/IRBIS, Vitaliy Tomskiy, August 7, 08/ - In July 2008 volume of foreign
currency transactions made on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE)
reached the equivalent of USD9,483.9 m. or KZT1,141,287.8 m., relative to
June of 2008, volume of deals increased by $1,129.3 m. (KZT132,733.9 m.)
or by 13.5 % in USD or 13.2 % in tenge. Relative to July 2007 trade volume
increased by 19.2 % in USD and 17.5% in tenge.
The stake of the sector in stock exchange's turnover decreased from 35.6 %
in June, 2008 to 32.8 % in July 2008.
The total of 12,679 deals (6,336) were made in July 2008 on KASE (here
and further comparable figures of previous month are given in parentheses),
including: in US dollars on TOD terms - 8,347 (6,101), on TOM terms -
1,552 (147), on SPOT terms - 2,749 (70); in Russian ruble - 27 (11), in
euros - 4 (7).
Of the whole the volume of concluded deals in July 2008 in total turnover of
exchange's currency market was 99.94 % to the stake of US dollar. In
previous month the stake was 99.95 %.
In July morning (main) session controlled 44.1 % (47.9 %) of exchange
turnover of currency market. To the stake of day session made 21.8 %
(26.9 %), evening session - 34.1 % (25.1 %).
In USD the volume of transactions on KASE in July 2008 reached $9,478.2
m. (KZT1,140,596.1 m.). To compare, in June 2008 this figure equaled to
$8,350.5 m. (KZT1,008,055.8 m.), in July 2007 - $7,954.0 m.
(KZT971,389.6 m.)
In July 2008 tenge strengthened to dollar 5.42 % APR. In the previous month
the corresponding index equaled to 1.83 % APR.
Weighted average rate of USD to tenge, calculated on deals of the main
session in July 2008 is KZT120.35 per unit, on all exchange's deals -
120.34. In June 2008 these indicators made KZT120.72 per dollar.
In euro the volume of transactions on KASE in July 2008 made EUR1.55 m.
on sum KZT293.5 m. (in June, 2008 - EUR1.81 m. on sum KZT338.4 m.).
Judging by changes of weighted average exchange rate (04.07.2008 =
190.10; 14.07.2008 = 191.50) in analyzing month appreciation of KZT/EUR
was 30.7 % APR.
In ruble the volume of transactions on KASE in July 2008 made RUB77,100
th. (KZT398.2 m.) (in June, 2008 - RUB31,200 th. on the sum KZT159.8
m.). Judging by changes of average weighted exchange rate (02.07.2008 =
5.1550; 31.07.2008 = 5.1477) in the analyzed month the speed of tenge
appreciation to ruble was estimated at 1.77 % APR.
According to forecast, in July exchange's turnover of foreign currency market
grew to maximum since year beginning. Growth of volumes and amounts of
concluded deals was observed on all trade sessions. Moreover - on evening
market, where trades with instruments of forward calculation (USD_SPOT и
USD_TOM) are held.
Such significant activation on internal currency market and mostly on US
dollar trades is explained by following factors:
- necessity in conversion of considerable currency proceeds of energy
resources` exporters in tenge. In July oil reached its highs for the whole
history of black gold trades (on NYMEX the price of barrel of crude oil
reached $150);
- increased demand on American currency on the side of separate
commercial banks with considerable servicing volume and foreign debt
maturity (in compliance with schedule of payments in July - August total
volume of maturity equals $1.4 bn). At that, more than $700 m. comes
to the stake of one of backbone banks;
- quarter and month tax payments, which traditionally effect market;
- activation of non-residents along with turbulence on equity securities
markets. This explains considerable growth of deals with foreign
currency on KASE evening session.
July was marked by significant growth of KZT/USD rate volatility, especially
in the first half of month. At that, downward trend prevailed. Rate decreasing
in the first two-month decades made 70 tiyn (see article "Appreciation of
tenge to US dollar in the first half of June was happened under the influence
of speculative moods and regulative influence", published by IAFM IRBIS on
July 22 at
http://beta.kase.kz/news/show/1052615).
By the end of month the rate became stable at KZT120.00 per $1, which
from the viewpoint of technical analysis looks as stronger support for USD.
It should be pointed out that participation of market's regulator in trades
during the analyzed period was noticeable. At that, damping influence of
regulating factor was along all way down. IRBIS analysts don't exclude that
National Bank activated mechanisms of currency market and with purpose to
decrease inflation (according to statistic, in July - the level of inflation
made 19.96% APR in annual expression).
At the same time, according to preliminary data, surplus of the current
account made $6.7 bn. in initial 6 months. Such positive macroeconomic
data support national currency and USD/KZT decreasing, observed in July,
was rather legal.
In the second half of 2008 situation will likely to change due to the start of
downward tendency on hydrocarbon markets (according to experts` forecast
oil will be $80-90 per barrel). In this case pressure on national currency will
considerably grow.
In August, according to IRBIS analysts, there will be no significant changes
in KZT/USD rate. Month price range is forming within 119.50 - 120.50.
[2008-08-07]