ANALYSIS: KASE debt capital market sharply fell in October 2008

/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, November 26, 08/ - In October 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 572 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almay (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT44.4 bn. or USD370.2 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 71.1 % of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in September - 67.6 %) and 1.0 % of total monthly exchange turnover (1.5 %). The price background of corporate bonds market in October looked as follows: from 130 bonds denominations, included in deals on secondary market, with discount debt instruments of 104 denominations, with premium - 19, at face value - 7 were traded. KZIKb8 looked most re-purchased, weighted average price of which made 119.7 %, re-sold - HSBKb10 (56.9 %). Let us remind that in September deals are conducted with bonds of 108 denominations, 86 instruments were traded with discount, with premium - 14, at face value - 7. HSBKb4 looked most re-purchased, weighted average price of which made 121.2 %, re-sold - MAG_b1 (64.2 %). Weighted average net price of corporate bonds on the secondary market fell to 91.8 % compared to 92.6 % in September. For the month according to conclude deals bond's yield to maturity for buyer increased at 61 instruments (in September - at 51), decreased at 50 (44), yield of 7 instruments was nothing to compare with (8). In October KASE debt capital market decreased on world wide stock markets sharp fall and investors` distrust to these instruments. On the other hand, 42.4 % of deals, concluded in KASE debt security sector bear "internal" character during last month. Below are the tables, characterizing this segment of exchange market in October 2008. Tab. 1. Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in October of 2008 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: --------------------- Trend Oct. To Sept. To Oct. Indicator 2008 2008 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- ---------- ---------- Trades volume, th., USD 370,167.0 0.6 times +12.5 % Trades volume, m., KZT 44,363.0 0.6 times +11.6 % including, on offerings, th. USD - Х Х** including, on offerings, m. KZT - Х Х** including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 164,018.7 64.9 times 28.1 times including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 19,657.4 65.0 times 27.9 times Number of deals 572 +10.4 % +62.5 % Day average number of deals 26 +6.0 % +62.5 % Day average volume of deals, th. USD 16,825.8 -46.4 % +12.5 % Day average volume of deals, m. KZT 2,016.5 -46.4 % +11.6 % Number of instruments, 130 +20.4 % +15.0 % involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.2 -0.1 pp -1.3 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.9 -0.8 pp -0.2 pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 9.3 -10.7 pp -15.1 pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 15.1 -15.4 pp -2.9 pp Participation of non residents, % gross 12.1 +8.0 pp -1.8 pp Number of exchange's members, 48 -2.0 % +23.1 % who made deals Market concentration, %* 62.3 +1.0 pp -12.0 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in deals) **In October 2007 volume of initial offerings on bonds market made $3.7 m. (KZT446.9 m.). Tab. 2. Branch characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE* ------------------------------------------------------------------ Stake from total market volume (%) in: ----------- ------------ ----------- Branch Oct. 2008 Sept. 2008 Oct. 2007 -------------------------- ----------- ------------ ----------- Industry 48.3 5.2 5.1 Finance 45.1 82.5 89.3 Main consumer sector 2.2 0.1 3.1 Energy 2.1 4.6 0.2 Information technologies 0.9 Х 0.01 Discretionary consumer sector 0.7 0.1 Х Public health 0.3 0.03 0.01 Utilities sector 0.3 7.2 2.2 Primary sector 0.2 0.1 Х Telecommunication services 0.03 Х 0.