Dollar in Kazakhstan to decrease to KZT119.80 in August

/REUTERS, Tatyana Seroshtanova, Almaty, August 1, 08/ - August not to bring significant changes on currency market of Kazakhstan, however, its participants don't exclude KZT/USD appreciation till 119.80. "In August we expect dollar to decrease to 119.80. We see presence of main operator on the market, who actively participates in dollars sale and aggressively reacts to upward playing attempts"- dealer of Alliance Bank said. "August will be very calm, quiet without sharp fluctuations" - he added. Weighted average rate of Kazakhstan tenge as of August 1by results of main trade session increased from 120.65 in July 1 to 120.17 per $1. "I think in August we will be in KZT119.80 - 120.05 per $1 range. The main reason can be exporters` earnings" - dealer of Halyk Bank said. According to dealers` forecast, the range fluctuation in August will be within KZT119.80 - 120.05 per $1 when in July KZT120.40 - 121.00 per $1 range was forecast. According to traders, in July low volatility was observed on the market; it has the tendency to retain in August. One of the reasons is seasonal factor. "There is no much movement on the market. At first, client's activity is falling because of leave season - summer. Secondly, central operator sets the tone - everything is in his hands" - dealer of BTA Bank said. According to some players, balanced demand and supply now is observed on the market. However, some participants point regulated market. "The market is regulated and there is no point in doing anything. And if the market would be free and there would be no Central Bank, I think movement will be interesting - we would see KZT118 and again return to KZT120 per $1" - dealer of one of Kazakhstan bank said. "Since year beginning we saw National Bank to prevent strong fluctuations on the market and even them, correspondently its main aim is not to shake "the boat" in the form of currency market and contest with inflation... All this will certainly exert pressure on the market" - dealer of Halyk Bank said. According to Statistic Agency, inflation in July 2008 made 20% in annual expression. In January - July 2008 inflation accelerated from 5.5% to 6.6% for the same period of last year. However, in July inflation decreased from 1.2% in June to 0.9%. "From fundamental viewpoint, tenge has to appreciate. All factors point at it, for example trade balance and others. I am waiting for dollar rate to be lower (than now) by the end of the year" - dealer of BTA Bank said. [2008-08-01]