Analysts - Growth rates of GDP of Kazakhstan to slow down till the end of 2008

/REUTERS, Tatyana Seroshtanova, Olzhas Auezov, Almaty, August 6, 08/ - Growth rates of Kazakhstan economy, suffered form global liquidity crisis last year, are slowing down till the end of 2008, analysts consider. On Wednesday, Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning published on-line data on GDP growth, which rates have slowed to 5.1% from 10.2% in initial 6 months of last year. According to analysts, acceleration of GDP growth rates can happen until middle of 2009. "Economy recession is continuing and we think that in the third or forth quarter the growth will reach minimal value - 2.5%" - Vladimir Osakovskiy, analyst of Unicredit Aton said. According to statistics, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2008 made 6.0% compared to 100.6% in the first quarter of 2007. "We expect no excrescence and 5.0%, in our opinion, was the most optimistic forecast" - Denis Ryltsev, chief financial officer of Alfa-Bank said. Kazakhstan government as a whole by results of year 2008 is expecting the deceleration of economic growth to 5.3 - 5.5 % compared to 8.7% in year 2007 and considers that during nearest three years GDP growth rate will make not less than 6.0%. Ministry of Economy and Budget Planning considers that notwithstanding deceleration of separate indicators growth, financial system "showed stability and effective functioning". For the first time during last years, positive balance of current account - $6.7 bn. for initial 6 months of 2008 was formed due to energy resources prices growth. Growing world prices on hydrocarbons also contributed to trade balance increasing, which in January - June grew to $17.9 bn. from $7.0 bn. in initial 6 months of last year. Export growth for this period made 60.7%. However, growth rates of industrial production in initial 6 months were very low - 3.8% compared to growth by 6.8% for the same period of 2007, in particular metallurgy sphere. Constructive sector of the country suffered most badly form liquidity crisis; Kazakhstan authorities were given $4 bn. support last autumn. Notwithstanding the growth of construction in January - June by 10.7%, majority of objects were stopped. However, the volumes of crediting in Kazakhstan in January - May remained on last year level, in particular, decreasing of crediting volumes in national currency and subjects of small business is observed. "We haven't seen preconditions for growth renewal yet. They will likely to appear next year" - Osakovskiy sasid. According to IMF, Kazakhstan economy growth in 2008 won't exceed 5.0%. "Firstly the situation should become stable than there will be the growth. But by the terms, making will come to the middle of next year" - Ryltsev said. [2008-08-07]