/IRBIS, Ruslan Dzubaylo, August 20, 08/ - In July 2008 Kazakhstan Stock
Exchange (KASE) registered 836 deals for the total of KZT20.7 bn. or
USD171.6 m. according to the current rate as on the date of conclusion of deals
in shares in all market sectors including deals concluded on the special trading
floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA). The indicated sum
totals to 24.4 % of monthly turnover of KASE corporate securities market (in June
- 55.1 %) and 0.6 % of the total exchange monthly turnover (1.9 %).
By results of July weighted average day prices of 26 % shares denominations
increased (in June - 20 %), 55 % denominations (61 %) - decreased, prices of
17 % of shares didn't changed (12 %), 2 % - had nothing to compare with (6 %)
on KASE. Maximum trend showed the following instruments: KZDK increased by
125.8 %, GB_ENRC fell by 26.5 %.
July on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange was characterized by price fall of almost all
"blue counters", extinguished by IRBIS. Decrease was seen in almost all major
sectors of Kazakhstan share market. KASE index fell 10.6 % in July.
Equity instruments of financial sector (39.5 % fall happened due to prices
decreasing of financial sector's shares) made major contribution to KASE index
falling. Flagships of domestic share market common shares of
Kazkommertsbank JSC (KKGB), BTA Bank JSC (BTAS) and Halyk Savings Bank
of Kazakhstan JSC (HSBK) decreased 8.25 %, 5.43 % and 12.05 %
correspondently.
Decreasing of share value of Kazakhstan financial sector was on closing
positions in securities of financial institutes all over the world by foreign
investors. Speculative investors, who cleaning their portfolios from securities of
bank organization in a rush, began massive sales of Kazakhstan bank securities
also, notwithstanding that July news had no relation to Kazakhstan and couldn't
influence domestic banks.
The thing is that at the beginning of the month there were speculations that major
USA mortgage agencies Freddie Mac и Fannie Mae were at the edge of
bankruptcy. Collapse of such backbone financial companies would mean collapse
of all USA financial system, from which the country wouldn't recover. However,
announcement of USA authorities that these organizations won't be bankrupts
and will receive government support stabilized the situation.
The second wave of decreasing began when European banks reported the
results of the fist half year. It was announced on regular major assets
writing-off, which upset shareholders, who expected the year beginning
writing-offs to be enough for longer period.
Metallurgic sector of KASE share index, which is solely represented by common
shares of KAZAKHMYS PLC (GB_KZMS), provided 27.6 % index falling:
GB_KZMS decreased by 18.78 % for a month. Another representative of the
sector, which is not in the index, is common shares of ENRC (GB_ENRC) falling
26.5 %.
Plans of Kazakhstan government to reinforce its strategic influence on this sphere
contributed to this company's share fall. Firstly it was known that KAZAKHMYS
PLC consolidated block stock in ENRC (at the current moment, the stake of
KAZAKHMYS PLC in ENRC capital made 25 %) and government will receive
15 % in ENRC.
Later, it was known that KAZAKHMYS PLC is negotiating with Russian
Metaloinvest of Alisher Usmanov. In case the last would make offer to
KAZAKHMYS PLC, government would have option right (according to
Kazakhstan Legislation). Thus, government, making one action, can receive
majority share in KAZAKHMYS PLC, which in its turn would have block stock in
ENRC.
Judging by all this, investors don't like the idea of increasing government
control in these companies and that's why they began massive sale of these shares
on London Stock Exchange.
Common shares of Exploration Production KazMunaiGaz JSC (RDGZ -13.41 %)
made their contribution. There is no wonder in this company's shares falling: oil
after rash and speculative growth on world energy resources markets began to
fall immensely.
In August Kazakhstan Stock market will continue following western markets of
equity instruments.
Below are the tables providing details on KASE share market in July 2008.