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------ *branch classification of turnover structure was made in compliance with list of classification headings of Global lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standard and Poor's Tab.3 Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in October 2008 --------------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Instruments: Issuers: Category of ------------- ------------- ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Rated 22 +2 25 +2 10 0 Incl. MTF KASE 21 +2 21 +2 9 0 Incl. STF RFCA 4 0 4 0 2 0 ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Non-rated 173 +2 208 +2 36 0 first subcategory Incl. MTF KASE 165 +2 165 +2 35 0 Incl. STF RFCA 43 0 43 0 9 0 ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Non-rated 65 -1 74 -1 56 -1 second subcategory Incl. MTF KASE 61 -1 61 -1 52 -1 Incl. STF RFCA 13 0 13 0 13 0 ------------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- Total 260 +3 307 +3 102 -1 --------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: MTF KASE - main trade floor of KASE; "STF RFCA" - the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Tab. 4. Main indicators of KASE corporate bond market in October 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 30.09.08 12,483.7 11.17 257.68 152.44 35,971.5 4,310.8 01.10.08 12,480.9 11.04 256.73 151.68 2,694.6 323.3 02.10.08 12,489.5 11.04 257.41 151.86 4,050.6 486.1 03.10.08 12,541.9 11.03 256.51 151.11 14,044.4 1,684.9 06.10.08 12,541.4 11.02 255.82 150.53 11,796.8 1,415.4 07.10.08 12,538.2 11.02 255.48 150.25 10,218.1 1,226.6 08.10.08 12,543.0 11.03 255.14 149.97 3,687.7 442.3 09.10.08 12,548.2 11.13 254.12 149.37 154.7 18.5 10.10.08 12,548.2 11.09 254.56 149.59 160,867.7 19,280.0 13.10.08 12,548.2 11.32 252.19 147.80 10,757.2 1,289.2 14.10.08 12,547.1 11.23 253.84 148.91 9,565.8 1,146.7 15.10.08 12,536.9 11.24 252.75 148.12 3,903.1 467.6 16.10.08 12,539.6 11.24 251.91 147.54 12,271.3 1,469.4 17.10.08 12,388.5 11.24 250.36 146.49 15,910.2 1,905.4 20.10.08 12,411.8 11.25 248.84 145.39 9,750.5 1,167.7 21.10.08 12,411.8 11.27 249.20 145.54 1,217.7 145.8 22.10.08 12,410.1 11.38 246.17 143.35 23,002.6 2,755.5 23.10.08 12,409.6 11.34 245.33 142.82 1,863.6 223.3 24.10.08 12,410.7 11.28 245.29 142.83 16,740.0 2,005.1 28.10.08 12,408.5 11.23 244.88 142.54 8,135.7 974.8 29.10.08 12,409.1 11.16 244.14 142.00 11,213.4 1,343.5 30.10.08 12,409.1 13.42 235.97 136.09 16,231.7 1,944.7 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend -74.6 +2.2 -21.7 -16.4 % -0.6 +20.1 -8.4 -10.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Tab. 5. Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in October 2008 (purchase and sale without consideration of nego deals) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR: --------------------------------------------- For Code of At a last deal: last 365 days: Volume of bond --------------- -------------- deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield Trend, % min. max. th. USD Of deals --------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- aAESOb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 0 15.00 15.00 266.7 