ANALYSIS: in December KASE debt capital market remained low liquid

/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, January 26, 09/ - In December 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 898 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almay (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT50.1 bn. or USD415.1 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 44.2 % of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in November - 57.4 %) and 0.6 % of total monthly exchange turnover (in November 0.8 %). Volume of trades on KASE debt securities market in December 2008 grew a little relative to November, the growth was conditioned by the series of "internal deals" on December 12 and 30, 2008 (33.3 % of total volume of trades). The sector of debt securities is still low liquid. From one hand, the situation is worsened by negative influence of financial crisis on foreign and domestic markets and corresponding decreasing of attractiveness of financial sector securities, on the other hand, frequent cases of default on coupon interest payment on corporate bonds (Doszhan Temir Zholy (DTZ), Almaty distillery plant, ICKE CAT COMPANY, ROSA and Transstroimost) that scare investors and continue to decrease the low level of trade activity in this sector. The price background of corporate bonds market in December looked as follows: from 144 bonds denominations, included in deals on secondary market, with discount debt instruments of 105 denominations, with premium - 28, at face value - 11 were traded. KKGBb2 looked most re-purchased, weighted average net price of which made 129.7 %, re-sold - aHSBKb11 (52.1 %). Let us remind that in November deals are conducted with bonds of 114 denominations, 80 instruments were traded with discount, with premium - 24, at face value - 10. NRBNb6 looked most re-purchased, weighted average net price of which made 128.7 %, re-sold - HSBKb11 (51.0 %). Weighted average net price of corporate bonds on the secondary market fell to 91.9 % compared to 93.3 % in November, 2008. For the month according to conclude deals bond's yield to maturity for buyer increased at 79 instruments (in November - at 64), decreased at 49 (in November - 42), yield of 4 instruments was nothing to compare with (in November - 6). Below are the tables, characterizing this segment of exchange market in December 2008. Tab. 1. Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in December of 2008 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Trend to ------------------- Indicator Dec. 2008 Nov. 2008 Dec. 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- --------- --------- Trades volume, th., USD 415,109.2 +36.3 % +24.2 % Trades volume, m., KZT 50,080.1 +36.9 % +24.1 % including, on offerings, th. USD 0 Х* Х including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 Х** Х including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 5,046.9 7.4 times Х including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 608.1 7.5 times Х Number of deals 898 1.8 times 3.9 times Day average number of deals 45 1.9 times 3.5 times Day average volume of deals, th. USD 20,755.5 +36.4 % +11.8 % Day average volume of deals, m. KZT 2,504.0 +37.0 % +11.7 % Number of instruments, 144 +26.3 % +77.8 % involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 0.3 -1.3 pp -1.4 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.01 -0.1 pp -0.1 pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 23.6 -1.7 pp +2.1 pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 4.5 -3.6 pp +0.8 pp Participation of non residents, % gross 4.6 -1.6 pp +3.0 pp