National bank of Kazakhstan describes republican financial market in 2008

/IRBIS, February 5, 09/ - The National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan disseminated the press release, dated February 4, 2009: Quotation start Payment balance. For year 2008 (according to preliminary data) payment balance current account resulted in a surplus of $8.9 bn. The export of goods amounted to $72 bn. and grew in comparison with 2007 by 49%. At that, according to the customs statistics, $43.5 bn. accounted for exports of oil and gas condensate. Imports of goods amounted to $38.5 bn., which is 15.7% higher than in 2007. About 80% of imports came to intermediate goods accounted for industrial consumption and investment goods, which volume of import in comparison with 2007 increased by 22%. According to the main nomenclature, reduction of import was observed only in the group of non-food consumer goods, the importation of the goods has decreased by 19%. The greatest increase of import is seen in the group of food products - by 33% compared with 2007. As a result, positive balance of trade transactions for 2008 totaled $33.5 bn., which is in 2.2 times higher than in 2007. For 2008 net inflow of foreign direct investments in Kazakhstan reached $12.4 bn. At continuing growth of investments of Kazakhstan residents into subsidiary foreign companies, which made $4.2 bn., positive balance on direct investing made $8.2 bn. Banks` foreign assets in the form of debt capital, provided to nonresidents grew by $1.6 bn. for 2008 and fell by $318 m. for Q4, 2008. Foreign obligations of the banks reduced by $6.9 bn., for Q4 its decreasing made $2.7 bn. REER. growing rates of KZT since 2008 led to the fact that the basic value of index of real effective exchange rate (REER), calculated as on the end of 2000 (REER Index for December 2000 = 100.0) in November 2008 was exceeded by 25.7 %. In total for January - November 2008 KZT against the group of currencies of CIS countries appreciated in real expression by 8.1 % and against the group of other countries - by 15 %. Against to the currencies of separate countries, according to preliminary data for 2008, appreciation made: USD - 7.4 %, EUR - 16.9 %, RUB - 10.7 %. Inflation. In 2008 there was inflation processes slow down in the Republic of Kazakhstan. By results of 2008, inflation made 9.5 %, what is twice more than corresponding indicator of 2007 (18.8 %). Slow down in prices growth was observed in all groups of consumer products and services, especially on food and non-food goods - by 10.8 %( by 5.7%) correspondently against 26.6 % and 10.5 % in 2007. Payable services grew - by 11.4 % (in 2007 - by 15.4 %). Gradual increasing of prices on grain and bread products - by 17.5% (in 2007 - 38.4 %), including pasta - 18.1 % (by 40.2 %), wheat flour - by 14.0% (by 66.7 %), milk and milk products - 14.8 % (by 28.8 %) made the significant influence on price reduction on food goods. The most growth of price in this group came to rice - 71.4% (in 2007 - by 11.9 %). Meat products fell - 9.6% (in 2007 - 25.1 %), fruits and vegetable - 11.1 % (21.9 %). In the group of non-food goods there was increase of prices for diesel fuel - 8.8 % (in 2007 - by 20.3 %), clothes and shoes - 8.1 % (by10.2 %). Petrol fell by 12.9 % when in 2007 it grew by 16.5 %. Decrease in the structure of payable services was conntected with considerable fell in tariffs on housing and utilities services from 18.4 % in 2007 to 8.9 % in 2008, including electricity - from 28.7 % to 13.6 %, gas supply - from 21.0 % to 10.6 %, water supply - from 12.8 % to 4.7 % correspondently. Prices and tariffs for medical services grew - by 16.1% (in 2007 - by 22.0 %). At that transport services became more expensive - by 14.8% (by 12.1 %). International reserves and monetary aggregates. Net international reserves of the National Bank in 2008 grew in the current prices by 10 % to $19.4 bn. Purchase of currency on the internal currency market, reconvertion of National Fund's assets in currency assists of national Bank and inflows of currency on the accounts of Government in the National Bank were partially neutralized by and decrease of remains on correspondent accounts of commercial banks in foreign currency in the National Bank and operations for servicing of external debt of the Government. As a result, net currency reserves (NCR) increased by 10.3 %, assets in gold increased by 8.0 % as a result of increase of its price on the world markets by 4.4 %. International reserves of the country as a whole including money of National Funds ($27.3 bn.) increased by 21.0 % to $46.7 bn. for 2008. Increasing of net internal and external assets of the National Bank for 2008 caused expanding of monetary base by 0.5 % to KZT1,471.4 bn. Narrow monetary base that means monetary base without term deposits of commercial banks in the National Bank, narrowed by 1.1 % to KZT1,438.3 bn. For 2008 money mass grew insignificantly by 35.3% to KZT6,266.4 bn., because of increase of net external assets of the banking system. Money in circulation grew by 16.0% to KZT857.8 bn. and deposits in bank system increased slightly by 39.0% to KZT5,408.6 bn. Leading rate of deposit growth compared to money growth in circulation had caused the increasing of deposits stake in the money mass structure from 84.0% in December 2007 to 86.3% in December 2008. Increase