ANALYSIS: As of July 1 2008 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS, along with its servicing totaled KZT1,398.5 bn. or $11,581.9 m.

/IRBIS, Raushan Tundybayeva, Ruslan Dzubaylo, July 10, 08/ - As of July 1, 2008, the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (the amount of coupon payments) made in current prices KZT1,398.5 bn., or the equivalent of $11,581.9 m. at the rate of KZT120.75 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists came to the conclusion after own databases analysis. During this analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated considering the consumer price index, which was fixed for the period from April to June 2008 inclusive, on MEUJKAM and MUIKAM - from July 2007 to June 2008 inclusive. From June 1-30, 2008, the total debt in tenge equivalent increased by KZT145.6 bn. (+11.6%), in the dollar equivalent (taking into account change in the National Bank exchange rate) by 1,190.0 m. (+11.5%). Similar indicators of debt change in May made up plus KZT16.8 bn. (+1.4%) or plus $123.7 m. (+1.2%). The following table contains more detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt ----------------------------- Change as of for the *Currency of June 30, 08 as of period ------------- ------------------ May 31, 08 ---------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 324.851 23.2 230.937 +93,914.3 +40.7 ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 1,073.664 76.8 1,022.015 +51,649.6 +5.1 incl. face KZT KZT 629.421 45.0 607.346 +22,075.0 +3.6 value incl. KZT KZT 444.243 31.8 414.669 +29,574.6 +7.1 servicing ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ---------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 1,398.515 100.0 1,252.951 +145,563.9 +11.6 incl. face 954.272 68.2 838.283 +115,989.3 +13.8 value incl. 444.243 31.8 414.669 +29,574.6 +7.1 servicing -------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of June 30, 2008 were valuated at the rate of KZT120.75 per dollar, as of May 31, 2008 - at KZT120.57. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics emerging, besides all other factors, from the rate difference. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt Change ---------------------------- as of for the *Currency of June 30, 08 as of period ------------- ----------------- May 31, 08 ------------------ Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,690.3 23.2 1,915.4 +774,902.9 +40.5 ------------- ----- ------- -------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- Ministry of Finance 8,891.6 76.8 8,476.5 +415,104.3 +4.9 incl. face KZT KZT 5,212.6 45.0 5,037.3 +175,307.0 +3.5 value incl. KZT KZT 3,679.0 31.8 3,439.2 +239,797.3 +7.0 servicing TOTAL 11,581.9 100.0 10,391.9 +1,190,007.2 +11.5 incl. face 7,902.9 68.2 6,952.7 +950,209.9 +13.7 value incl. 3,679.0 31.8 3,439.2 +239,797.3 +7.0 servicing --------------------------------------------------------------------------- * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in June 2008 by offering amount was KZT312,543.4 m. (in May - KZT259,011.4 m.). At that, the issuer paid off his notes on secondary market to the sum of KZT220,010.4 m. (KZT281,270.6 m.). Thus, in June the net-borrowing balance of the National Bank on GS market made up plus KZT92,533.0 m. The corresponding index in May made up minus KZT22,259.2 m. (the "minus" sign in the balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors, the "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In June, the Ministry of Finance borrowed due to MEKAM offering KZT34,341.7 m. (in May - KZT30,585.1 m.) and paid face values of bonds and coupon payments to the sum of KZT14,607.0 m. (in May - KZT23,127.2 m.). June net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of Finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT19,734.7 m. (in May - plus KZT7,457.9 m.). Total June net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers was estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT112,267.7 m. Similar indicator of May - minus KZT14,801.3 m. High prices on primary goods led export surplus and accounts of current operations in Kazakhstan to positive meaning. As a result of increased petrodollars flow-in, short term liquidity market in Kazakhstan turned out to be oversaturated by money, on which TONIA low index testify (Tenge OverNight Index Average). It allowed Central Bank highly increase its notes volume, which are in free circulation (with the aim to clear economy from surplus money, making additional inflation pressure). The fact that last month the Ministry of Finance increased net-borrowing on the market also played its part. IRBIS Agency draws attention of subscribers and the mass media that the data given below are not the official statistics and received as a result of the information analysis, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of the agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central Securities Depository JSC (Almaty). [2008-07-10]