/CORRECTED/ ANALYSIS: KASE share market more interesting for investments in May 2008

23.06.08 23:16
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, June 23, 08, mistake is corrected in Tab.7/ - In May 2008 Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) registered 1,366 deals for the total of KZT60.9 bn. or USD504.7 m. according to the current rate as on the date of conclusion of deals in shares in all market sectors including deals concluded on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA). The indicated sum totals to 66.0 % of monthly turnover of KASE corporate securities market (in April - 38.5 %) and 2.7 % of the total exchange monthly turnover (0.5 %). Trading activity increased in May, trading volume is the highest since the beginning of the year (Tab. 1.): this is a substantial breakthrough in comparison with the preceding month, considering the fact that the lowest of last 22 months monthly turnover was registered in April. Such volatility makes feel uneasy as the main accelerator of trades on the share market were deals in common shares of KazMunaiGas Exploration Production JSC (RDGZ), the trading volume of which made 83.5 % of the total sector turnover (Tab. 2.). Detailed examination of the deals with account of the investor base showed that 70.7 % deals in RDGZ were of "inner" nature, concluded with three counteragents. It is important to note that indicators of the other segments of the share market increased in May a little compared with April: KASE index (Tab. 4.and Tab. 5.) shows correlation of the domestic market with the general positive situation on world stock floors in May, at the background of gradual fall of anxiety regarding the recession in the USA. In this connection investors on world floors were good-minded not only to Kazakhstan raw material sector representatives (due to price rally on main goods groups), but also to companies of the banking sector. According to the results of May on the LSE GDR prices on common shares of Halyk Savings Bank JSC grew 11.5 % (-2.4 % in April), Alliance Bank JSC - 11.3 % (-11.8 %), KazMunaiGas JSC - 10.4 % (+17.9 % in April), KAZAKHMYS PLС - 6.8 % (- 0.9 % in April), Kazkommertsbank JSC - no changes (+1.5 %). According to the results of May on KASE weighted average day prices increased on 48 % of stocks, fell - 31 % stocks 19 % stocks have not changed, 2 % - no comparable data. Maximal trends were registered by: aASFI grew 180.1 %, AMGZp dropped 36.8 %. Below are the tables providing details on KASE share market in April 2008. Tab. 1. Statistical characteristics of KASE share market in May 2008 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Trend to ---------------------- April May Indicator May 2008 2008 2007 -------------------------------------- --------- ----------- ---------- Trade volume, th. USD 504,690.3 4.3 times +3.6 % Trade volume, m. KZT 60,862.5 4.3 times +4.0 % including, on offerings, th. USD - Х Х including, on offerings, m. KZT - Х Х including on STF RFCA, th. USD 8,632.1 168.4 times 40.0 times including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 1,041.8 169.0 times 40.0 times Deals 1,366 -9.3 % -33.7 % Instruments in deals 42 0 -20.8 % Daily average of deals 68 +4.8 % -2.7 % Daily average volume of deals, th. USD 25,234.5 4.7 times +8.8 % Daily average volume of deals, m. KZT 3,043.1 4.7 times +9.2 % Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.2 -2.2 % -2.1 % Stake of nego deals (volume), % 2.9 -3.9 % -19.7 % Pension assets, % gross 3.3 -6.9 % -4.7 % Individuals, % gross 46.8 +24.4 % +31.8 % Non-residents, % gross 21.7 -12.9 % +13.6 % KASE members, concluded deals 47 0 +14.6 % Market concentration, %* 90.1 +38.2 % +29.8 % ----------------------------------------------------------------------- *percent of total share turnover, which falls on most tradable securities (their number makes 5 % of the total of stocks, involved in deals) Tab. 2. Industrial characteristics of KASE share market* ----------------------------------------------------------------- Stake of total volume of market (%): ------------------------------------ May April May Industry 2008 2008 2007 ---------------------------- ----------- ------------ ----------- Power engineering 83.7 39.2 11.1 Finance 8.2 57.3 83.8 Telecommunications services 6.8 2.4 0.7 Main consumer sector 0.8 0.2 0.1 Raw material sector 0.3 0.8 0.2 Public services 0.1 0.1 1.9 Discretional consumer sector 0.03 0.05 2.2 Public health 0.001 0.0 0.005 Industry Х 0.0004 0.0001 Information technologies Х Х Х ----------------------------------------------------------------- *Industrial classification of turnover structure has been compiled in accordance with lndustry Classification Standard (GICS) Standart and Poor's Tab. 3. Changes in shares tradable on KASE in May 2008 (as at the end of the month, change in month) -------------------------------------------------- Shares: Instruments: Issuers: ----------- ------------ ------------ Admission numb- trend num- trend number trend category er ber ------------ ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- A 46 0 46 0 32 0 ------------ ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- B 47 0 47 0 41 0 ------------ ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- A+B 93 0 93 0 70 0 ------------ ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- N 4 -1 4 -1 4 -1 ------------ ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- A+B+N 97 -1 97 -1 74 -1 ------------ ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 26 +2 26 +2 19 +2 ------------ ----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ----- A+B+C+N 102 +1 123 +1 78 0 -------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of KASE official list; "C" - categories of STF RFCA official list; "А+В" - KASE official list; "А+В+N" - MTF KASE; "A+B+C+N" - total on KASE, including STF RFCA; due to STF RFCA launching securities (shares) of one denomination the re could be two exchange instruments, different in trading code, and trading and settlements terms. Tab. 4. KASE index dynamics in various periods at the moment of trade close as on May 30, 2008 (базис actual/365) --------------------------------------- Trend: ----------- Period % % APR --------------------------- ----- ----- For preceding 30 days +2.8 +33.7 Since the beginning of 2008 +0.7 +1.6 For last 365 days (year) +3.6 +3.6 In 2007 +12.2 +12.2 Form the beginning of 2007 +13.0 +9.2 --------------------------------------- Tab. 5. Main indicators of exchange purchase and sale share market in May 2008 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Market Volume of Volume of capitalization, deals, deals, Number Date m. USD KASE index th. USD m. KZT of deals -------- --------------- ---------- --------- --------- -------- 30.04.08 89 318.01 2 583.25 4 611.4 555.1 76 04.05.08 88 417.27 2 607.10 1 203.0 144.8 38 05.05.08 89 590.70 2 608.74 2 014.6 242.7 32 06.05.08 88 554.88 2 604.51 5 646.1 680.2 99 07.05.08 89 360.44 2 622.34 1 820.2 219.3 35 08.05.08 90 802.48 2 646.00 4 239.4 511.1 62 12.05.08 93 728.26 2 655.86 3 129.2 377.3 47 13.05.08 92 783.82 2 