/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, May 15, 08/ - In April 2008 1,506 deals were
registered with shares in all sectors, including deals, made on the special
trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on
Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT14.2 bn. or $118.2 m.
at the current exchange rate on dates, on which deals were made.
The specified amount makes 38.5% of the month turnover of the market of
corporate securities on KASE (in March - 73.8%) and 0.5% of the entire
month exchange turnover (1.5%).
Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in April of year 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Month:
---------------------- Trend
April, March, April 2007
Indicator 2008 2008
---------------------------------------- --------- ------------ ----------
Trades volume, th. USD 118,171.4 -55.9,% -66.1,%
Trades volume, m KZT 14,239.9 -52.2,% -66.4,%
Including on offerings, th. USD - Х Х
including on offerings, m. KZT - Х Х
including on STF RFCA, th. USD 51.3 0.0003,times 2.2,times
including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 6.2 0.0003,times 2.1,times
Number of deals 1,506 +21.3,% +2.0%
Number of instruments, involved in deals 42 +16.7,% -12.5%
Average day number of deals 68 +4.8,% -2.7%
Average day volume of deals, th. USD 5,371.4 -61.9,% -67.6,%
Stake of nego deals (number), % 647.3 -61.9,% -68.0,%
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 3.5 +0.4,pp +0.4,pp
Part of pension assets, % on gross 6.9 +0.9,pp -2.5,pp
Part of physical entities, % on gross 10.2 +0.7,pp +2.7,pp
Part of nonresidents, % on gross 22.4 +5.6,pp -16.3,pp
Number of exchange's members, 32.1 +7.3,pp +24.7,pp
who made deals
Market concentration, %* 47 0 +14.6,%
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*it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is
numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total
number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE)
In April Kazakhstan share market froze in stagnation - turnover market
during analyzing period showed the least result, fixes during last 22 months.
Though in March the main stake (61.7%) of turnover came to trades on STF
RFCA (special trades on selling 570,848 of common shares KZ1C34560017
of Khabar agency JSC and offering of 250,000 common shares
KZ1C45320013 of Kazakhstan Mortgage Company JSC), however the stake
of deals on the secondary market and on the main floor in April is less than
corresponding index of March.
The fall of domestic market of shares bears individual character, as in April
the world exchange floors showed optimistic growth on the background
favorable information that decline of USA economic reached the lest
position. In particular, developed markets grew in April by 5.15% after
decline by 8.95% in March and developing markets showed the growth by
7.49 % after decreasing by 5.11% in March (according to Standard &
Poor`s).
The key moment in declining of analyzing segment of KASE market was the
high level of worry about further deepening of problems of bank sector of
Kazakhstan, which is forward movement of local market of shares. Investors,
keenly reacting on minor events, connecting with emerging markets showed
recession of activity on claims of international rating agencies that liquidity
risks and assets quality of Kazakhstan banks are not exhausted yet.
According to Standard & Poor`s analysts, the question about assets quality
are not decided and will be only acute, at that, turbulence restraining on
world markets makes additional pressure on Kazakhstan bank sector. The
same points of view has Fitch Ratings, considering that assets quality of
Kazakhstan bank system worsened much, compare to the end of 3-d
quarter, 2007, though depreciation of credits in bank sector, in the whole,
hasn't reached peak points.
In this situation, investors took the waiting position and sharply decreased
trade activity practically on all share securities, traded on KASE in April (it is
demonstrate decreasing of index of market concentration). As it was said
before, the shares of bank sector were purchased limply, the only exception
was common shares of ATF Bank JSC, the volume of deals on which
exceeded in 43.2 times the results of March (detailed information see
ANALYSIS: Liquidity rating of KASE listing shares on secondary market in
April and first 4 months of 2008). On LSE the prices of GDR on common
shares of Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC decreased by 2.4% (-
9.6% in March). Alliance Bank JSC - by 11.8% (-18.5%), Kazkommertsbank
JSC increased by 1.5% (-8.4%).