1 aAPKIb1 14.97 15.00 14.97 14.97 15.07 78,325.9 6 aAPKIb2 14.98 15.00 14.98 14.98 15.06 78,719.2 6 aAPKIb3 12.50 12.50 12.50 4,154.4 18 aASFIb7 20.00 20.00 20.00 +2.0 14.00 20.00 18.1 2 aBTTRb1 26.00 26.00 26.00 +6.0 15.99 26.00 13.0 2 AGKKb1 10.50 10.50 10.50 -0.7 8.10 16.00 2,657.0 1 aHSBKb10 14.00 16.00 14.00 8.20 16.00 22.7 2 aHSBKb11 14.00 14.00 14.00 9.50 14.00 23.5 2 aHSBKb4 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 20.9 1 aHSBKb7 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 11.8 1 aHSBKb9 13.23 13.23 13.23 13.23 13.23 12.3 1 AKFIb1 9.00 13.50 13.50 +1.1 9.00 13.50 853.0 3 AKKMb1 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 12.50 2,093.7 1 aREALb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 2,430.1 1 ASBNb1 25.00 32.00 25.00 -7.0 15.00 111.04 3,377.1 10 ASBNb10 15.00 20.00 15.00 0 9.75 20.00 155.2 2 ASBNb3 20.00 20.00 20.00 14.50 22.00 32.1 2 ASBNb6 20.50 20.50 20.50 -29.5 15.50 50.00 11.5 1 ASFIb10 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.12 14.00 819.7 1 ASFIb11 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.48 16.00 329.2 1 ASFIb16 10.00 10.00 10.00 -5.0 9.98 16.00 23.5 1 ASFIb24 12.00 9.10 14.01 3,082.3 2 ASFIb3 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 6.00 16.00 37.4 2 ASFIb4 17.00 17.00 17.00 11.00 17.00 57.7 1 ASFIb5 13.50 15.50 13.50 -2.0 12.11 15.50 304.4 5 ASFIb6 16.00 16.00 16.00 12.00 16.00 17.4 1 ASFIb7 20.00 21.00 21.00 +1.0 11.00 21.00 79.4 6 ASFIb8 14.00 14.00 14.00 9.00 15.00 15.8 1 ATFBb3 10.00 11.49 11.49 +1.0 7.51 14.00 260.8 2 ATFBb4 12.00 14.00 14.00 +2.5 8.32 15.00 114.9 3 ATFBb5 13.00 15.00 15.00 11.00 15.00 28.8 2 ATFBb6 9.00 9.00 9.00 -0.1 6.21 11.00 8,468.4 1 ATFBe2 6.00 22.00 20.00 6.00 22.00 228.5 18 BGSTb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 -2.2 11.00 13.25 1,161.9 1 BIGRb1 9.50 11.00 9.50 -2.3 9.34 13.50 4,659.1 2 BTAIb1 14.00 14.50 14.50 +0.5 7.10 14.50 26.4 2 BTAIb12 7.50 7.50 7.50 0 7.45 7.50 3,289.8 2 BTAIb2 15.00 15.00 15.00 13.00 15.00 16.3 1 BTAIb3 14.50 14.50 14.50 12.70 16.50 11.7 2 BTAIb4 18.00 19.50 19.50 +3.5 12.83 106.15 76.7 5 BTAIb5 14.00 14.12 14.12 13.00 101.34 28.3 2 BTAIb8 15.00 15.00 15.00 13.00 15.01 13.7 1 BTASb1 16.00 19.50 19.50 +3.5 10.30 27.33 80.2 4 BTASb2 15.00 16.50 16.50 +2.0 13.00 17.50 70.0 6 BTASb3 13.50 13.50 13.50 10.90 47.77 1,242.9 2 BTASb4 18.46 23.00 23.00 +4.7 11.20 47.47 167.9 7 BTASb5 8.50 9.00 9.00 6.50 9.50 44.2 3 BTASb7 8.34 14.00 14.00 +5.8 6.73 14.00 10,011.2 15 BTASb9 11.00 14.00 14.00 +3.0 9.00 14.00 11,153.1 8 BTASe3 13.38 26.57 26.57 13.38 26.57 126.4 10 BTTRb1 22.00 26.00 22.06 +1.1 6.99 26.00 386.3 7 CCBNb17 9.00 17.00 17.00 9.00 17.00 92.4 6 CCBNb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 12.50 106.23 8.4 2 CCBNb3 15.00 15.00 15.00 9.00 20.93 768.1 5 CCBNb9 14.50 14.50 14.50 0 7.50 14.50 13.1 1 CSBNb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 0 10.10 15.22 14.6 1 CSBNb3 10.50 12.50 12.50 9.50 14.00 118.4 8 CSBNb4 13.90 14.00 14.00 +0.5 10.50 14.00 185.3 3 CSBNb5 14.00 14.00 14.00 10.00 15.00 1,298.2 3 CSBNb6 11.00 13.25 11.00 -2.4 9.40 16.10 8,360.4 2 EKTNb1 12.00 14.00 12.00 -2.0 11.00 14.11 2,884.3 2 ELDSb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 -2.9 11.00 13.90 1,014.4 1 EUBNb3 11.00 14.25 11.00 -2.0 9.50 15.00 11,546.4 11 EUBNb4 11.00 11.00 11.00 -1.0 9.00 18.00 29.4 1 EUBNb5 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.30 5,106.5 1 EXBNb1 13.00 17.20 17.20 +3.7 8.61 22.00 1,849.5 18 GLOTb2 14.00 17.00 15.00 7.00 17.00 3,359.7 9 HSBKb10 14.00 20.00 14.50 +2.5 8.20 20.00 164.2 16 HSBKb11 