681.19 21 731.6 2 621.0 96 14.05.08 95 545.21 2 686.37 45 922.9 5 536.9 74 15.05.08 96 607.22 2 717.49 11 883.0 1 434.8 74 16.05.08 97 286.31 2 722.78 28 670.3 3 460.5 111 19.05.08 99 174.30 2 750.54 9 172.0 1 107.0 86 20.05.08 99 474.47 2 768.32 150 566.2 18 159.8 113 21.05.08 97 859.70 2 762.83 56 491.7 6 812.3 86 22.05.08 98 090.56 2 766.84 25 554.7 3 081.4 64 23.05.08 97 422.52 2 722.93 3 054.6 368.4 54 26.05.08 96 064.95 2 706.93 2 301.1 277.4 19 27.05.08 95 797.91 2 708.90 61 184.3 7 377.6 73 28.05.08 98 007.64 2 669.97 44 869.0 5 408.5 54 29.05.08 97 373.14 2 668.79 12 613.0 1 519.5 89 30.05.08 96 462.09 2 654.89 12 623.5 1 522.0 60 -------- --------------- ---------- --------- --------- -------- Trend 7 144.1 71.64 % +8.0 +2.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Tab. 6. Results of trades in shares on KASE in May 2008 (according to data on deals, concluded on the secondary market by open trade method) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per share: ----------------------------------------------------- by last deal for last 365 days ---------------- ------------------ Volume Share of deals, Number symbol min. max. price trend,% min max th. USD of deals ------- -------- -------- -------- ------- -------- --------- --------- -------- aASFI 22 728.0 22 728.0 22 728.0 8 100.0 22 728.0 28.3 1 aKZIK 10 050.0 10 050.0 10 050.0 10 050.0 10 060.0 114.9 4 AMGZp 30 000.0 49 000.0 30 000.0 29 978.2 75 000.0 161.1 2 ASBN 18 000.0 18 000.0 18 000.0 -7.7 14 000.0 67 970.0 10.6 1 ASBNp1 10 500.0 10 500.0 10 500.0 0 10 000.0 25 000.0 29.1 1 ASFI 18 000.0 22 729.0 22 729.0 0 9 700.0 22 729.0 1 415.7 9 ASFIp 20 000.0 20 000.0 20 000.0 +46.5 5 305.0 22 000.0 2 445.6 1 aTEBN 6 250.0 6 250.0 6 250.0 -8.8 6 250.0 7 705.0 8 285.0 5 aUTMK 25 000.0 27 000.0 25 000.0 20 105.0 27 000.0 204.0 7 BTAS 65 611.0 72 999.0 67 500.0 +1.9 850.0 157 275.0 11 551.0 109 CCBN 1 330.0 1 540.0 1 430.0 -4.7 1 000.0 2 050.0 3 375.6 70 CHFM 950.0 990.0 950.0 900.0 1 400.7 4.3 3 CHFMp 700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 908.5 1.3 1 CSBN 5 272.5 5 273.0 5 272.5 0 5 150.0 8 000.0 271.4 12 EXBN 2 400.0 2 400.0 2 400.0 -4.0 2 000.0 3 160.0 19.9 1 GB_ENRC 2 970.0 3 750.0 3 652.0 +17.1 2 600.0 3 750.0 376.4 33 GB_KZMS 3 800.0 4 600.0 3 800.0 0 2 640.0 4 600.0 670.2 35 HSBK 500.0 521.0 511.0 +2.0 402.0 720.0 985.7 48 HSBKp 285.0 285.0 285.0 0 285.0 333.5 187.4 1 HSBKp1 295.5 322.0 322.0 +0.3 290.0 353.0 349.1 22 KIBN 300.0 330.0 330.0 0 110.0 665.0 80.8 7 KKGB 950.0 1 000.0 970.0 +3.0 600.0 1 400.0 2 082.1 44 KKGBp 315.0 370.0 330.0 -10.8 255.0 499.0 253.6 12 KZIS 55 000.0 57 968.0 57 968.0 +1.7 55 000.0 68 000.0 4 330.3 4 KZTCp 1 820.0 1 820.0 1 820.0 0 1 820.0 8 750.0 3.4 1 KZTK 31 700.0 35 500.0 35 500.0 +11.6 31 500.0 50 499.0 26 567.0 104 KZTKp 15 000.0 19 900.0 17 000.0 +4.9 14 500.0 24 600.0 808.7 50 LNAT 8 500.0 8 700.0 8 500.0 1 649.4 9 999.0 56.5 2 MMGZp 12 000.0 15 000.0 14 200.0 +18.3 7 500.0 16 050.0 1 134.9 42 NFBN 4 900.0 4 920.0 4 900.0 0 3 000.0 6 957.9 856.2 6 ORDB 2 750.0 2 750.0 2 750.0 2 750.0 4 480.0 8.2 1 PDES 920.0 1 000.0 1 000.0 +8.7 920.0 1 095.6 415.2 2 RAHT 2 700.0 3 000.0 2 700.0 0 2 500.0 4 200.0 71.6 4 RDGZ 20 701.0 24 500.0 22 150.0 +9.1 13 000.0 24 595.0 414 301.5 661 RMXR 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.0 5.0 166.0 2 ROSA 585.0 585.0 585.0 0 580.0 722.8 3 144.8 1 TEBN 7 000.0 7 100.0 7 000.0 -1.3 4 450.5 9 000.0 4 516.4 15 TEBNp 2 700.0 2 700.0 2 700.0 +5.9 2 000.0 3 105.0 12.7 1 TSBN 1 770.0 1 925.0 1 770.0 -12.4 1 680.0 4 500.0 280.1 12 