ANALYSIS: In June 2008 market of corporate bonds on KASE continued growth

22.07.08 23:23
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, Ruslan Dzubaylo, July 22, 08/ - In June 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 423 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almay (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT44.3 bn. or USD367.0 m. at the current rate effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 44.9% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in May - 34.0%) and 1.6% of monthly exchange turnover (1.4%). In June corporate bonds market again showed growth (for two month in row). Due to instability on external stock markets (see details at ANALYSIS: In June 2008 KASE share market decreased on unfavorable events on world capital floors), investors showed interest to the instruments of less risk, than equity securities. In this relation, demand on instruments with fixed yield level is increasing. On the other hand, the certain influence on turnover increasing of bonds market on KASE played series of "internal deals", which made 46.9% from total volume. Improvement situation with short-term liquidity played significant role. Very low and stable TONIA index testify on it. Having "free money" investors preferred investments in instruments with fixed yield to investment in equity instruments (investments with high risk at the current moment). The same activity was observed on repo market and on primary government bonds market. The price background of corporate bonds market in June looked as follows: from 99 bonds denominations, included in deals on secondary market, with discount were traded debt instruments of 78 denominations, with premium - 21. KDTSb1 looked most re-purchased, weighted average price of which made 126.4%, re-sold - BTASb7 (61.6 %). Let us remind that in April deals are conducted with bonds of 84 denominations, with discount were traded 68 instruments, with premium - 17, at face value - 2. KDTSb1looked most re- purchased, weighted average price of which made 128.3%, re-sold - EXBNb1 (59.6 %). Weighted average net price of corporate bonds on the secondary market grew to 93.6% compared to 92.4% in May. For the month according to conclude deals bond's yield to maturity for buyer increased at 46 instruments (in May - at 44), decreased at 45 (32), yield of 3 instruments was nothing to compare with (5). Below are the tables, characterizing this segment of exchange market in June 2008. Tab. 1. Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in June of 2008 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ---------------------- Trend June To May To June Indicator 2008 2008 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- ----------- ----------- Trades volume, th., USD 366,976.7 +41.2,% -38.5,% Trades volume, m., KZT 44,289.9 +41.4,% -39.1,% including, on offerings, th. USD - Х Х including, on offerings, m. KZT - Х Х including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 1,150.7 0.007,times 0.003,times including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 139.0 0.007,times 0.003,times Number of deals 423 +45.9,% +84.7,% Day average number of deals 20 +40.4,% +84.7,% Day average voluem of deals, th. USD 17,475.1 +35.3,% -38.5,% Day average voluem of deals, m. KZT 2,109.0 +35.4,% -39.1,% Number of instruments, 99 +15.1,% +39.4,% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 0.9 +0.6,пп -0.4,пп Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.005 +0.01,пп -0.3,пп Participation of pension assets, % gross 14.3 +2.5,пп +10.9,пп Participation of physical entities, % gross 11.7 +5.2,пп +10.6,пп Participation of non residents, % gross 2.6 -14.7,пп -34.9,пп Number of exchange's members, 43 +16.2,% +30.3,% who made deals Market concentration, %* 65.2 -3.4,пп -17.4,пп -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * In May 2008 volume of trades on offering made $53.3 th. (KZT 6.4 m.), in June 2007 - $8.3 th. (KZT 1.0 m.) *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) Tab. 2. Branch characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE* ------------------------------------------------------------------ Stake from total market volume (%) in: ------------ ----------- ----------- Branch June 2008 May 2008 June 2007 -------------------------- ------------ ----------- ----------- Finance 86.1 25.5 96.1 Industry 6.7 67.8 0.1 Utilities sector 4.6 2.5 1.2 Information technologies 1.0 Х 0.36 Discretionary 0.6 Х Х consumer sector Main 0.4 3.5 1.6 consumer sector Energy 0.33 0.4 0.42 Primary sector 0.30 0.1 0.2 Public health 0.1 0.2 0.02 Telecommunication services Х Х 0.01 ------------------------------------------------------------------ *branch classification of turnover structure was made in compliance with list of classification headings of Global lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standart and Poor's Tab.3 Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in June 2008 --------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- Instruments ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 205 -1 205 -1 63 -1 B 30 0 30 0 29 -1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 235 -1 235 -1 92 -2 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 53 -8 53 -8 23 -2 A+B+C 241 -2 288 -9 97 -2 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Tab. 4. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in June 2008 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- 30.05.08 12,185.7 9.66 261.84 158.37 15,445.9 1,862.3 02.06.08 12,157.0 9.59 262.54 158.87 19,761.9 2,384.3 03.06.08 12,152.4 9.85 260.31 157.13 7,050.8 851.3 04.06.08 12,128.1 10.41 262.56 158.96 5,910.2 713.5 05.06.08 12,131.0 10.43 263.01 159.16 16,203.2 1,955.2 06.06.08 12,133.9 10.46 263.37 159.76 11,564.0 1,394.7 09.06.08 12,129.5 10.16 266.64 161.53 1,863.6 224.9 10.06.08 12,129.5 10.11 266.61 161.32 625.5 75.5 11.06.08 12,128.5 9.89 266.25 160.99 14,663.3 1,770.1 12.06.08 12,085.6 10.31 266.53 161.17 7,546.8 911.3 13.06.08 12,089.5 10.23 268.44 162.60 29,737.2 3,588.4 16.06.08 12,088.5 10.17 269.11 162.99 2,654.5 320.4 17.06.08 12,087.0 10.24 268.94 162.80 13,370.5 1,614.1 18.06.08 12,091.4 12.06 263.22 158.61 93,516.6 11,280.9 19.06.08 12,087.5 10.76 269.79 163.44 19,446.4 2,347.4 20.06.08 12,087.0 10.72 275.42 167.45 80,275.0 9,690.8 23.06.08 12,097.2 10.75 275.90 167.66 507.2 61.2 24.06.08 12,096.9 10.75 276.25 167.91 5,632.9 680.3 25.06.08 12,100.0 10.64 275.68 167.58 5,012.0 605.6 26.06.08 12,104.9 9.79 278.04 169.29 6,326.7 763.9 27.06.08 11,954.4 9.93 277.56 169.06 1,077.7 130.1 30.06.08 11,954.4 9.89 279.22 169.97 24,230.7 2,925.9 -------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Тренд -231.3 +0.2 +17.4 +11.6 % -1.9 +2.4 +6.6 +7.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Tab. 5. Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in June 2008 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for purchaser, % APR: --------------------------------------------- For At a last deal: last 365 days: Code of --------------- -------------- Volume of bond ----- -------- ------ ------ deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield Trend, % min. max. th. USD Of deals -------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- aASFIb11 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 16.5 1 ABDIb1 9.97 9.97 9.97 9.97 9.97 1,093.9 1 aBTTRb1 16.00 16.93 16.00 0 9.08 18.39 106.7 5 AGKKb1 11.10 15.00 15.00 +3.90 8.10 16.00 320.2 4 aKZIKb10 14.00 14.00 14.00 11.00 14.00 16.4 1 aKZIKb8 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 8.9 1 ALBNb2 12.20 12.20 12.20 0 12.00 12.20 124.3 1 aREALb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1,002.3 1 ASBNb1 24.30 26.30 26.00 -1.90 10.20 111.04 796.4 11 ASBNb10 11.00 13.20 13.00 9.75 13.20 14,947.9 7 ASBNb6 19.00 22.60 22.60 8.70 22.60 41.3 3 ASBNb7 7.00 7.00 7.00 6.50 11.00 18.2 2 ASELb1 13.00 14.00 13.98 13.00 14.00 421.2 4 ASFIb10 9.50 12.00 12.00 +2.50 9.12 14.00 140.8 9 ASFIb11 13.50 15.00 14.00 +4.50 9.50 16.00 5,351.2 6 ASFIb12 10.50 12.00 12.00 +2.30 8.43 13.00 88.5 6 ASFIb15 8.50 15.00 11.50 -0.50 8.50 15.00 22,767.3 21 ASFIb16 15.00 16.00 15.00 -1.00 14.00 16.00 3,806.1 4 ASFIb3 11.00 11.00 11.00 6.00 15.00 54.1 3 ASFIb4 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 9.48 16.00 197.0 4 