ANALYSIS: As of November 1, 2008 state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS, along with its servicing totaled KZT1,444.3 bn. or $12,055.1 m.

/IRBIS, Raushan Tundybayeva, Ruslan Dzubaylo, November 26, 08/ - As of November 1, 2008, the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (the amount of coupon payments) made in current prices KZT1,444.3 bn., or the equivalent of $12,055.1 m. at the rate of KZT119.84 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists came to the conclusion after own databases analysis. During this analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEUJKAM and MUIKAM were calculated considering the consumer price index, which was fixed for the period from November 2007 to October 2008 inclusive. From October 1-31, 2008, the total debt in tenge equivalent decreased by KZT194.1 bn. (-11.8 %), in the dollar equivalent (taking into account change in the National Bank exchange rate) by 1 617.0 m. (-11.8 %). Similar indicators of debt change in September made up plus KZT64.1 bn. (+4.1 %) or plus $502.0 m. (+3.8 %). The following table contains more detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt Change ------------------------------- as of for the *Currency of Oct. 31, 08 as of period ------------- ------------------ Sept. 30, 08 ---------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 340.272 23.6 480.030 -139,757.3 -29.1 ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----- Ministry of 1,158.441 Finance 1,104.051 76.4 -54,390.2 -4.7 incl. face value KZT KZT 755.500 52.3 739.929 +15,571.1 +2.1 incl. servicing KZT KZT 348.551 24.1 418.512 -69,961.3 -16.7 ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------ ---------- ----- TOTAL 1,444.324 100.0 1,638.471 -194,147.4 -11.8 incl. facevalue 1,095.773 75.9 1,219.959 -124,186.1 -10.2 incl. servicing 348.551 24.1 418.512 -69,961.3 -16.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of October 31, 2008 were valuated at the rate of KZT119.81 per dollar, as of September 30, 2008 - at KZT119.84. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics emerging, besides all other factors, from the rate difference. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt Change ------------------------------ as of for the *Currency of Oct. 31, 08 as of period ------------- ----------------- Sept. 30, 08 ------------------ Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ---------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ------------ ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,840.1 23.6 4,005.6 -1,166,198.9 -29.1 ---------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ------------ ------------ ----- Ministry of Finance 9,215.0 76.4 9,666.6 -453,856.6 -4.7 incl. face value KZT KZT 6,305.8 52.3 6,174.3 +129,932.7 +2.1 incl. servicing KZT KZT 2,909.2 24.1 3,492.3 -583,789.3 -16.7 TOTAL 12,055.1 100.0 13,672.2 -1,620,055.5 -11.8 incl. face value 9,145.9 75.9 10,179.9 -1,036,266.2 -10.2 incl. servicing 2,909.2 24.1 3,492.3 -583,789.3 -16.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in October 2008 by offering amount was KZT298,276.2 m. (in September - KZT317,999.9 m.). At that, the issuer paid off its notes on secondary market to the sum of KZT440,307.8 m. (KZT276,662.8 m.). Thus, in October the net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market made up minus KZT142,031.6 m. The corresponding index in September made up plus KZT41,337.1 m. (the "minus" sign in the balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors, the "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). The second wave of world wide financial crunch started and developed in September and August of current year, according to majority of experts. The range of bankruptcies in the USA and bad news led to the change of relation of the world wide financial organizations to the crunch. Foreign monetary markets turned out to be in difficult situation: activity had decreased significantly and rates on short money grew significantly. It surely affected Kazakhstan. But the head bank of the country, foreseeing such situation, conducted October policy regarding supplementation of market liquidity. In particular, capitalization of notes in circulation was reduced three times. In October, the Ministry of Finance borrowed due to MEKAM offering KZT46,173.2 m. (in September - KZT46,531.4 m.) and paid face values of bonds and coupon payments to the sum of KZT33,347.0 m. (in September - KZT10,241.8 m.). October net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of Finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT12,826.1 m. (in September - plus KZT48,522.5 m.). Total October net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT129,205.4 m. Similar indicator of September - plus KZT89,859.6 m. IRBIS Agency draws attention of subscribers and the mass media that the data given below are not the official statistics and received as a result of the information analysis, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of the agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central Securities Depository JSC (Almaty). [2008-11-26]