ANALYSIS: KASE debt capital market rebounds in August

/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, September 24, 08/ - In August 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 309 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almay (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT19.7 bn. or USD164.3 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 20.6 % of the monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in July - 75.6 %) and 0.5 % of total monthly exchange turnover (1.8 %). In August KASE debt securities market returned to its positions. The mentioned fall was on escalation of crisis situation on international stock markets. New problems on funding market, connected with deterioration of situation with major mortgage companies and investment banks of USA, forced investors to withdraw its assets from these segments of the market. On this background securities` attractiveness of companies representatives of developing economies also fell, which showed the highest rate of vulnerability during the current world crisis. Due to mentioned facts, Kazakhstan market of corporate bonds continues to retain the low level of liquidity, notwithstanding that high-level inflation in Kazakhstan supports the growth of interest rates. In this case, investors choose between safety and yield, and for benefit of the first, prefer less risky instruments. The price background of corporate bonds market in August looked as follows: from 83 bonds denominations, included in deals on secondary market, debt instruments of 66 denominations were traded with discount, with premium - 16. KKGBb2 looked most re-purchased, weighted average price of which made 129.7 %, re-sold - ASFIb10 (69.1 %). Let us remind that in July deals were conducted with bonds of 102 denominations, and 85 instruments were traded with discount, with premium - 17. ASFIb15 looked most re-purchased, weighted average price of which made 129.0 %, re-sold - aASFIb11 (64.6 %). Weighted average net price of corporate bonds on the secondary market fell to 93.8 % compared to 94.5 % in July. For the month according to concluded deals bond's yield to maturity for buyer increased at 42 instruments (in July - at 55), decreased at 30 (34), yield of 1 instrument was nothing to compare with (1). Below are the tables, characterizing this segment of exchange market in August 2008. Tab. 1. Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in August of 2008 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ---------------------- Trend August To July To August Indicator 2008 2008 2007 ---------------------------------------------------- ----------- ------------ Trades volume, th., USD 164,288.9 -3.2,times +25.2,% Trades volume, m., KZT 19,715.2 -3.2,times +20.4,% including, on offerings, th. USD - Х Х including, on offerings, m. KZT - Х Х including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 20,364.0 -13.5,times +198.3,times including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 2,444.7 -0.01,times +193.1,times Number of deals 309 -31.6,% +2.0,times Day average number of deals 15 -28.3,% +2.0,times Day average volume of deals, th. USD 7,818.5 -3.1,times +25.1,% Day average volume of deals, m. KZT 938.2 -3.1,times +20.3,% Number of instruments, 83 -19.4,pp +59.6,% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.3 -0.3,pp -0.02,pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 8.0 +7.8,pp +8.0,pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 13.5 +6.4,pp +2.9,pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 15.3 +8.4,pp +11.6,pp Participation of non residents, % gross 16.8 -12.3,pp +10.6,pp Number of exchange's members, 41 +2.5,% +32.3,% who made deals Market concentration, %* 46.5 -18.8,pp -4.4,pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in deals) Tab. 2. Branch characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE* ------------------------------------------------------------------ Stake from total market volume (%) in: -------------------------------------- Branch August 2008 July 2008 August 2007 -------------------------- ------------ ---------- ------------ Finance 81.1 86.5 74.6 Main consumer sector 7.7 0.4 0.9 Industry 5.9 4.6 23.1 Primary sector 2.5 3.7 1.1 Energy 2.3 0.1 0.2 Utilities sector 0.3 3.8 0.01 Discretionary consumer sector 0.04 0.3 0.03 Public health Х 0.3 0.1 Information technologies Х 0.4 Х Telecommunication services Х Х 0.02 ------------------------------------------------------------------ *branch classification of turnover structure was made in compliance with list of classification headings of Global lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standart and Poor's Tab.3 Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in August 2008 --------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- Instruments ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 214 +8 214 +8 64 +1 B 32 +1 32 +1 31 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 246 +9 246 +9 95 +2 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- STF RFCA 60 +1 60 +1 24 0 A+B+STF RFCA 259 +11 306 +10 101 +2 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "STF RFCA" - the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Tab. 4. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in August 2008 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- --------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 31.07.08 12,189.24 10.01 278.16 168.35 14,374.1 1,727.5 01.08.08 12,189.75 10.01 277.99 168.60 34,805.5 4,182.6 04.08.08 12,191.28 10.01 277.51 167.77 19,091.2 2,293.6 05.08.08 12,215.66 10.02 277.54 167.79 2,038.4 244.8 06.08.08 12,219.76 10.74 277.13 167.50 7,631.9 916.1 07.08.08 12,217.20 10.73 275.72 166.46 2,242.7 269.3 08.08.08 12,219.64 10.74 275.43 166.18 4,944.4 593.6 11.08.08 12,215.54 10.74 275.05 165.78 8,065.7 969.0 12.08.08 12,214.01 10.74 274.52 165.38 2,476.1 297.6 13.08.08 12,220.15 10.71 273.20 164.49 4,575.8 549.3 14.08.08 12,215.03 10.73 273.98 165.01 5,765.9 692.8 15.08.08 12,215.03 10.77 272.80 164.18 266.5 32.0 18.08.08 12,216.05 10.69 274.48 165.18 1,856.4 223.0 19.08.08 12,217.54 10.79 272.69 163.89 788.1 94.7 20.08.08 12,222.66 10.91 270.85 162.58 10,834.9 1,300.2 21.08.08 12,224.71 10.92 270.84 162.66 15,488.5 1,858.0 22.08.08 12,235.50 10.86 272.52 163.68 2,555.0 306.0 25.08.08 12,237.33 10.66 272.11 163.44 16,400.2 1,965.1 26.08.08 12,346.94 10.67 271.50 162.80 4,175.5 500.4 27.08.08 12,349.56 10.68 268.70 160.77 3,720.0 445.6 28.08.08 12,356.90 10.77 267.69 160.02 11,648.7 1,393.8 29.08.08 12,369.19 10.93 265.89 158.60 4,817.3 575.9 -------- --------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +180.0 +0.9 -12.3 -9.7 % +1.5 +9.2 -4.4 -5.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Tab. 5. Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in August 2008 (purchase and sale without consideration of nego deals) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR: -------------------------------------------- For Code of At a last deal: last 365 days: Volume of bond --------------- -------------- deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield Trend, % min. max. th. USD Of deals --------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- aAESOb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 3,427.6 7 aASFIb18 7.95 7.95 7.95 0 7.95 7.95 16,517.0 1 aASFIb3 16.00 16.00 16.00 +2.00 14.00 16.00 41.3 1 aASFIb5 15.50 15.50 15.50 0 15.50 15.50 47.4 2 aBTTRb1 17.00 19.60 19.60 +1.60 9.08 20.00 105.5 5 aCBH_b1 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 19.6 1 AGKKb1 14.00 14.00 14.00 +2.00 8.10 16.00 12.7 1 aHSBKb10 8.20 12.00 12.00 8.20 12.00 76.7 5 aHSBKb11 9.50 11.51 11.51 9.50 11.51 29.0 2 ASAVb2 10.00 10.00 10.00 -5.00 9.00 16.00 18.6 1 ASBNb1 23.00 23.50 23.50 10.50 111.04 