of the money mass volume at the background of monetary base expanding had caused the increase of money multiplier value form 3.16 in December 2007 to 4.26 in December 2008. Currency market. In 2008 currency market remained stable. Weighted average exchange KZT rate for 2008 made KZT120.31 per USD. Exchange rate as on the end of period made KZT120.79 per USD. Over the year, tenge depreciated against dollar by 0.41 % in nominal expression. For 2008 volume of exchange trades in USD position made $66.6 bn., having decreased by 9.1 % compared to 2007. On over-the-counter market volume of transactions for 2008 reduced by 26.5 % to $103.5 bn. compared to the previous year. The minimum volume of transactions was observed in June, maximum - in February. GS market. In 2008 the Ministry of Finance offered GS fro KZT463.2 bn., what is in 2.8 times more than in 2007. There were 49 auctions, on which all types of short-term MEKKAM and mid-term MEOKAM, long-term indexed to inflation 6 and7-years MUIKAM, long-term 6-7-years MEUKAM and long- term savings 8,9,10,14 and 15-years MEUJKAM were offered. Volume of securities of the Ministry of Finance in circulation grew by 59.6 % compared to December 2007 and made KZT816.0 bn. as on the end of December 2008. Short-term notes of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. Issue volume of short-term notes in 2008 made KZT2946.4 bn., what is in 30.7 % less than in 2007. During the year notes with 28 days, 3,6 and 12 months circulation term were issued. Volume of notes in circulation since 2008 increased by 36.3 % and totaled KZT312.2 bn. Yield on notes also increased: from 5.58 % as at the end of 2007 to 6.36 % as at the end of 2008. Inter-bank monetary market. In 2008 the total volume of offered inter-bank deposits increased compared to 2007 by 2.1 times and made in equivalent KZT86.9 trl. Volume of offered inter-bank tenge deposits increased by 38.0% and made KZT8.5 trl. (9.7% from the total volume of offered deposits in 2008). At that average weighted interest rate on offered inter-bank tenge deposits in December 2008 made 6.81 % (in December 2007 - 6.94%). The volume of deposits borrowed from the second tier banks by the National Bank increased in 2008 by 46.6 % and made KZT6.1 trl. In 2008 the volume of offered dollar deposits totaled $475.1 bn. and increased in 2 times over the year (65.7% from the total volume of offered deposits in 2008). The weighted average interest rate on offered dollar deposits in December 2008 made 0.53 %, when in December 2007 made 4.59%. The volume of offered deposits in euro compared to 2008 increased by more than 2 times and made 118.5 bn. euro (24.0% from the total volume of offered deposits in 2008). Average weighted interest rate on deposits offered in euro decreased from 3.82% in December 2007 to 2.20% in December 2008. Volumes of offering to ruble deposits remain insignificant - less than 1% from total volume of offered deposits. In the whole, the stake of inter-bank deposits in foreign currency remains high - 91.1% of the total volume of offered deposits. At that the main part of deposits in foreign currency (87.1%) is offered in the banks-nonresidents. Deposit market. The total volume of deposits of residents in the deposit organizations for 2008 increased by 39.0% to KZT5408.6 bn. At that, the deposits of legal entities compared to December 2007 grew by 60.1% to KZT3935.6 bn., deposits of individuals - by 2.8% to KZT1473.0 bn. For 2008 deposits in the national currency increased by 32.0% to KZT3491.8 bn., deposits in the foreign currency grew by 54.0% to KZT1916.8 bn. As a result, the unit weight of deposits in tenge decreased from 68.0% to 64.6%. Public deposits (with account of non-residents) in banks for 2008 increased by 3.6% to KZT1500.0 bn. For 2008, in the structure of public deposits tenge deposits decreased by 3.5% to KZT871.9 bn. and deposits in the foreign currency increased - by 15.3% to KZT628.1 bn. As a result, the unit weight of tenge deposits compared to December 2007 decreased from 62.4% to 58.1%. In December 2008, the weighted average interest rate on tenge term deposits of non-bank legal entities form 5.7% (in December 2007 - 6.1%), and on deposits of individuals -11.3% (11.5%). Credit market. The total volume of the primary debt on banks' credits to economy for 2008 has increased by 2.7% and totaled KZT7454.1 bn. Credits in the national currency for 2008 increased by 0.1% and totaled KZT4162.2 bn., credits in foreign currency increased by 6.2%, having totaled KZT3291.9 bn. As a result, the unit weight of tenge credits compared to December 2007 fell from 57.3% to 55.8 %. Long-term credits for 2008 increased by 2.3%, having totaled KZT5933.5 bn., and short-term credits increased by 4.3%, having totaled KZT1520.6 bn. As a result, the unit weight of long-term credits decreased from 79.9% to 79.6%. Credits of banks for subjects of small business for 2008 increased by 4.3% making KZT1570.7 bn. In the branch breakdown most actively are being credited such branches of economy as trade (22.8%), construction (19.6%), industry (10.2%) and agriculture (3.4%). The weighted average interest rate on credits in the national currency for non-banking legal entities increased from 14.8% in December 2007 to 16.1% in December 2008 and on credits to individuals decreased from 19.3% to 18.8%. Quotation end [2009-02-05]