb6 9.00 13.30 9.01 9.00 14.00 4,874.0 4 ROSAb2 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 70.5 1 SATCb1 10.00 16.00 16.00 +6.00 10.00 16.00 8,280.8 6 TEBNb13 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 2,614.9 1 TEBNb15 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 16.00 2,599.3 1 TEBNb16 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 8.50 17.00 32.3 2 TEBNb3 16.00 19.00 19.00 +5.00 12.00 19.00 63.5 6 TEBNb6 21.00 30.00 30.00 +11.00 10.50 30.00 318.2 37 TEBNb9 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 8.90 9.00 30.2 2 TSBNb2 21.00 21.00 21.00 +1.00 13.00 22.00 9.1 1 TSBNb3 19.50 21.50 21.50 +3.01 12.20 21.50 49.3 3 TSBNb4 23.00 26.00 26.00 15.99 27.00 67.9 7 TSBNb5 20.00 38.00 38.00 +19.00 11.00 38.00 261.2 26 TSBNb7 7.50 16.50 16.50 7.50 16.50 8,640.4 4 TSSMb1 69.11 80.00 80.00 +40.00 1.00 80.00 158.2 6 TXBNb2 15.00 28.00 28.00 +14.00 11.50 28.00 317.7 10 TXBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 14.50 11.9 1 US_MER_e1 10.22 15.25 10.24 10.22 23.48 16,208.0 12 VITAb4 36.00 36.00 36.00 +4.00 12.71 40.00 12.1 1 VITAb5 22.00 55.00 29.64 +7.64 12.10 55.00 1,004.9 12 ZERDb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 0 9.00 14.00 139.2 3 --------- ----- ------ ------ -------- ----- ------ --------- -------- 132 351,465.2 910 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - January 2009. [2009-03-17]