Prices of GDR on common shares of other Kazakhstan companies were
holding the custom line: Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC grew by
17.9% (+3.9% in March), permanent increasing prices on oil contributed to it.
Share securities of KAZAKHMYS PLС in London, by the results of April,
decreased by 0.9% (+3.3% - in March). The indicated was connected with
uncertainty about merging of this company with Eurasian Natural Resources
Corporation Plc (ENRC) - the committee on merger set deadline - May 16
when ENRC should announce whether it will or won't make proposal to
KAZAKHMYS PLС. Besides, quotations of KAZAKHMYS PLС began to fall
after announcement of vice minister of finance of Kazakhstan republic Daulet
Ergozhin that the government till the end of April will determine the amount
of export tax, which plans to introduce relative to production of mining
complex.
By the results of April the weighted average day prices on KASE increased
of 38% shares denominations, decreased - 60% denominations, there was
nothing to compare with the prices of 2% of shares. The maximum trends by
the results of month showed the following shares: ROSA increased by
46.3%, AZNO declined by 44.6%.
Next month, new fall of share market turnover is possible, due to the fact that
April 29 Standard & Poor's reviewed the forecast on sovereign credit rating
of Kazakhstan republic from "stable" to "negative", because of the fact that
"worsening of assets quality of Kazakhstan bank system in accordance with
difficulties of financing borrowing will lead to weakening of tax and budget
and foreign trade balance indexes and negatively influence financial flexibility
and perspective of economic growth¬. And though the same day the agency
admitted credit ratings of contractor, appropriated by 12 Kazakhstan banks,
decreasing of forecast on country ratings is a serious reason for further
decreasing of investment attractiveness of domestic market of shares.
Below are given the tables, characterizing the shares market of KASE in the
analyzed month more fully.
Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE,
in April 2008 (end of month, change over the month)
---------------------------------------------------
Shares: Issuers:
Category of ------------ Instruments ------------
admission number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A 46 +1 46 +1 32 +1
B 47 +1 47 +1 41 +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B 93 +2 93 0 70 +2
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N 5 -1 5 -1 5 -1
A+B+N 98 +1 98 +1 75 +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
C (STF RFCA) 24 0 24 0 17 0
A+B+C+N 98 +1 122 +1 78 +1
---------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE;
"C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the
regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE;
"А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE,
including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a
security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with,
which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance
and of payment completion.
Changes of KASE index for different periods
at the moment of trades' closing on April 30, 2008 (basis actual/365)
--------------------------------------------
Change:
-----------
Period % % APR
-------------------------------- ----- -----
For previous 30 days +0.6 +7.7
Since the beginning of year 2008 -2.0 -6.1
For last 365 days (year) +1.1 +1.1
For year 2007 +12.2 +12.2
