ANALYSIS: KASE debt capital market grows in September 2008

23.10.08 21:50
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, October 23, 08/ - In September 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 518 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almay (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT79.0 bn. or USD660.3 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 67.6 % of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in August - 20.6 %) and 1.5 % of total monthly exchange turnover (0.5 %). Growth of turnover of KASE debt securities market in September relative to the same indicator in August happened on deterioration of investment moods on the equity securities market, aroused by bankruptcy of largest backbone financial institutions (see ANALYSIS: In September capitalization of KASE share market has decreased by 35 %). During the analyzed period quotations of most liquidity shares decreased significantly, investors reduced activity in this sector of KASE market, temporally returning to debt securities sector. On the other hand growth of volume of trades in September was conditioned by a number of "domestic deals" on September 25 and 26 (49 % of total market turnover). The price background of corporate bonds market in September looked as follows: from 108 bonds denominations, included in deals on secondary market, with discount were traded debt instruments of 86 denominations, with premium - 14, at face value - 7. HSBKb4 looked most re-purchased, weighted average price of which made 121.2 %, re-sold - MAG_b1 (64.2 %). Let us remind that in August deals are conducted with bonds of 83 denominations, with discount were traded 66 instruments, with premium - 16. KKGBb2 looked most re-purchased, weighted average price of which made 129.7 %, re-sold - ASFIb10 (69.1 %). Weighted average net price of corporate bonds on the secondary market fell to 92.6 % compared to 93.8 % in August. For the month according to conclude deals bond's yield to maturity for buyer increased at 51 instruments (in August - at 42), decreased at 44 (30), yield of 8 instruments was nothing to compare with (1). Below are the tables, characterizing this segment of exchange market in September 2008. Tab. 1. Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in September of 2008 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: --------------------- Trend Sept. To Aug. To Sept. Indicator 2008 2008 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- ---------- ----------- Trades volume, th., USD 660,289.3 +4.0,times -1.7,% Trades volume, m., KZT 79,058.5 +4.0,times -3.4,% including, on offerings, th. USD - Х Х including, on offerings, m. KZT - Х Х including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 2,525.8 -8.1,times -19.5,times including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 302.3 -8.1,times -19.9,times Number of deals 518 +67.6,% +28.9,% Day average number of deals 25 +67.2,% +28.1,% Day average volume of deals, th. USD 31,419.4 +4.0,times -1.8,% Day average volume of deals, m. KZT 3,762.0 +4.0,times -3.5,% Number of instruments, 108 +30.1,% -4.4,% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.4 +0.1,pp +1.1,pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 1.6 -6.3,pp +1.6,pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 19.9 +6.4,pp +8.9,pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 30.5 +15.3,pp +29.0,pp Participation of non residents, % gross 4.1 -12.8,pp -21.3,pp Number of exchange's members, 49 +19.5,% +48.5,% who made deals Market concentration, %* 61.3 +14.7,pp -15.6,pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in deals) Tab. 2. Branch characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE* ------------------------------------------------------------------ Stake from total market volume (%) in: ------------ ----------- ----------- Branch Sept. 2008 Aug. 2008 Sept. 2007 -------------------------- ------------ ----------- ----------- Finance 82.5 81.1 92.9 Utilities sector 7.2 0.3 0.4 Industry 5.2 5.9 2.0 Energy 4.6 2.3 1.4 Main consumer sector 0.1 7.7 1.6 Primary