ANALYSIS: As of December 1, 2008 state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS, along with its servicing totaled KZT1,495.0 bn. or $12,422.2 m.

/IRBIS, Raushan Tundybayeva, Ruslan Dzubaylo, December 5, 08/ - As of December 1, 2008, the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (the amount of coupon payments) made in current prices KZT1,495.0 bn., or the equivalent of $12,422.2 m. at the rate of KZT120.35 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists came to the conclusion after own databases analysis. During this analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEUJKAM and MUIKAM were calculated considering the consumer price index, which was fixed for the period from December 2007 to November 2008 inclusive. From November 1-30, 2008, the total debt in tenge equivalent increased by KZT50.7 bn. (+3.5 %), in the dollar equivalent (taking into account change in the National Bank exchange rate) by 367.1 m. (+3.0 %). Similar indicators of debt change in October made up minus KZT194.1 bn. (-11.8 %) or minus $1 617.0 m. (-11.8 %). The following table contains more detailed information. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ------------------------------ Change as of for the Currency* of Nov. 30, 08 as of period ------------- ------------------ Oct. 31, 08 --------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 412.622 27.6 340.272 +72,349.0 +21.3 ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- Ministry of 1,104.051 Finance 1,082.388 72.4 -21,662.9 -2.0 incl. face value KZT KZT 782.137 52.3 755.500 +26,636.8 +3.5 incl. servicing KZT KZT 300.251 20.1 348.551 -48,299.7 -13.9 ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ----------- --------- ----- TOTAL 1,495.010 100.0 1,444.324 +50,686.1 +3.5 incl. facevalue 1,194.759 79.9 1,095.773 +98,985.8 +9.0 incl. servicing 300.251 20.1 348.551 -48,299.7 -13.9 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of November 30, 2008 were valuated at the rate of KZT120.35 per dollar, as of October 31, 2008 - at KZT119.81. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics emerging, besides all other factors, from the rate difference. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ----------------------------- Change as of for the Currency* of Nov. 30, 08 as of period ------------- ----------------- Oct. 31, 08 ---------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ---------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 3,428.5 27.6 2,840.1 +588,412.1 +20.7 ---------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ----------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 8,993.7 72.4 9,215.0 -221,346.5 -2.4 incl. face value KZT KZT 6,498.9 52.3 6,305.8 +193,034.1 +3.1 incl. servicing KZT KZT 2,494.8 20.1 2,909.2 -414,380.7 -14.2 TOTAL 12,422.2 100.0 12,055.1 +367,065.5 +3.0 incl. face value 9,927.4 79.9 9,145.9 +781,446.2 +8.5 incl. servicing 2,494.8 20.1 2,909.2 -414,380.7 -14.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in November 2008 by offering amount was KZT206,344.3 m. (in October - KZT298,276.2 m.). At that, the issuer paid off its notes on secondary market to the sum of KZT134,980.7 m. (KZT440,307.8 m.). Thus, in November the net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market made up plus KZT71 363.6 m. The corresponding index in October made up minus KZT142 031.6 m. (the "minus" sign in the balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors, the "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). NBRK in November increased the debt sum for purpose to clean the market from surplus liquidity, coming from exporter-companies. In future, decreased prices on Kazakhstan export will likely to force NBRK to operate reverse. In November, the Ministry of Finance borrowed due to MEKAM offering KZT45,145.2 m. (in October - KZT46,173.2 m.) and paid face values of bonds and coupon payments to the sum of KZT20,901.2 m. (in October - KZT33,347.0 m.). November net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of Finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT24,244.0 m. (in October - plus KZT12,826.1 m.). Total November net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers was estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT95,607.7 m. Similar indicator of October - minus KZT129,205.4 m. IRBIS Agency draws attention of subscribers and the mass media that the data given below are not the official statistics and received as a result of the information analysis, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of the agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central Securities Depository JSC (Almaty). [2008-12-05]