Kazakhstan to wait for economy growth by 5-7 % in 2009-2011

/REUTERS, Astana, September 11, 08/ - Kazakhstan government worked out three year budget for 2009-2011, estimating annual economy growth by 5-7 % and average annual inflation next year within 8.5-10.5 %, the Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning informed. "While working out the republican budget for 2009-2011, the major scenario of social and economic development was taken as the base, providing finishing of correction of global financial markets, aroused by mortgage crisis in USA, processes of secondary distribution of world capital and stability on world commodity markets" - explanatory memorandum of the government to the budget informs. The budget was made up in compliance with world oil prices in three-year period at $60 per barrel of Brent. The actual rate of GDP growth will make 5.0-7.0 % with KZT17.9 trl. in 2009, KZT20.8 trl. in 2010 and KZT24.1 trl. in 2011. "Consumer price index is forecast within 8.5-10.5 % in 2009 with further decreasing to 7.0-9.0 % in 2010 and 6.5-8.6 % in 2011, calculated KZT/USD rate will make in average KZT124 (in 2010-2011)". Besides, according to government's documents, inflation at the end of 2008 will make - 7.9-9.9 %; at the end of 2009 - 7.5-9.5 %; at the end of 2010 - 7.0-9.0 %; at the end of 2011 - 6.5-8.7 %. Forecast of budget's income in 2009 (without transfers) is determined in KZT2.199 trl., expenses - in KZT3.699 trl. Budget deficit for 2009 is planned in amount of KZT539.032 bn. (3.0 % of GDP), for 2010 - KZT625.485 bn., for 2011 - KZT482.615 bn. Budget deficit of the current year is planned in amount of 2.1 % of GDP. Next year the volume of direct taxes and other incomes from oil sector is planned in KZT1.449 trl. or it will decrease against estimation of the current year by KZT226.873 bn., is said in the memorandum. "The reasons of frictions are: changing of macroeconomic indicators,... at the expense of considerable decreasing of forecast world oil price from $105 to $60 per barrel, incomes increasing by KZT125.205 bn. will make at the expense of increasing of oil production from 67.3 m. tones to 79.2 m. tones, ...at the expense of changing in KZT/USD rate from 121.5 to 123.5 (in 2009)" - is said in the document. Besides, according to document, Kazakhstan plans to increase oil production in 2010 to 81.3 tones, in 2011 - to 81.6 tones. Earlier, the Ministry of Economy forecast oil production in 72 m. tones in 2009. According to Ministry of Economy, this year production will make 70 m. tones; earlier Ministry of Economy forecast production in 67.6 m. tones in 2008. In 2009 Kazakhstan plans introduction of new Tax Code, in which it will change royalty for minerals production. "In total, at the expense of changes in Tax Legislation, increasing of oil sector incomes will make KZT123.885 bn.". [2008-09-11]