TSBNp 1 221.0 1 221.0 1 221.0 +10.0 1 070.0 2 415.0 29.0 1 UTMK 25 000.0 27 000.0 25 000.0 22 000.0 28 750.0 262.4 9 ZERD 3.5 3.9 3.9 0 3.5 4.5 0.2 2 ------- -------- -------- -------- ------- -------- --------- --------- -------- 42 489 8684 1 349 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: The table provides data on the shares, in which the deals were concluded by one of the open trade methods. Trends (change in %) are provided in relation to the last deal of the preceding month (April 1 - 30, 2008). Trend is not computed, if there were no deals in the preceding month. Tab. 7. Top 10 most liquid chares of KASE in May 2008, including STF RFCA --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Liquidity indicator calculation base (Kl): ------------------------------------------ Rank Liquidity -------------- indicator volume number number April Share of deals, number of KASE resultant May 2008 2008 symbol Kl m. KZT of deals members days -------- ----- ------- --------- ----------- ---------- -------- ---------- 1 1 RDGZ 3.00 49 961.1 661 65 20 2 2 BTAS 1.23 1 393.3 109 41 17 3 7 KZTK 1.07 3 203.2 104 33 15 4 4 CCBN 0.86 407.3 70 18 19 5 5 KKGB 0.85 250.9 44 25 16 6 3 HSBK 0.83 118.8 48 23 16 7 6 GB_ENRC 0.702 45.4 33 18 15 8 11 GB_KZMS 0.696 80.8 35 19 14 9 13 KZTKp 0.65 97.5 50 21 10 10 8 HSBKp1 0.50 42.1 22 3 17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: For calculation of Kl only data on deals concluded in KASE secondary market sector by one of the open trade methods are accounted. The methodology of calculation of this indicator is available in the corresponding section of the document, released at http://www.kase.kz/mix/rsp.pdf in Russian and at http://www.kase.kz/eng/mix/rsp.pdf in English. Tab. 8. Top 10 most capitalized listing companies of KASE, shares of which were listed on the official list of securities of the Exchange (as on the moment of trades close on the indicated dates) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As on 30.05.08: As on 30.04.08: Trend: Short or contraction name ----------------------- ---------------------- --------------- of company capitali- capitali- capitali- (all, save zation company zation company zation stake KAZAKHMYS PLС - JSC) rank m. USD stake,% rank m. USD stake,% m. USD pp ------------------------- ---- --------- -------- ---- --------- ------- --------- ----- ENRC PLС 1 39 005.3 40.44 1 33 359.8 37.35 +5 645.5 +3.09 KAZAKHMYS PLС 2 14 338.8 14.86 2 14 361.4 16.08 -22.7 -1.21 KazMunaiGas Exploration 3 13 087.7 13.57 3 11 861.6 13.28 +1 226.2 +0.29 production JSC Kazkommertsbank JSC 4 4 968.0 5.15 4 4 967.8 5.56 +0.2 -0.41 BTA Bank JSC 5 4 686.0 4.86 5 4 590.1 5.14 +95.9 -0.28 Halyk Savings Bank of 6 4 435.6 4.60 6 4 370.3 4.89 +65.3 -0.29 Kazakhstan JSC Kazakhtelecom JSC 7 3 227.3 3.35 7 2 939.7 3.29 +287.6 +0.05 ATF Bank JSC 8 2 215.7 2.30 8 2 219.2 2.48 -3.5 -0.19 Bank CenterCredit JSC 9 1 543.7 1.60 10 1 591.6 1.78 -47.9 -0.18 Alliance Bank JSC 10 1 473.6 1.53 9 1 597.3 1.79 -123.7 -0.26 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes: The company stake, % - an indicator, received by cutting off market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market share of official list of securities of KASE and expressed in percent. As on the market close May 30, 2008 this indicator made USD96,462.1 m. 93 shares of 70 issuers were listed on the official list of KASE. The full list of codes of issuers with names of the companies are available at: http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm [2008-06-23]