ASFIb5 14.50 14.50 14.50 0 10.00 15.50 223.2 4 ASFIb6 15.00 15.00 15.00 10.00 15.50 2,026.0 3 ASFIb7 13.50 15.00 15.00 0 11.00 17.52 72.9 3 ASFIb8 13.00 13.00 13.00 8.10 15.50 30.7 2 ASFIb9 7.86 13.00 13.00 7.86 15.50 24,734.9 4 ATFBb3 11.00 14.00 12.30 +0.80 6.85 14.00 6,776.5 18 ATFBb4 14.23 14.50 14.50 0 7.00 15.00 611.8 3 ATFBb6 9.50 11.00 11.00 6.21 11.00 401.7 2 BIGRb1 10.92 13.50 10.92 -0.58 10.92 13.50 4,672.1 8 BTAIb12 7.45 7.45 7.45 -0.05 7.45 7.50 5,830.7 3 BTAIb4 15.50 17.50 17.50 +0.20 8.90 106.15 566.4 3 BTAIb5 16.00 16.00 16.00 9.24 101.34 108.3 1 BTASb2 14.50 14.50 14.50 10.10 17.50 13.5 1 BTASb3 13.50 13.50 13.50 10.00 47.77 132.9 1 BTASb4 16.50 17.00 17.00 0 10.50 47.47 582.0 6 BTASb7 7.60 14.00 8.60 +1.60 6.73 14.00 26,091.8 30 BTASb9 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 146,210.6 11 BTLZb1 9.70 13.20 13.20 -22.24 7.73 35.44 51.6 3 BTTRb1 16.00 19.65 16.00 -1.00 6.99 19.70 16,101.1 24 CCBNb14 17.00 18.00 17.00 -1.00 7.50 18.00 23.8 2 CCBNb2 13.00 13.80 13.80 10.00 106.23 441.8 4 CCBNb3 13.00 13.00 13.00 0 8.58 17.35 133.8 5 CCBNb6 16.00 16.00 16.00 7.50 16.00 374.3 1 CCBNb7 13.00 14.00 13.00 -3.00 7.50 16.30 53.5 4 CSBNb4 10.50 13.00 13.00 +2.50 9.80 13.00 230.5 7 CSBNb6 16.00 16.10 16.10 +4.35 9.11 16.10 4,637.3 2 DNTLb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 11.96 12.30 210.9 2 DTJLb1 8.50 11.50 8.50 0 7.00 12.00 1,732.9 3 EKTNb1 11.00 12.20 12.20 -1.91 11.00 14.11 1,752.2 6 EUBNb4 14.00 14.00 14.00 9.00 18.00 3,313.5 1 EXBNb1 8.63 14.00 8.63 -13.37 8.62 22.00 19,300.4 6 EXBNb2 13.50 13.50 13.50 -7.50 12.00 21.00 1,241.4 2 GLOTb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 7.00 15.00 3,494.2 2 HSBKb3 11.00 14.50 12.20 +1.20 8.80 93.00 3,609.2 5 HSBKb4 7.00 10.80 8.00 7.00 10.80 2,385.6 13 HSBKb8 10.00 10.00 10.00 +0.30 7.70 12.00 1,092.5 1 JGOKb2 10.00 10.00 10.00 6.81 12.20 496.6 1 KAFIb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 6.75 13.00 320.9 5 KARMb2 10.48 10.50 10.50 -0.80 7.50 12.00 29.7 2 KASSb1 9.50 11.00 11.00 9.50 11.00 669.2 3 KASTb2 11.00 11.09 11.09 +0.19 9.99 12.00 139.8 2 KATRb1 16.00 16.00 16.00 0 11.45 16.00 184.5 3 KAZIb2 13.95 13.95 13.95 -0.05 10.50 14.00 118.6 1 KDTSb1 11.00 12.50 11.00 0 9.50 12.50 172.4 3 KKAGb1 12.54 14.00 14.00 +1.46 10.30 19.00 300.5 4 KKAGb2 9.50 9.50 9.50 7.50 9.50 14.3 1 KKAGb3 14.12 14.12 14.12 0 10.00 21.30 153.1 2 KKGBb4 10.50 12.00 12.00 9.00 12.50 478.7 7 KSMKb1 9.00 16.00 9.00 9.00 16.00 4,709.4 6 KSMKb2 8.77 9.00 8.77 -1.28 8.77 24.15 2,051.5 3 KZASb2 8.66 8.70 8.66 8.66 8.70 133.8 3 KZIKb10 13.80 15.00 15.00 6.50 15.00 299.9 3 KZIKb2 18.15 18.15 18.15 8.60 18.15 40.2 1 KZIKb3 18.60 18.60 18.60 +1.00 7.88 18.60 17.6 1 KZIKb4 17.30 17.60 17.30 9.50 101.09 54.1 3 KZIKb5 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 11.40 15.65 23.0 1 KZIKb8 15.00 15.00 15.00 7.00 15.80 12.4 1 KZNHb2 15.00 15.00 15.00 11.50 16.00 156.5 2 MAG_b1 12.28 12.28 12.28 12.00 13.20 180.5 1 MREKb2 15.00 16.50 15.00 +1.00 11.00 16.50 648.6 8 MREKb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 9.00 9.00 137.7 2 NFBNb1 14.00 19.50 19.50 9.51 20.06 10,619.7 17 NRBNb4 14.50 16.00 14.50 +1.00 9.00 19.50 950.2 3 ORDBb2 13.03 13.03 13.03 11.80 13.56 248.3 1 ORDKb1 12.00 15.03 12.00 -3.00 11.99 15.03 326.8 6 ORNKb1 19.85 23.50 23.50 +2.13 10.00 29.00 1,096.1 5 RESCb1 14.31 14.31 14.31 14.31 16.00 538.7 1 RMXRb1 16.00 16.00 16.00 14.00 16.00 1,098.6 2 SATCb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 14.50 113.1 1 TEBNb16 12.00 12.00 12.00 +2.00 7.99 12.00 77.5 1 TEBNb2 12.90 13.00 12.90 -0.10 6.00 17.00 274.3 3 TEBNb5 13.00 13.00 13.00 9.00 13.50 136.3 2 TSASb1 11.92 11.92 11.92 -0.01 11.92 12.00 829.3 1 TSBNb4 17.00 17.00 17.00 0 8.50 17.00 497.0 2 TSBNb5 14.00 14.00 14.00 0 10.00 14.00 76.3 1 TSSMb1 11.00 18.00 18.00 +5.50 10.69 18.00 7,551.6 6 TXBNb2 12.70 12.70 12.70 +0.70 10.00 13.50 31.9 1 VITAb4 20.00 27.00 20.00 -1.00 11.45 29.00 168.1 4 VITAb5 21.89 22.60 21.89 -0.11 9.85 29.00 195.3 2 -------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- 99 366,958.0 419 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - May 2008. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2008-07-22]