EXPERT INTERVIEW: Bt results of 2008 inflation in Kazakhstan makes 10.0%

/IRBIS, Alima Kopbaeva, Dinara Mukasheva, July 24, 2008/ - August 5, 2008 enlarged government meeting with akims participation will be held; the separate theme will be the question of inflation level by results of first 7 months of current year. Earlier, National Bank of Kazakhstan republic forecast annual inflation within 7.9 - 9.9% in 2008, 7.5 - 9.5% in 2009, weighted average within 16 -18% and 8 - 10% correspondently. Majority of participants of expert interview of IAFM IRBIS consider that the level of inflation can't be restrained by the National Bank of Kazakhstan within the indicated range, their own forecast vary from 11% to 20% in annual expression. The main growth factor, according to experts, permanent demand growth on main commodity groups (oil and foodstuff) in world scale. Shakhnazar Tleuliev, financial analyst of Asia Broker Service JSC considers that growth of inflation in Kazakhstan in 2008 will be higher than refinancing rate by 10.5%. At that, Mr. Tleuliev thinks that the majority of growth will come to the second half of year. Forecast of Muhit Amirbekov, the Chairman of Board of Centras Securities JSC is higher - not less than 12-13%. Analyst of Citibank Kazakhstan JSC Danay Sarypbekov thinks that inflation in the current year will make more than 10%: "Administrative measures of restraining inflation won't limit inflation growth but only delay its effect in time duration. In 2009 we may expect inflation decreasing because consumer demand in country will reduce. Yuriy Khramtsov, economist of Visor Capital in its turn, is more precise and indicates the level in 11%. "We see no opportunities for National Bank to influence more on inflation restraining, when the government are expected to provide significant measures to restrain inflation in indicated range". At that, Mr. Khramtsov considers that the situation may become better as market's anxieties on activity recession in main world economies may lead to raw prices fall, what, in its turn, can lead to decreasing of inflation pressure. Shamil Dauranov, the head of Macroeconomic and Analysis of BTA Bank Department JSC admits that even with optimistic scenario (with monthly growth in 1.0 - 1.5%) accumulated level of inflation will make 12 - 13%. At the same time, Mr. Dauranov estimates influence of National Bank on easing of inflation pressure as minimal because inflation process bears global character. "It is natural that measures, depending on government and National Bank can ease this process and it is realizing. Temporary measure on grain and oil products abolishing, prices regulation by monopolists, restricting of foreign borrowings on the side of commercial banks, reserving of monetary base by National Bank and government (assets of National Fund) are known to everybody. However, the general process of world prices growth on basic types of commodities will be objectively and it will influence on inflation growth" - analyst of BTA Bank JSC considers. Mr. Dauranov`s own forecast is as follows: ------------------------------------ 2008 ------------------------- To December of For month reporting year --------- --------- -------------- July 0.9 6.7 August 0.6 7.3 September 0.8 8.2 October 1.3 9.6 November 1.5 11.2 December 1.2 12.6 ------------------------------------ The head of branch analytic department of Subsidiary organization of joint stock company BTA Bank BTA Securities JSC Nurlan Rahimbaev estimates annual inflation in 2008 on 19 -20% level, suggesting that the main growth drivers will be oil prices, which make major influence on prices of other commodity groups through transport component of commodity and products` prime cost. Reference Inflation level in Kazakhstan for year ------------------------------------------------------------------- 2007 2008 ---------------------- -------------------------------- For month Accumulated For month Accumulated --------- --------- ----------- -------- --------- ----------- July 0.9 5.6 January 1.1 1.1 August 0.7 6.4 February 0.8 1.9 September 2.2 8.7 March 0.6 2.5 October 4.4 13.5 April 0.9 3.4 November 2.7 16.6 May 1.0 4.5 December 1.9 18.8 June 1.2 5.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Prices changing on consumer goods and services for year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All goods and services Consumer goods Nonfoods Pay services ---- --------- ---------------------- -------------- -------- ------------ 2007 July +0.9 +0.8 +1.4 +0.6 August +0.7 +0.9 +0.6 +0.5 September +2.2 +3.5 +0.8 +1.5 October +4.4 +6.5 +1.5 +4.2 November +2.7 +3.9 +1.8 +1.8 December +1.9 +2.7 +1.2 +1.3 ---- --------- ---------------------- -------------- -------- ------------ 2008 January +1.1 +1.6 +0.8 +0.6 February +0.8 +1.2 +0.5 +0.7 March +0.6 +0.9 +0.3 +0.4 April +0.9 +1.0 +0.8 +0.7 May +1.0 +1.4 +0.6 +0.9 June +1.2 +1.8 +0.8 +0.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information is presented within the frames of weekly expert interview on acute questions of Kazakhstan and international stock market development, made by IAFM IRBIS. Analysts of Asia Broker Service JSC, Subsidiary organization of joint stock company BTA Bank BTA Securities JSC, BTA Bank JSC, Centras Securities JSC, Citibank Kazakhstan JSC, VISOR Capital JSC participated in interview. IAFM IRBIS expresses its gratitude for participation in this project. For detailed information please contact us Tel.: (727) 237 53 41 [2008-07-24]