Number of exchange's members, 51 +10.9 % +30.8 % who made deals Market concentration, %*** 49.9 -3.0 pp -18.6 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------- * November 2008 volume of initial offerings of bonds made $23,793.8 th. (KZT2,861.0 m.); ** December 2007 volume of initial offerings of bonds made $63,774.7 th. (KZT7,695.1 m.); ***it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in deals) Tab. 2. Branch characteristic of trades with corporate bonds on KASE* ------------------------------------------------------------------- Stake from total volume of trades(%) in: ---------------------------------------- Branch Dec. 2008 Nov. 2008 Dec. 2007 -------------------------- ------------- ------------- ------------ Finance 84.9 80.4 89.5 Industry 6.5 8.6 2.9 Main consumer sector 4.6 5.1 4.6 Discretionary consumer sector 1.7 Х 0.01 Utilities sector 1.2 0.6 0.02 Energy 0.7 3.4 1.7 Primary sector 0.3 0.5 0.01 Public health 0.1 0.5 Х Information technologies 0.1 0.9 0.9 Telecommunication services 0.01 Х 0.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- *branch classification of turnover structure was made in compliance with list of classification headings of Global lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standard and Poor's Tab. 3. Main indicators of KASE corporate bond market in December 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 28.11.08 12,407.4 11.46 239.37 139.74 36,617.0 4,406.9 01.12.08 12,402.0 13.49 231.83 134.32 14,180.0 1,706.7 02.12.08 12,402.0 13.38 241.65 141.74 5,209.7 627.7 03.12.08 12,402.6 12.63 236.96 138.52 7,270.5 875.7 04.12.08 12,418.5 12.54 242.18 142.54 1,360.5 163.9 05.12.08 12,414.7 12.51 241.62 142.32 6,356.2 765.0 09.12.08 12,413.0 12.47 241.25 142.19 20,309.3 2,446.0 10.12.08 12,407.6 12.53 240.89 141.95 25,694.6 3,095.2 11.12.08 12,404.9 11.63 239.12 140.83 7,755.0 934.0 12.12.08 12,463.6 11.53 240.21 141.76 60,419.2 7,280.5 15.12.08 12,470.2 11.56 241.26 142.56 14,689.1 1,771.5 18.12.08 12,445.0 11.62 240.91 142.40 6,262.4 755.6 19.12.08 12,446.1 11.68 239.69 141.69 20,021.0 2,417.7 22.12.08 12,443.9 11.70 238.43 140.76 8,141.9 983.8 23.12.08 12,442.3 11.70 237.99 140.49 23,609.5 2,852.5 24.12.08 12,440.6 11.17 242.60 144.10 16,111.3 1,944.6 25.12.08 12,445.0 12.10 237.52 140.46 10,481.3 1,265.1 26.12.08 12,432.4 12.00 240.53 142.84 25,952.1 3,131.1 29.12.08 12,427.7 12.03 241.74 143.84 24,901.6 3,006.9 30.12.08 12,429.2 12.30 234.60 138.66 72,494.2 8,755.1 31.12.08 12,429.5 10.32 245.43 146.85 43,890.0 5,301.5 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +22.0 -1.1 +6.1 +7.1 % +0.2 -10.0 +2.5 +5.1 -------------------------------------------------------------- Tab. 4. Summary data on deals with corporate bonds on KASE in December 2008 (purchase and sale without consideration of nego deals) -------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR: ---------------------------------------- For last Code of At a last deal: 365 days: Volume of bond --------------- ----------- deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals -------- ------ ----- ------ -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- aAESOb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 274.3 7 aAPKIb3 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 12.00 12.50 494.7 2 aASAVb2 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 11.03 1.7 1 aASFIb5 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.50 17.6 1 ABDIb1 10.00 23.00 23.00 9.97 23.00 64.3 3 aBTTRb1 22.00 22.00 22.00 15.99 26.00 18.6 1 AGKKb1 9.50 9.50 9.50 8.10 16.00 89.5 1 aHSBKb10 12.00 12.00 12.00 8.20 16.00 13.3 1 aHSBKb11 18.00 