ANALYSIS: Downward dynamic of USD/KZT rate remains acute

/IRBIS, Ruslan Dzubaylo, Vitaliy Tomskiy, September 3, 08/ - In August, USD/KZT rate continued confident downward dynamic. Decreasing for a month made 64 tiyn per dollar, since beginning of July - KZT1.11. Such trend looks unusual after 6 months of "slack". Below Information Agency of Financial Markets IRBIS (Almaty) publishes its opinion on the situation on Kazakhstan currency market. High energy resources` prices on world markets Surplus of Kazakhstan trade balance in initial 6 months of 2008 made $17.9 bn., having exceeded results of corresponding period of last year in 2.5 times. Black ink of payment balance's current account for this period made $6.7 bn. (in initial 6 months of 2007 - deficit $2.4 bn.). As we said before, such insignificant growth of trade balance was conditioned by oil and oil products export growth in monetary terms and also recession of join import. Owing to high prices on hydrocarbon on world markets (maximum is in July, when Brent crude oil price reached $147 per barrel) the current account of payment balance turned out to be positive. Currency proceeds of export companies created big volume of dollar liquidity on domestic market, what downgraded American currency. USD rate forecast IRBIS analysts forecast fluctuation in USD/KZT exchange rate within KZT119 - 120 per USD till the end of current year. We based on the data that conjuncture of primary markets in July had changed significantly (Brent oil price - $114 per barrel). Besides, we shouldn't forget that situation in banking sector is still difficult, borrowing of foreign debt financing is problematic, annual index of consumer prices is at 20 % level and GDP rate decreased to 5.1 %. [2008-09-03]