Tab. 1. Statistical characteristics of KASE share market in July 2008
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend to
------------------
June July
Indicator July 2008 2008 2007
-------------------------------------- --------- --------- --------
Trade volume, th. USD 171,572.8 -61.8,% -67.1,%
Trade volume, m. KZT 20,651.5 -61.9,% -67.5,%
including, on offerings, th. USD 1,661.4 +100.0,% Х
including, on offerings, m. KZT 199.7 +100.0,% Х
including on STF RFCA, th. USD 525.5 -99.6,% +61.5,%
including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 63.2 -99.6,% +71.2,%
Deals 836 -30.9,% -62.4,%
Instruments in deals 43 -12.2,% -15.7,%
Daily average of deals 38 -34.0,% -62.4,%
Daily average volume of deals, th. USD 7,980.3 -62.7,% -65.6,%
Daily average volume of deals, m. KZT 960.5 -62.8,% -66.0,%
Stake of nego deals (number), % 2.6 -0.8,pp +0.1,pp
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 7.4 +4.1,pp -3.6,pp
Pension assets, % gross 15.9 +12.63,pp +9.8,pp
Individuals, % gross 10.1 -8.9,pp -16.2,pp
Non-residents, % gross 24.8 -7.2,pp +13.9,pp
KASE members, concluded deals 45 -4.3,% -21.1,%
Market concentration, %* 59.1 +6.1,pp +0.6,pp
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*percent of total share turnover, which falls on most tradable securities (their
number makes 5 % of the total of stocks, involved in deals)
Tab. 2. Industrial characteristics of KASE share market*
------------------------------------------------------------------
Stake of total volume of market (%):
----------- ----------- ------------
July June May
Industry 2008 2008 2007
----------------------------- ----------- ----------- ------------
Finance 88.5 66.7 8.2
Telecommunications services 0.6 22.7 6.81
Power engineering 7.1 8.9 83.7
Discretional consumer sector 0.7 0.89 0.0
Raw material sector 0.4 0.5 0.3
0.1 0.2 0.8
Main consumer sector
Public services 2.5 0.1 0.08
Public health 0.01 X 0.001
Industry X X X
Information technologies X X X
------------------------------------------------------------------
*Industrial classification of turnover structure has been compiled in accordance
with lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standart and Poor's
Tab. 3. Changes in shares tradable on KASE in July 2008
(as at the end of the month, change in month)
-----------------------------------------------------
Shares: Instruments: Issuers:
Admission ------------ -------------- ------------
category number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------- ------ ------ -----
A 46 0 46 0 33 0
B 49 0 49 0 41 0
------------ ------ ----- ------- ------ ------ -----
A+B 95 0 95 0 72 0
------------ ------ ----- ------- ------ ------ -----
N 4 0 4 0 4 0
------------ ------ ----- ------- ------ ------ -----
A+B+N 99 0 99 0 76 0
------------ ------ ----- ------- ------ ------ -----
C (STF RFCA) 26 0 26 0 19 0
------------ ------ ----- ------- ------ ------ -----
A+B+C+N 103 0 125 0 79 0
-----------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A", "B" - categories of KASE official list;
"C" - categories of STF RFCA official list; "А+В" - KASE official list; "А+В+N" -
MTF KASE; "A+B+C+N" - total on KASE, including STF RFCA; due to STF RFCA
launching securities (shares) of one denomination the re could be two exchange
instruments, different in trading code, and trading and settlements terms.
Tab. 4. KASE index dynamics in various periods
at the moment of trade close as on July 31, 2008 (basis actual/365)
----------------------------------------
Trend:
------------
Period % % APR
--------------------------- ----- ------
For preceding 30 days -10.6 -125.3
Since the beginning of 2008 -11.4 -19.4
For last 365 days (year) -13.4 -13.4
In 2007 +12.2 +12.2
Form the beginning of 2007 -0.6 -0.4
----------------------------------------
Tab. 5. Main indicators of exchange purchase and sale share market
in July 2008
----------------------------------------------------------------
Market Volume of Volume of
capitalization, deals, deals, Number
Date m. USD KASE index th. USD m. KZT of deals
-------- --------------- ---------- --------- --------- --------
30.06.08 94,856.6 2,613.76 17,649.1 2,131.1 38
01.07.08 91,482.1 2,603.35 3,986.5 481.0 18
02.07.08 89,488.2 2,598.03 3,966.0 478.2 37
03.07.08 86,571.6 2,630.62 62,153.9 7,493.3 85
04.07.08 84,639.8 2,479.15 7,883.2 950.2 50
08.07.08 83,508.8 2,424.85 2,063.4 248.6 28
09.07.08 81,721.5 2,374.00 20,421.1 2,458.3 35
10.07.08 81,911.2 2,411.14 2,247.1 270.1 21
11.07.08 83,133.3 2,407.79 4,099.5 492.8 44