sector 0.1 2.5 1.5 Discretionary consumer sector 0.1 0.04 0.01 Public health 0.03 Х 0.05 Information technologies Х Х 0.01 Telecommunication services Х Х 0.04 ------------------------------------------------------------------ *branch classification of turnover structure was made in compliance with list of classification headings of Global lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standard and Poor's Tab. 3. Main indicators of KASE corporate bond market in September 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 29.08.08 12,369.2 10.93 265.89 158.60 4,817.3 575.9 02.09.08 12,355.0 11.23 266.88 159.32 252.2 30.2 03.09.08 12,366.2 11.24 266.41 159.06 437.0 52.3 04.09.08 12,370.4 10.85 265.78 158.44 30,120.4 3,605.1 05.09.08 12,374.1 10.85 265.30 158.06 10,593.0 1,267.1 08.09.08 12,377.4 10.69 266.78 159.03 13,905.2 1,663.3 09.09.08 12,372.6 10.66 264.26 157.22 11,719.7 1,403.0 10.09.08 12,404.1 11.37 261.53 155.23 17,350.8 2,075.3 11.09.08 12,416.9 11.30 263.73 156.74 33,824.2 4,045.0 12.09.08 12,422.7 11.32 262.92 156.17 17,718.1 2,117.0 15.09.08 12,418.2 10.80 263.72 156.60 36,448.3 4,355.2 16.09.08 12,418.7 10.78 263.05 156.19 13,163.3 1,572.8 17.09.08 12,409.7 10.87 261.11 154.79 3,756.4 449.5 18.09.08 12,399.1 10.88 260.95 154.65 9,144.6 1,096.0 19.09.08 12,401.7 11.36 258.13 152.83 10,365.8 1,241.8 22.09.08 12,406.0 11.27 259.43 153.41 1,891.5 226.4 23.09.08 12,424.4 11.21 258.43 152.72 206.4 24.7 24.09.08 12,422.3 11.19 258.40 152.71 28,366.8 3,396.6 25.09.08 12,420.1 10.47 261.21 154.53 184,413.5 22,089.0 26.09.08 12,419.1 11.90 255.00 150.23 135,294.2 16,208.2 29.09.08 12,485.3 11.23 258.15 152.39 64,864.7 7,771.4 30.09.08 12,483.7 11.17 257.68 152.44 35,971.5 4,310.8 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +114.5 +0.2 -8.2 -6.2 % +0.9 +2.2 -3.1 -3.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Tab. 4. Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in September 2008 (purchase and sale without consideration of nego deals) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR: --------------------------------------------- For Code of At a last deal: last 365 days: Volume of bond --------------- -------------- deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield Trend, % min. max. th. USD Of deals --------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- aAESOb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 0 15.00 15.00 858.3 1 aAPKIb3 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 1,002.5 1 aASFIb7 16.00 18.00 18.00 11.80 20.00 63.9 4 aBTTRb1 16.95 20.00 20.00 +0.40 9.08 20.00 119.4 6 AGKKb1 11.15 11.15 11.15 -2.85 8.10 16.00 484.5 6 AKFIb1 9.00 12.40 12.40 9.00 13.50 605.7 2 ALBNb2 12.75 12.75 12.75 12.00 12.75 2,900.4 2 ASBNb1 23.50 32.00 32.00 +8.50 10.50 111.04 135.8 5 ASBNb10 15.00 15.00 15.00 +5.25 9.75 15.00 13.9 2 ASBNb6 20.50 50.00 50.00 9.50 50.00 4,639.5 7 ASFIb12 9.61 14.00 14.00 8.43 14.00 5,007.4 3 ASFIb13 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 9.00 14.22 39.3 2 ASFIb16 15.00 15.00 15.00 +0.50 14.00 16.00 334.3 1 ASFIb24 9.10 14.01 12.00 9.10 14.01 25,891.9 10 ASFIb3 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 6.00 16.00 2,777.7 1 ASFIb5 15.50 15.50 15.50 +0.04 12.11 15.50 8.7 1 ASFIb7 16.00 20.00 20.00 11.00 21.00 198.2 6 ASFIb9 13.00 13.00 13.00 7.86 15.50 883.7 1 ATFBb3 10.00 12.50 10.45 -1.55 7.51 14.00 1,270.1 10 ATFBb4 11.50 12.00 11.50 -0.50 7.50 15.00 1,851.2 3 ATFBb6 8.99 9.07 9.07 6.21 11.00 15,440.4 3 BGSTb1 13.00 13.25 13.25 13.00 13.25 1,702.0 2 BIGRb1 10.46 11.79 11.79 +0.21 9.34 13.50 2,188.5 3 BTAIb1 12.00 14.00 14.00 7.10 14.00 488.2 3 BTAIb12 7.50 7.50 7.50 0 7.45 7.50 3,271.7 3 BTAIb14 9.50 9.50 9.50 8.50 13.50 18.4 1 BTAIb16 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 20.8 1 BTAIb4 16.00 18.00 16.00 -1.95 10.00 106.15 1,244.5 6 BTASb1 15.00 17.00 16.00 10.30 27.33 201.9 7 BTASb2 14.00 14.50 14.50 11.50 17.50 61.0 4 BTASb4 17.00 18.40 18.34 +0.34 11.20 47.47 512.3 8 BTASb7 7.00 13.50 8.20 +0.60 6.73 14.00 266,844.5 38 BTASb9 10.80 11.00 11.00 +2.00 9.00 13.00 27,271.4 7 BTTRb1 17.00 25.00 21.00 +4.00 6.99 25.00 42,764.0 61 CACMb1 19.73 19.80 19.80 +0.27 9.80 19.80 14.0 2 CCBNb14 15.00 15.00 15.00 7.50 18.00 0.7 1 CCBNb6 14.50 14.50 14.50 -0.47 7.50 16.00 27.9 1 CCBNb9 14.50 14.50 14.50 0 7.50 14.50 25.9 1 CSBNb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 10.10 15.22 59.5 1 CSBNb4 13.50 13.50 13.50 10.50 14.00 3,161.3 3 CSBNb6 12.75 13.35 13.35 -0.90 9.40 16.10 422.7 4 CSBNb7 12.