Since the beginning of year 2007 +9.9 +7.5
--------------------------------------------
Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in April of
year 2008
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of
pitalization, deals, deals, deals
Data m. USD KASE Index th. USD m. KZT
---------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
Mar 31, 08 55,189.5 2,567.10 29,306.4 3,537.0 59
Apr 1, 08 54,550.5 2,597.46 1,390.0 167.6 30
Apr 2, 08 55,121.7 2,615.45 799.2 96.4 43
Apr 3, 08 54,912.4 2,594.24 1,112.4 134.0 25
Apr 4, 08 54,618.0 2,571.74 3,886.0 468.7 39
Apr 7, 08 82,542.9 2,585.95 5,245.7 632.4 55
Apr 8, 08 83,936.8 2,611.39 5,574.9 672.0 64
Apr 9, 08 86,076.1 2,610.74 4,399.4 530.4 90
Apr 10, 08 86,895.6 2,613.55 8,305.6 1,001.1 87
Apr 11, 08 87,956.9 2,654.29 13,657.6 1,646.0 134
Apr 14, 08 87,425.5 2,636.87 643.0 77.4 30
Apr 15, 08 89,472.8 2,624.31 3,600.8 433.3 93
Apr 16, 08 90,992.4 2,604.82 1,573.7 189.3 59
Apr 17, 08 93,064.0 2,607.85 4,787.9 576.7 63
Apr 18, 08 91,746.3 2,644.26 18,900.8 2,278.9 125
Apr 21, 08 89,248.2 2,633.37 9,188.5 1,107.6 48
Apr 22, 08 90,181.7 2,638.92 7,505.8 904.1 92
Apr 23, 08 90,094.9 2,654.40 4,684.5 563.8 73
Apr 24, 08 92,592.2 2,638.40 8,219.5 990.0 94
Apr 25, 08 90,653.8 2,619.66 5,244.9 632.0 80
Apr 28, 08 90,186.5 2,618.73 3,990.6 480.9 62
Apr 29, 08 89,843.3 2,588.51 849.2 102.2 44
Apr 30, 08 89,318.0 2,583.25 4,611.4 555.1 76
---------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
Trend 34,128.5 16.15
% +61.8 +0.6
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Results of trades in shares
on KASE in April 2008 in purchase and sales sector (including nego
deals)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price, tenge per share:
--------------------------------------------------------
on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num-
--------------- --------- ---------- of deals, ber
Shares trend th. de-
code min. max. price % min. max. USD als
------- --------- --------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- -----
ASBN 19,500.00 21,700.00 19,500.00 -15.2 14,000.00 67,970.00 134.2 9
ASBNp1 10,500.00 11,000.00 10,500.00 -8.7 10,500.00 25,000.00 44.3 3
ASFI 22,728.00 22,728.00 22,728.00 0 9,315.00 22,728.01 123.3 8
ASFIp 11,000.00 13,650.00 13,650.00 +36.5 5,305.00 14,500.00 87.9 4
aTEBN 6,850.00 6,850.00 6,850.00 6,850.00 7,705.00 51.3 2
ATFB 8,500.00 10,180.94 9,300.00 +7.0 8,100.00 14,000.00 2,407.3 37
ATFBp 5,181.82 5,700.00 5,181.82 3,001.00 6,500.00 244.0 5
ATFBp8 5,675.11 5,801.00 5,700.00 2,850.50 8,999.00 3,809.4 16
AZNO 6,000.00 6,000.00 6,000.00 6,000.00 11,605.51 160.9 1
BTAS 64,001.00 72,900.00 66,250.00 -8.6 850.01 157,275.00 16,516.4 161
CCBN 1,450.00 1,800.00 1,500.00 -0.7 1,000.00 2,050.00 9,170.5 133
CSBN 5,272.50 5,790.00 5,272.50 -5.0 5,150.00 8,000.00 452.7 19
CSBNp 2,280.00 2,280.00 2,280.00 1,777.85 3,505.00 56.7 3
DNBN 3,600.00 3,900.00 3,900.00 +8.3 2,000.00 6,727.50 176.3 3
EXBN 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 3,450.00 58.1 2
GB_ENRC 2,600.00 3,465.00 3,118.50 2,600.00 3,465.00 448.4 59
GB_KZMS 3,602.00 4,100.00 3,800.01 +0.8 2,640.00 4,105.00 513.1 26
HSBK 500.00 518.00 501.00 +1.0 402.00 740.00 14,622.9 88
HSBKp 285.00 285.00 285.00 0 285.00 333.50 26.9 1
HSBKp1 320.98 322.00 321.00 0 290.00 353.00 785.3 26
KIBN 330.00 363.00 330.00 -4.8 110.00 1,150.00 48.7 7
KKGB 920.00 1,000.00 942.00 +0.7 600.00 1,400.00 3,106.1 61
KKGBp 370.00 428.95 370.00 -5.1 255.00 499.00 928.5 23
KZIS 57,000.00 57,500.00 57,000.00 57,000.00 73,600.00 4,798.4 2