14.07.08 87,104.7 2,421.00 1,589.6 191.1 23
15.07.08 85,640.8 2,457.09 9,167.6 1,100.7 42
16.07.08 85,430.5 2,426.03 10,499.3 1,260.4 27
17.07.08 85,258.6 2,419.73 14,815.7 1,780.0 42
18.07.08 83,415.3 2,400.68 3,665.6 440.6 59
21.07.08 83,442.7 2,392.04 1,130.0 135.8 24
22.07.08 83,353.0 2,384.38 1,412.5 169.7 40
23.07.08 81,337.6 2,366.03 300.0 36.1 30
24.07.08 81,010.5 2,354.16 7,740.2 930.3 62
25.07.08 78,135.1 2,350.84 1,073.6 129.0 48
28.07.08 76,777.6 2,357.74 3,454.6 415.2 20
29.07.08 76,422.2 2,288.38 4,733.5 568.9 32
30.07.08 80,257.1 2,335.89 4,243.4 510.0 41
31.07.08 81,720.2 2,335.68 926.5 111.3 28
-------- --------------- ---------- --------- --------- --------
Trend -13,136.5 -278.1
% -13.8 -10.6
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tab. 6. Results of trades in shares on KASE in July 2008
(according to data on deals, concluded on the secondary market by open trade
method)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price, tenge per share:
----------------------------------------------------------
by last deal for last 365 days Volume Num-
Share ----------------- -------------------- of deals, ber of
symbol min. max. price trend,% min max th. USD deals
---------------- ------------------- ------ ---------- ------------------------
ASBNp1 10,500.00 12,200.00 12,000.00 10,000.00 19,000.00 294.1 11
ASFI 25,000.00 25,000.00 25,000.00 9,700.00 25,000.00 2,603.9 6
ASFIp 22,728.00 22,972.82 22,728.00 10,000.00 22,972.82 27,970.1 3
aTEBN 7,000.00 7,000.00 7,000.00 6,250.00 7,000.00 13.8 1
aZERD 3.51 3.51 3.51 3.51 3.96 482.6 1
AZNO 9,200.00 9,200.00 9,200.00 6,000.00 11,605.51 252.7 1
BTAS 60,800.00 83,200.00 61,000.00 -5.4 850.01 146,000.00 64,991.5 98
CCBN 1,300.00 1,500.00 1,450.00 -3.3 1,000.00 1,942.00 10,642.0 113
CHFM 950.00 950.00 950.00 900.00 1,218.00 13.6 1
CSBN 3,850.00 5,550.00 5,234.28 3,850.00 7,400.00 197.1 9
CSBNp 2,280.00 2,280.00 2,280.00 2,001.00 3,000.00 9.7 5
EXBN 1,950.00 1,950.00 1,950.00 0 1,950.00 3,050.00 12.2 1
GB_
ENRC 2,350.00 3,245.00 2,618.00 -26.3 2,300.00 3,750.00 479.7 38
GB_
KZMS 3,248.00 3,960.00 3,248.00 -18.8 2,640.00 4,600.00 220.7 20
HSBK 377.27 471.00 405.00 -12.1 340.00 650.00 5,271.8 90
HSBKp 224.00 224.00 224.00 -8.7 224.00 333.50 25.8 1
HSBKp1 293.00 296.00 293.00 275.00 353.00 81.0 4
KIBN 290.00 300.00 290.00 110.00 531.00 23.3 3
KKGB 780.00 911.00 856.00 -8.3 600.00 1,255.00 908.6 38
KKGBp 350.00 385.00 350.00 -6.7 255.00 440.00 280.1 11
KZDK 5,000.00 5,000.00 5,000.00 1,150.00 5,000.00 2.1 1
KZTC 13,200.00 13,200.00 13,200.00 13,200.00 29,000.00 0.5 1
KZTK 32,000.00 34,000.00 32,000.00 -13.2 31,000.00 49,000.00 620.2 21
KZTKp 14,700.00 16,000.00 15,050.00 -5.9 14,000.00 24,600.00 405.4 38
MMGZp 7,400.00 12,000.01 12,000.01 -25.0 7,400.00 20,000.00 41.8 4
MREK 2,500.00 2,970.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,970.00 965.6 19
NFBN 4,905.00 4,910.00 4,910.00 +9.1 1,321.00 6,957.90 368.2 2
NRBN 20,000.00 22,727.00 20,000.00 -4.8 17,500.00 33,000.00 69.3 4
ORDB 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 4,150.00 11.2 1
PDES 999.99 1,050.00 1,050.00 920.00 1,095.59 3,227.5 3
RAHT 2,900.00 3,000.00 3,000.00 +11.1 2,310.00 4,200.00 164.2 6
RDGZ 17,500.00 21,950.00 18,400.00 -13.4 15,001.00 24,595.00 11,473.6 175
ROSA 630.00 630.00 630.00 +7.7 580.00 634.80 2.1 1
TEBN 6,600.00 7,000.01 6,800.00 -2.9 4,450.46 9,000.00 15,530.4 32
TEBNp 2,550.00 2,804.00 2,550.00 -9.1 2,200.25 2,900.00 115.7 12
TSBN 1,770.00 1,925.00 1,770.00 1,680.01 4,500.00 64.8 6
TSBNp 1,030.00 1,110.00 1,030.00 1,030.00 2,415.00 47.2 2
UTMK 20,000.00 20,000.00 20,000.00 19,000.00 27,010.00 2.5 1
UTMKp 3,000.00 5,000.00 5,000.00 1,500.00 10,000.00 39.2 4
VSTN 322,000.00 350,000.0 350,000.01 +8.7 322,000.00 353,904.00 5,748.2 9
ZERD 3.51 3.51 3.51 3.50 4.39 759.3 2
ZNGRp 9,742.00 9,742.00 9,742.00 1,292.74 10,000.00 2,593.3 1
ASBNp1 10,500.00 12,200.00 12,000.00 10,000.00 19,000.00 294.1 11
ASFI 25,000.00 25,000.00 25,000.00 9,700.00 25,000.00 2,603.9 6
ASFIp 22,728.00 22,972.82 22,728.00 10,000.00 22,972.82 27,970.1 3
---------------- ------------------- ----- ----------- ------------------------
45 157,166.5 807
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The table provides data on the shares, in which the deals were concluded by
one of the open trade methods. Trends (change in %) are provided in relation to
the last deal of the preceding month (June 1 - 30, 2008). Trend is not computed,
if there were no deals in the preceding month.
