Tenge rate to fluctuate within 119.30-120/$ on inter-bank in September

/REUTERS, Tatyana Seroshtanova, Almaty, August 29, 08/ - On inter-bank currency market the rate of tenge made KZT119.30 - 120.50 per $1 in September, from traders` interview, who said that dynamic of change will depend on situation on international market and National bank's activity. "In September the corridor will be KZT119.30 - 120.30 per $1. By the end of the month we'll be closer to 120.30. We expect dollar to appreciate not only on our market but on international" Alliance Bank's representative considers. Weighted average rate of Kazakhstan tenge on the main session of Kazakhstan Stock Exchange grew to 119.54 from 119.65 a day before. Volume of trades increased to $277.025 m. from $171.300 m. on Thursday. By results of exchange trades as of July 31 the rate made KZT120.18 per $1. Market`s participants suppose that September situation on the market will not change significantly, but name different fluctuation ranges. "Dollar will likely to be traded within KZT119.00 - 120.00 per $1. I don't think that we will grow or fall much" the dealer of BTA Bank said. "In September things will be the same as a month before: KZT119.50 - 120.50 per $1. There are no any preconditions for it" - the dealer of RBS Kazakhstan said. According to dealers, the physiologically main level of KZT120 per $1 was overcome in August. The major operator of local market - National Bank, according to players, has changed its market's tactic and allowed tenge to appreciate. One of the reason of tactic's change is the inflation struggle, which made 20 % APR in annual expression in July 2008. However, according to National Bank's forecast for 2008, annual inflation shouldn't exceed 10 % APR, at that for seventh months it made 6.6 % compared to 5.5 % APR for January - July 2007. According to some traders, there was another reason for national currency to appreciate. "As far as we know, National Bank had sales and it had an interest in dollar to fall for purchasing big volume. Correspondently, it held the rate and sells many dollars, when others tried to overcome KZT120.30 per $1. The market tried to push up dollar, then majority turned around and started to play downward, then nonresidents appeared which started to exert pressure by big volumes and now National Bank purchases dollars" - the dealer of one of the bank said. However, according to some dealers, upward trend on tenge will be changed for downward during nearest time. "We expect situation to change as big volumes are taken by the major player on the market, after which there will be recoil to KZT120.20 - 120.30 per $1" - the dealer of one of Kazakhstan banks said. According to other dealers, international investors won't give interest to Kazakhstan currency market. "International investors are not very much interested in tenge market because of volatility absence and correspondently absence of opportunity to earn money" - the dealer of RBS Kazakhstan said. According to dealers, there are definite moods of players on the market. "In principle, the market is negative. Actually everybody used to the thing that there is a major player on the market, which dictate rules of the game. And everything will depend on the wish of major player" - the dealer of one of Kazakhstan banks said. "We consider that there will be no significant fluctuations in USD/KZT in nearest month. The current levels are 119.50 - 119.70. We think that during the month the rate may fluctuate within KZT119.50 - 120.50 per $1" - the dealer of Kazkommertsbank said. "In case events have happened that will lead to sharp fluctuation in exchange rate of world currencies, the rate of USD/KZT pair also can react. At the end of the month, dollar rate may fall under the pressure of export proceeds sale by the clients of commercial banks. However, we not forecast decreasing of rate lower than KZT119.00 per $1 in any case" - he added. [2008-08-29]