18.00 18.00 9.50 18.00 9.7 1 AKFIb1 12.00 12.40 12.40 9.00 13.50 475.4 2 aKZIKb10 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.00 14.00 17.3 1 ALLZb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 17.4 1 aREALb1 9.58 11.97 11.97 9.58 12.00 3,801.2 2 ASAVb1 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 15.00 427.5 1 ASAVb2 10.00 20.00 18.00 10.00 20.00 594.4 18 ASBNb14 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 305.6 1 ASBNb6 22.00 22.00 22.00 +3.50 15.50 50.00 95.2 1 ASBNb8 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 18.00 2,863.5 1 ASBNe2 32.90 32.90 32.90 +0.90 12.00 32.90 25.1 1 ASELb1 12.98 13.00 12.98 12.98 14.00 290.3 3 ASFIb12 9.89 9.89 9.89 9.61 14.00 4,009.6 2 ASFIb16 10.00 15.00 10.00 -3.00 9.98 16.00 24,959.1 12 ASFIb22 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 11.00 11.00 72,217.1 8 ASFIb24 10.00 10.00 10.00 0 9.10 14.01 550.2 1 ASFIb5 15.50 32.77 15.50 0 12.11 32.77 2,293.6 22 ASFIb8 14.00 14.00 14.00 13.00 14.00 174.3 10 ASFIb9 13.13 14.00 13.13 7.86 14.00 936.2 10 ASNDb2 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 16.00 679.0 2 ATFBb4 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 15.00 51.1 1 ATFBb5 14.00 15.03 15.03 +0.03 11.00 15.03 12,467.7 2 ATFBb6 8.99 14.00 9.00 6.51 14.00 8,479.2 7 ATFBe2 9.60 19.23 16.00 -3.46 6.00 22.00 7,931.6 8 ATFBe4 17.00 18.00 17.00 -5.00 7.00 24.00 103.3 3 aZERDb1 9.00 10.00 9.00 9.00 10.00 398.5 2 BIGRb1 11.66 13.71 13.71 +4.21 9.34 13.71 321.8 3 BRKZe3 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.49 7,625.3 1 BTAIb1 16.50 16.50 16.50 7.10 16.50 41.1 2 BTAIb12 7.50 7.50 7.50 0 7.43 7.50 4,136.4 3 BTAIb2 16.85 28.00 16.86 +1.36 13.00 28.00 1,768.1 5 BTAIb3 17.18 19.00 19.00 +2.50 13.00 22.00 1,525.6 4 BTAIb4 24.00 30.00 30.00 +7.00 15.50 30.00 899.6 9 BTAIb5 16.50 16.50 16.50 14.00 16.50 12.2 1 BTAIb6 16.50 16.50 16.50 15.45 20.00 14.7 1 BTAIb8 15.50 15.50 15.50 15.00 28.00 8,184.7 2 BTASb1 17.50 23.00 17.50 -6.00 10.30 27.33 1,237.2 35 BTASb3 13.49 28.00 13.49 13.00 47.77 2,819.7 10 BTASb4 23.00 32.00 32.00 +11.00 13.00 32.00 55.7 7 BTASb5 9.50 9.50 9.50 0 6.50 9.50 116.6 2 BTASb7 7.60 13.00 7.60 -1.00 7.00 14.00 48,792.3 31 BTASb9 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 9.00 14.00 2,635.5 7 BTASe3 31.00 44.00 42.20 +5.20 13.38 44.12 747.1 46 BTTRb1 16.72 26.00 19.20 6.99 27.20 623.0 20 CACMb1 27.78 27.78 27.78 -0.02 9.80 27.80 8.6 1 CCBNb2 14.50 14.50 14.50 -0.50 13.00 18.00 12.5 1 CCBNb3 19.00 20.50 20.50 +2.00 13.00 21.43 27.5 2 CCBNb4 15.00 15.00 15.00 9.78 15.00 10.3 1 CCBNb6 15.00 15.01 15.01 13.50 16.00 5,052.8 6 CCBNb8 14.80 14.80 14.80 9.66 14.85 6,426.4 1 CSBNb2 14.50 14.50 14.50 10.85 15.50 14.1 1 CSBNb4 14.00 14.10 14.10 +0.10 10.50 14.10 3,996.9 6 CSBNb5 15.00 15.00 15.00 11.00 15.50 15.7 1 CSBNb6 13.00 13.75 13.00 +2.16 9.40 16.10 11,610.0 5 CSBNb7 11.04 11.04 11.04 11.00 14.00 8,335.6 1 CTECb1 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14,094.2 3 DNTLb1 11.96 12.00 11.96 11.96 12.00 437.5 2 DTJLb1 15.90 33.01 33.00 +2.00 8.47 33.09 7,439.7 12 EUBNb3 13.18 13.18 13.18 +2.18 9.50 15.00 2,483.6 1 EUBNb4 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.00 18.00 184.9 1 EUBNb5 13.30 10.00 13.30 8,213.6 2 EXBNb1 13.00 17.50 14.50 +1.50 8.61 22.00 15,353.4 26 EXBNb2 14.40 15.00 14.40 +1.40 12.00 21.00 1,103.3 15 GLOTb2 15.00 15.20 15.00 +1.00 7.00 30.50 293.4 3 HSBKb10 12.00 18.00 12.00 -5.00 8.20 20.00 93.8 11 HSBKb11 16.00 19.00 16.00 -6.00 7.50 22.00 47.5 5 HSBKb12 17.00 17.00 17.00 -2.00 15.00 20.00 15.4 1 HSBKb13 13.95 13.95 13.95 -0.05 13.95 14.00 19,139.7 7 HSBKb3 12.50 12.50 12.50 -1.99 10.90 14.50 3,407.3 