14.00 20.00 14.50 7.50 22.00 180.2 14 HSBKb12 15.00 20.00 18.00 11.00 20.00 58.7 4 HSBKb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 +2.4 10.01 93.00 15.9 1 HSBKb7 16.00 16.50 16.50 +5.5 9.25 17.50 21.9 2 HSBKb8 12.00 16.00 12.00 9.48 16.00 53.0 4 HSBKb9 10.69 16.00 10.69 7.72 16.00 2,294.7 2 HSBKe1 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 14.1 1 KAFIb1 12.50 12.50 12.50 -0.5 6.75 13.00 4,196.7 4 KASTb2 13.00 20.00 13.00 +2.5 9.99 20.00 188.9 2 KATRb2 17.00 18.00 18.00 17.00 18.00 4,171.3 2 KAZIb1 16.40 16.40 16.40 11.00 16.40 33.3 1 KAZIb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 0 10.50 14.00 24.7 1 KIBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 0 12.00 14.10 4,599.4 3 KKAGb1 14.50 14.75 14.75 +0.3 10.30 19.00 74.1 3 KKAGb3 12.50 12.50 12.50 11.50 21.30 19.5 1 KKGBb2 29.59 30.62 29.59 -1.7 -9.40 31.30 20.2 2 KKGBe4 13.89 21.41 21.41 13.89 22.75 1,490.3 8 KKGBe5 14.61 23.72 23.72 14.61 23.72 43.8 7 KKGBe6 14.18 34.39 28.74 10.20 34.39 445.8 32 KMSBb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 2,618.0 2 KONDb1 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 5.03 93.9 1 KRZHb1 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 15.00 499.3 1 KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.66 8.70 19.1 1 KZIKb18 10.25 10.25 10.25 0 7.00 14.00 16,545.5 4 KZIKb2 19.16 19.16 19.16 13.40 19.16 3.8 1 KZIKb3 13.00 15.10 15.10 +0.1 13.00 18.60 79.4 2 KZIKb4 15.00 15.00 15.00 11.40 101.09 21.0 1 KZIKb7 13.00 18.28 13.80 0 11.50 18.28 21,028.0 15 KZIKb8 12.00 14.50 13.50 -0.8 7.00 16.50 8,229.4 7 KZNHb2 15.00 15.00 15.00 +0.1 12.00 16.00 21.4 1 KZTCb1 13.00 13.52 13.52 13.00 13.52 96.3 8 LOGCb1 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30 79.6 2 MREKb2 17.00 19.00 18.60 +1.3 11.00 19.00 107.1 6 NFBNb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 -3.4 9.51 20.06 1,840.4 2 NRBNb4 11.00 15.00 13.00 -1.3 9.00 19.50 6,242.0 31 ORDBb2 7.00 15.00 7.00 -6.0 7.00 16.00 7,355.8 10 ORDKb1 12.20 14.00 14.00 2.0 11.99 15.03 63.6 4 ORDKb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 16.00 16.02 742.8 6 ORNKb1 10.00 29.00 10.00 -21.4 10.00 34.80 5,904.8 16 RESCb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 0 12.07 17.00 168.4 2 RGBRb4 13.00 14.00 13.00 6.31 15.50 307.1 2 RGBRb6 9.00 9.01 9.01 9.00 14.00 3,246.8 4 TEBNb15 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 1,819.4 1 TEBNb16 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 7.99 13.00 7.6 2 TEBNb17 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 4,645.7 1 TEBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 0 9.00 14.00 8.3 1 TEBNb6 10.50 10.50 10.50 0 9.50 10.50 104.0 2 TKUDb1 14.50 25.00 14.50 9.00 25.00 741.2 2 TMLZb1 11.00 13.00 13.00 +2.0 11.00 14.40 153.6 6 TSBNb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 10.74 16.00 13.1 1 TSBNb3 12.50 18.00 12.50 +0.3 11.03 18.00 1,663.3 7 TSBNb4 17.50 17.50 17.50 +0.5 9.02 23.00 14.0 1 TSBNb5 16.00 18.00 17.00 -1.0 10.00 20.00 529.1 9 TSBNb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.5 1 TSNAb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 11.00 6,441.3 1 TSSMb1 11.90 18.00 13.90 1.00 30.00 709.5 19 US_JPM_e1 17.10 17.10 17.10 +0.5 16.64 17.10 250.1 1 US_MER_e1 10.63 10.63 10.63 -12.8 8.00 23.48 16.4 1 VITAb4 17.00 19.00 19.00 0 12.00 29.00 5.9 3 VITAb5 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 12.10 29.00 49.5 3 --------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- 129 366,887.8 565 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - September 2008. [2008-11-26]