84.3 7 ASBNb10 9.75 9.75 9.75 0 9.75 13.20 6.8 2 ASBNb7 9.00 9.00 9.00 6.50 10.69 8.3 1 ASFIb10 14.00 14.00 14.00 9.12 14.00 12.4 1 ASFIb11 13.00 13.00 13.00 9.50 16.00 2,250.0 2 ASFIb13 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 14.22 39.6 2 ASFIb16 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.00 16.00 4,357.8 1 ASFIb3 16.00 16.00 16.00 +1.00 6.00 16.00 15.4 1 ASFIb4 17.00 17.00 17.00 9.48 17.00 7.1 1 ASFIb5 15.00 15.50 15.46 -0.04 12.00 15.50 1,783.7 5 ASFIb8 14.00 14.00 14.00 8.10 15.50 70.7 1 ATFBb3 12.00 12.00 12.00 +0.50 7.51 14.00 83.7 1 ATFBb4 12.00 12.00 12.00 -0.50 7.50 15.00 0.7 1 ATFBb5 11.00 12.00 12.00 -0.30 9.95 12.50 17.1 2 BIGRb1 9.34 11.73 11.58 9.34 13.50 1,154.2 4 BTAIb12 7.50 7.50 7.50 0 7.45 7.50 3,247.6 3 BTAIb3 14.50 14.50 14.50 10.10 14.50 16.8 1 BTAIb4 17.09 19.00 17.95 -0.05 8.90 106.15 4,923.5 15 BTAIb6 15.50 20.00 16.50 10.00 20.00 165.4 8 BTASb4 18.00 18.00 18.00 +0.78 10.50 47.47 74.5 2 BTASb7 7.60 7.60 7.60 0 6.73 14.00 5,057.7 5 BTASb9 9.00 11.00 9.00 -2.00 9.00 11.00 17,117.5 2 BTTRb1 15.00 19.00 17.00 +1.70 6.99 20.00 255.5 15 CACMb1 17.43 19.53 19.53 +2.08 9.80 19.80 786.9 8 CCBNb16 7.00 10.00 7.00 -4.80 7.00 12.00 13,108.0 3 CCBNb3 13.00 15.00 13.50 -7.43 8.58 20.93 711.6 4 CCBNb6 14.97 14.97 14.97 +0.27 7.50 16.00 26.8 1 CCBNb9 14.50 14.50 14.50 0 7.50 14.50 27.1 1 CSBNb6 12.25 15.44 14.25 -1.25 9.40 16.10 701.2 5 DTJLb1 20.00 32.68 32.68 +22.98 7.00 32.68 5,927.6 31 EUBNb4 10.00 13.20 12.30 +0.80 9.00 18.00 5,823.3 13 EXBNb2 13.60 13.60 13.60 +0.10 12.00 21.00 833.2 1 HSBKb10 8.20 12.01 12.00 8.20 12.03 66.8 6 HSBKb11 9.50 11.51 11.51 7.50 11.51 27.6 2 KASTb2 10.98 10.98 10.98 +0.18 9.99 12.00 4.2 1 KAZIb1 16.20 16.40 16.20 +1.90 11.00 16.40 1,235.4 3 KDTSb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 0 11.00 12.50 17.6 1 KIBNb3 14.10 14.10 14.10 12.00 14.10 3,669.4 1 KKAGb1 12.50 14.50 14.50 10.30 19.00 3,084.6 10 KKGBb2 -9.40 25.41 -9.40 -35.61 -9.40 29.54 593.4 3 KKGBb4 9.50 13.73 9.50 -3.00 9.00 13.73 224.6 2 KKGBb5 6.47 6.47 6.47 6.47 7.74 788.1 1 KSM2b1 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 83.9 1 KSMKb2 14.90 16.00 16.00 0 8.77 24.15 712.3 2 KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 0 8.66 8.70 166.5 1 KZIKb3 18.60 18.60 18.60 0 7.88 18.60 20.3 1 KZIKb4 18.60 18.60 18.60 9.50 101.09 36.4 1 KZIKb5 10.05 10.05 10.05 10.05 15.65 16.5 1 KZIKb6 16.50 18.20 18.20 11.00 18.20 1,918.2 3 KZIKb8 15.00 16.50 15.10 -0.70 7.00 16.50 17,027.2 6 KZNHb2 14.00 15.07 15.07 +0.07 11.50 16.00 422.9 4 MAG_b1 , , 12.28 12.00 31.99 389.4 5 MREKb2 17.00 17.00 17.00 +1.00 11.00 19.00 38.2 2 MREKb4 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 8.00 9.00 166.6 1 NFBNb1 13.19 13.80 13.60 +0.10 9.51 20.06 1,667.5 3 NRBNb4 12.50 12.50 12.50 -2.00 9.00 19.50 309.8 2 ORDKb1 12.00 14.80 14.00 +2.00 11.99 15.03 296.1 4 ORNKb1 18.00 27.00 25.80 -3.20 12.00 33.00 269.3 17 RESCb1 16.00 16.00 16.00 12.07 17.00 1,251.9 2 RGBRb4 6.31 15.50 6.31 -6.69 6.31 15.50 1,440.4 6 RGBRb6 9.00 13.78 9.01 +0.01 9.00 14.00 11,138.8 3 RMXRb1 22.00 22.00 22.00 14.00 22.00 41.8 1 TEBNb3 12.00 12.00 12.00 -2.00 9.00 14.02 10.1 2 TEBNb5 13.00 13.00 13.00 0 9.00 13.50 3,443.6 1 TSBNb3 13.90 13.90 13.90 -0.15 10.00 14.05 607.1 1 TSBNb4 17.00 17.50 17.50 +0.50 9.02 17.50 515.1 5 TSBNb5 14.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 20.00 280.3 4 TXBNb2 14.00 14.50 14.50 +1.50 10.00 14.50 295.8 3 TXBNb3 12.60 14.00 12.60 -0.40 7.00 14.50 1,135.8 5 US_MER_e1 21.98 22.59 22.41 +0.47 8.00 23.48 8,599.9 8 VITAb4 19.00 19.00 19.00 0 11.45 29.00 21.3 2 VITAb5 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 10.00 29.00 71.2 1 --------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- 82 151,097.3 304 ---------------------------------------- -------------- ------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - July 2008. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2008-09-24]