3 HSBKb4 17.96 18.00 18.00 0 7.00 18.00 2,973.5 5 HSBKe1 12.50 14.76 14.76 +0.56 12.50 16.00 8,091.8 4 ISKEb1 13.53 13.53 13.53 13.20 14.00 149.1 1 JGOKb2 10.00 10.00 10.00 6.81 12.20 462.7 1 KAFIb1 10.00 14.00 14.00 +1.10 6.75 14.00 834.3 9 KARMb2 10.50 18.00 15.00 9.00 18.00 467.4 11 KASSb1 9.50 10.50 10.50 9.50 11.00 829.7 4 KASTb2 13.00 17.00 17.00 +4.50 9.99 20.00 305.4 7 KATRb2 20.00 20.00 20.00 +2.00 17.00 20.03 9,142.5 2 KAZIb1 16.40 16.40 16.40 11.00 16.40 42.4 1 KAZIb2 14.00 14.18 14.18 10.50 14.18 216.9 2 KDTSb1 13.40 13.40 13.40 11.00 13.40 122.9 1 KIBNb3 18.00 18.00 18.00 +4.00 12.00 18.00 300.9 1 KKAGb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 0 10.30 19.00 10.2 1 KKAGb3 13.00 13.00 13.00 11.50 21.30 78.1 4 KKAGb4 8.99 8.99 8.99 166.3 1 KKGBb2 4.80 31.96 4.80 -9.40 31.96 6,670.9 8 KKGBb4 13.00 19.50 19.50 9.50 19.50 65.2 5 KKGBb5 7.45 7.45 7.45 6.47 7.47 3,574.5 1 KKGBe4 10.28 14.58 10.28 -5.72 10.28 26.82 206.7 25 KKGBe5 9.37 13.52 9.37 -12.38 9.37 24.14 286.1 28 KKGBe6 8.05 30.71 8.05 -11.95 8.05 34.39 999.7 47 KMSBb1 11.00 18.00 18.00 11.00 18.02 3,893.2 5 KRZHb1 13.50 31.49 31.49 +22.49 6.80 31.49 267.1 2 KSMKb1 27.00 42.00 32.96 9.00 42.00 86.2 5 KSMKb2 27.00 27.00 27.00 8.77 27.00 21.2 2 KZASb2 8.68 8.70 8.68 -0.02 8.66 8.70 121.6 2 KZIKb10 12.00 13.50 13.50 -0.50 9.50 15.00 33.7 2 KZIKb12 13.00 14.00 13.00 13.00 14.00 3,421.8 5 KZIKb5 13.00 13.00 13.00 -1.00 10.05 15.65 1.2 1 KZNHb2 15.00 20.00 18.50 14.00 22.00 486.4 37 KZTCb1 15.30 17.00 17.00 13.00 17.00 37.5 3 MREKb3 8.98 9.00 9.00 +1.87 7.12 13.19 1,005.8 3 MREKb4 8.99 9.00 9.00 8.00 9.00 466.2 3 MREKb5 12.50 12.50 12.50 +0.50 12.00 14.00 43.6 3 NRBNb2 15.00 16.00 15.14 -2.86 8.99 21.00 94.2 6 NRBNb5 12.00 12.00 12.00 5.80 15.00 13.5 1 NRBNb6 8.00 9.00 8.00 0 7.74 14.00 2,102.3 18 NRBNb7 13.20 14.00 14.00 -1.00 13.20 15.00 5,230.9 2 OILAb1 19.00 19.00 19.00 0 18.00 21.00 41.5 1 ORDBb2 14.00 28.01 16.00 +2.00 7.00 32.05 442.9 18 ORDKb1 11.99 14.00 11.99 0 11.99 15.03 1,115.7 9 ORDKb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 -0.02 16.00 16.02 249.1 5 ORNKb1 9.00 28.00 9.00 0 9.00 34.80 3,026.4 21 PDESb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 9.70 12.00 2,359.1 1 RESCb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 0 11.50 17.00 250.5 4 RGBRb4 15.00 20.00 20.00 +6.00 6.31 23.00 112.4 9 RGBRb5 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 14.00 41.5 1 RGBRb6 9.00 10.50 10.50 +1.49 9.00 14.00 8,573.4 3 RMXRb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 22.00 284.4 2 SATCb1 10.00 10.10 10.00 0 10.00 14.50 290.3 7 TEBNb12 9.00 24.18 9.00 9.00 24.18 509.7 9 TEBNb16 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 7.99 13.00 21.0 3 TEBNb6 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 17.00 254.8 10 TEBNb7 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 828.8 1 TEBNb9 8.96 8.96 8.96 +0.06 8.90 9.00 615.8 2 TMLZb1 15.00 24.00 24.00 +9.60 11.00 32.50 55.3 4 TSBNb2 18.00 19.00 19.00 13.00 20.00 4,235.8 5 TSBNb3 15.50 17.50 17.50 +5.00 12.20 18.00 51.9 3 TSBNb4 23.00 23.00 23.00 0 12.00 23.00 229.1 1 TSBNb5 16.00 16.00 16.00 +1.00 11.00 20.00 14.2 1 TSSMb1 20.00 40.50 40.00 +20.00 1.00 40.50 1,022.1 43 TXBNb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 11.50 14.50 198.2 5 VITAb4 22.00 23.00 22.12 +1.12 12.71 29.00 608.9 4 VITAb5 18.00 20.00 20.00 +4.48 12.10 29.00 340.8 2 ZERDb1 9.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 10.00 1,451.1 5 -------- ------ ----- ------ -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- 143 415,070.3 895 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - November 2008. [2009-01-26]