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 14.00 23,120.3 5 DTJLb1 22.00 28.00 22.00 -10.68 7.00 32.68 27,580.8 40 EKTNb1 14.00 14.00 14.00 11.00 14.11 167.3 1 ELDSb1 13.00 13.90 13.90 13.00 13.90 175.7 2 EUBNb3 13.00 14.00 13.00 9.50 15.00 4,844.2 3 EUBNb4 12.00 12.00 12.00 -0.30 9.00 18.00 54.5 1 EXBNb1 8.61 13.50 13.50 8.61 22.00 24,787.3 26 EXBNb2 13.00 13.50 13.50 -0.10 12.00 21.00 2,504.2 2 HSBKb10 12.01 12.03 12.03 +0.03 8.20 12.03 1.8 3 HSBKb3 11.58 11.58 11.58 9.12 93.00 2,605.7 2 HSBKb4 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.00 10.80 108.4 1 HSBKb7 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.25 12.50 2.4 1 KAFIb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 6.75 13.00 19.9 1 KARMb2 10.50 10.50 10.50 8.00 12.00 71.1 1 KASTb2 10.50 12.00 10.50 -0.48 9.99 20.00 16.2 3 KAZIb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 10.50 14.00 149.4 1 KIBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 -0.10 12.00 14.10 2,371.2 1 KKAGb1 14.50 14.50 14.50 0 10.30 19.00 97.7 3 KKAGb2 10.50 10.50 10.50 7.50 10.50 14.6 1 KKGBb2 28.97 31.30 31.30 +40.70 -9.40 31.30 254.6 5 KKGBb4 13.00 13.00 13.00 +3.50 9.50 13.73 106.6 1 KKGBb6 9.80 9.80 9.80 9.80 11.50 586.3 1 KSM2b1 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 16.00 16.00 84.6 1 KSMKb1 19.00 19.00 19.00 9.00 19.00 319.6 1 KZDKb1 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 167.4 1 KZIKb10 12.00 14.00 12.00 9.00 15.00 110.5 2 KZIKb3 13.00 16.65 15.00 -3.60 11.00 18.60 217.2 4 KZIKb6 16.50 16.50 16.50 -1.70 11.00 18.20 26.0 1 KZIKb7 11.50 13.79 13.79 11.50 17.60 21,504.7 20 KZIKb8 14.00 16.50 14.25 -0.85 7.00 16.50 15,500.9 17 KZNHb2 14.90 14.90 14.90 -0.17 12.00 16.00 41.7 1 MAG_b1 31.99 31.99 31.99 12.00 31.99 771.5 1 MREKb2 17.30 19.00 17.30 +0.30 11.00 19.00 2,099.3 6 MREKb3 9.00 13.19 13.19 9.00 13.19 325.7 3 NFBNb1 13.40 13.40 13.40 -0.20 9.51 20.06 12,089.4 3 NRBNb4 9.24 14.50 14.30 +1.80 9.00 19.50 5,194.3 4 NRBNb6 9.00 13.70 13.70 9.00 14.00 7,034.6 2 OILAb1 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 416.6 1 ORDBb2 9.00 15.00 13.02 9.00 15.00 29,630.0 25 ORDKb1 11.99 15.00 12.00 -2.00 11.99 15.03 762.9 10 ORDKb2 16.00 16.02 16.00 16.00 16.02 601.7 2 ORNKb1 17.70 34.80 31.38 +5.58 10.00 34.80 634.4 10 PDESb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 9.70 12.00 2,406.4 1 RESCb1 12.07 17.00 15.00 -1.00 12.07 17.00 2,275.5 5 ROSAb2 13.50 13.50 13.50 10.50 13.50 57.9 1 TEBNb11 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 5,206.1 1 TEBNb12 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13,139.0 2 TEBNb16 8.50 13.00 8.50 7.99 13.00 8,156.1 4 TEBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 +2.00 9.00 14.02 846.9 2 TEBNb5 11.00 11.00 11.00 -2.00 9.50 13.50 21.3 2 TEBNb6 10.50 10.50 10.50 9.38 10.50 1,406.6 1 TEBNb9 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.99 9.00 67.2 1 TMLZb1 11.00 12.86 11.00 11.00 12.86 138.1 2 TSASb1 11.88 11.88 11.88 11.88 12.00 511.2 1 TSBNb3 12.20 13.00 12.20 -1.70 11.03 18.00 6,666.9 2 TSBNb4 17.00 17.30 17.00 -0.50 9.02 17.50 2,432.3 4 TSBNb5 14.00 18.00 18.00 +3.00 10.00 20.00 135.9 9 TXBNb2 12.10 13.00 12.10 -2.40 11.00 14.50 139.3 2 TXBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 +1.40 7.57 14.50 166.4 2 US_JPM_e1 16.64 16.65 16.64 16.64 17.10 674.9 4 US_MER_e1 23.48 23.48 23.48 +1.07 8.00 23.48 16.4 1 VITAb4 19.00 19.00 19.00 0 12.00 29.00 120.4 1 VITAb5 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 10.99 29.00 89.4 2 ZERDb1 9.80 9.80 9.80 9.80 9.80 827.9 1 --------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- 105 647,503.0 505 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - August 2008. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2008-10-23]