Tab. 7. Top 10 most liquid chares of KASE in July 2008,
including STF RFCA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Liquidity indicator calculation base (Kl):
Rank Liquidity ------------------------------------------
--------- indicator volume number number
July June Share Kl of deals, number of KASE resultant
2008 2008 symbol m. KZT of deals members days
---- ---- ------- ---------- ----------- ---------- -------- ----------
1 2 RDGZ 2.59 1,381.6 175 48 20
2 3 BTAS 2.31 7,832.4 98 36 20
3 7 HSBK 1.78 633.7 90 37 18
4 4 CCBN 1.73 1,278.3 113 24 20
5 11 GB_ENRC 1.00 57.7 38 18 16
6 5 KKGB 0.899 109.5 38 18 12
7 13 TEBN 0.898 1,870.4 32 7 18
8 6 KZTKp 0.83 48.7 38 16 11
9 - MREK 0.70 315.7 26 11 12
10 1 KZTK 0.64 74.6 21 15 8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: For calculation of Kl only data on deals concluded in KASE secondary market
sector by one of the open trade methods are accounted. The methodology of
calculation of this indicator is available in the corresponding section of the
document, released at
http://www.kase.kz/mix/rsp.pdf in Russian and at
http://www.kase.kz/eng/mix/rsp.pdf in English.
Tab. 8. Top 10 most capitalized listing companies of KASE,
shares of which were listed on the official list of securities of the Exchange
(as on the moment of trades close on the indicated dates)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As on 31.07.08: As on 30.06.08: Trend:
Short or contraction -------------------- ---------------------- ---------------
name- of company capitali- company capitali- company capitali-
(all, save zation stake zation stake zation
KAZAKHMYS PLС-JSC) rank m. USD % rank m. USD % m. USD stake
------------------- ---- --------- ------ ---- --------- ------- --------- -----
ENRC PLС 1 27,963.7 34.22 1 37,859.3 39.77 -9,895.6 -5.55
KAZAKHMYS PLС 2 14,465.6 17.70 2 15,067.2 15.83 -601.6 +1.87
KazMunaiGas
Exploration 3 10,817.7 13.24 3 12,533.4 13.17 -1,715.7 +0.07
production JSC
Kazkommertsbank JSC 4 4,458.8 5.46 4 5,018.6 5.27 -559.8 +0.18
BTA Bank JSC 5 4,248.7 5.20 5 4,505.7 4.73 -257.0 +0.47
Halyk Savings Bank 6 3,554.6 4.35 6 4,136.6 4.35 -582.0 <0.01
of Kazakhstan JSC
Kazakhtelecom JSC 7 2,971.7 3.64 7 3,095.4 3.25 -123.7 +0.39
ATF Bank JSC 8 2,558.0 3.13 8 2,396.3 2.52 +161.8 +0.61
Bank CenterCredit
JSC 9 1,549.1 1.90 9 1,649.3 1.73 -100.2 +0.16
Alliance Bank JSC 10 1,523.6 1.86 10 1,511.4 1.59 +12.2 +0.28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes: The company stake, % - an indicator, received by cutting off market
capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market share
of official list of securities of KASE and expressed in percent. As on the market
close July 31, 2008 this indicator made USD81,720.2 m. 95 shares of 72 issuers
were listed on the official list of KASE. The full list of codes of issuers with
names of the companies is available at:
http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm
[2008-08-20]