/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, May 29, 08/ - Unicorn IFC JSC (Almaty) provided
IRBIS agency with prognosis, dated April 30, 2008 of change of US dollar rate
growth to tenge, EURO to US dollar and LIBOR rates USD in medium term
prospect.
Prognosis of LIBOR rate USD
According to company's analysts, at the current moment the market estimates
decreasing of FRS rate by 0.25% to 2% (possibility - 80%). Economic growth
this year won't exceed 2%, what doesn't let to decrease discount rate lower
than 1.5%. At that, if accumulated liquidity, added in economic with the
purpose to support functioning of financial system, will shift in consumer
economic sector, there will be rise of price. As result, FRS will have to
stop rate reducing from 2%.
Our forecast of LIBOR rate is based on suggestion that dynamic of FRS rate will
be within the limits indicated above. In addition, we expect increasing of rate to
2.25% this autumn, if inflation expectations will be realized' - is said in the
announcement.
Prognosis of USD/KZT rate
Unicorn IFC JSC examines two sources (factors) of influence on USD/KZT rate:
- influence of external dynamic of US dollar rate to world currencies.
However, considering the total dynamic of US dollar reduction of price,
influence of this factor on tenge devaluation is excluded;
- runoff of tenge capital from economic. At that, considerable tenge trade
on the market finished by its sharp cheeping - in this case there is a
small possibility of considerable interventions from the direction of
National Bank.
In the whole, company's analysts expect that summer period will be rather calm;
at fist, because of low volatility on the world markets at indicated time. The
major risk of tenge devaluation is forecast during autumn-winter period, when
trade activity will raise and risk of dollar devaluation will become more
serious.
Prognosis of EUR/USD rate
According to specialists of Unicorn IFC JSC statistic data on GDP growth in
USA and decision of FRS USA on changing of discount rate of federal funds are
the main determinant, which will influence EUR rate. The first one made more
influence on EUR/USD dynamic.
Analysts don't expect significant positive change as a result of FRS rate
decreasing. Further decreasing of FRS rate (lower than 2%) will contribute to
accumulation of inflation expectations in economic, what won't lead to positive
perception by the market. At that, any value lower than 0.5% GDP will
contribute to recession expectations of investors and make devaluation pressure
on USA/EUR.
Unicorn IFC JSC - is managing company, providing the services of trusting
management on international stock markets, markets of Kazakhstan and
Russia and providing specialized strategies for solving of individual
investment tasks of client. In Kazakhstan was registered the opened shares
investment fund Unicorn-shares of Kazakhstan.
Unicorn IFC currently is the member of Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) of
"К", "Р" and "Н" categories.
Forecast of specialists of Unicorn IFC JSC is available on the web site of KASE
at :
- LIBOR rate USD at
http://www.kase.kz/files/mix/unic_libor_300408.pdf
- USD/KZT rate at
http://www.kase.kz/files/mix/unic_usd_300408.pdf
- EUR/USD rate at
http://www.kase.kz/files/mix/unic_eur_300408.pdf
[2008-05-29]