KZTC 14,000.00 21,700.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 48,000.00 176.5 8
KZTCp 1,820.00 1,850.00 1,820.00 -9.0 1,044.00 8,750.00 30.6 2
KZTK 31,500.00 32,700.00 31,800.01 +0.9 31,500.00 50,500.00 2,307.8 34
KZTKp 16,200.00 17,500.00 16,200.00 -8.5 14,500.00 25,000.00 283.6 15
MMGZp 9,500.00 13,450.00 12,000.00 -11.1 7,500.00 16,050.00 306.0 19
NFBN 4,900.00 4,900.05 4,900.00 -0.4 2,530.00 6,957.90 112.8 5
NRBN 20,000.00 20,010.00 20,000.00 -0.2 17,500.00 52,300.00 12.9 2
ORNK 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 9.20 0.5 1
PDES 920.00 920.00 920.00 920.00 1,095.59 69.5 3
RAHT 2,700.00 2,700.00 2,700.00 1,000.00 4,200.00 0.1 1
RDGZ 17,400.02 21,570.00 20,301.00 +12.2 13,000.00 24,595.00 44,503.0 617
ROSA 585.00 585.00 585.00 580.00 722.77 11.2 1
TEBN 6,000.00 7,095.00 7,095.00 +1.4 4,450.46 9,000.00 2,658.8 22
TEBNp 2,550.00 2,690.00 2,550.00 -5.6 1,733.75 3,200.00 77.5 8
TSBN 2,000.00 2,100.00 2,020.00 -3.8 1,680.01 4,500.00 661.1 13
TSBNp 1,110.00 1,110.00 1,110.00 1,070.00 2,415.00 6.4 2
ZERD 3.85 3.85 3.85 +9.7 3.50 4.50 58.2 2
------- --------- --------- --------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- -----
41 110,048.1 1,454
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were
made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last
deal of the previous month (March 1-31, 2008). If there were no deals last month,
trend is not calculated.
Top-10
of the most liquid listing shares of KASE in April 2008, including STF RFCA
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Base of liquidity
indicator calculation (Kl):
---------------------------------
Position Share Liqui Volume number Number Number Position
in April symbol. dity of deals of deals of KASE of in
2008. indica KZT, mem bers result October,
tor(Kl) mln days 2007
-------- ------- ------- -------- -------- -------- ------ --------
1 1 RDGZ 2.98 5,361.3 617 69 21
2 2 BTAS 1.53 1,990.2 161 45 19
3 6 HSBK 1.211 1,762.8 88 31 20
4 3 CCBN 1.210 1,104.9 133 27 22
5 4 KKGB 0.78 374.3 61 21 15
6 - GB_ENRC 0.75 54.0 59 20 16
7 8 KZTK 0.70 278.3 34 22 13
8 9 HSBKp1 0.65 94.7 26 7 22
9 7 KKGBp 0.52 111.8 23 15 11
10 20 ATFB 0.51 290.2 37 12 11
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes to the table: for calculation of Kl are used only data on deals, which were
made in the sector of KASE's secondary market by one of methods of open trades.
Description of methods of calculation of the given indicator is available in
corresponding chapter of the document, published at
http://www.kase.kz/mix/rsp.pdf
in Russian language and at
http://www.kase.kz/eng/mix/rsp.pdf in English
language.
10-top most capitalized companies of KASE
whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange
(to the moment of trades closing by specified dates)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of April 30, 08: as of March 31, 08: Change:
------------------- ------------------- ---------------
po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi-
Companys` shot name si- taliza- of the si- taliza- of the taliza- stake,
on KASE (all, except ti- tion, compa- ti- tion, compa- tion, %
KAZAKHMYS PLС - JSC) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points
-------------------- --- -------- ------ --- -------- ------ -------- ------
ENRC PLС 1 33,359.8 37.35 - - - - -
KAZAKHMYS PLС 2 14,361.4 16.08 1 14,211.4 25.75 +150.0 -9.67
EP KazMunayGas 3 11,861.6 13.28 2 10,622.2 19.25 +1,239.4 -5.97
Kazkommertsbank 4 4,967.8 5.56 4 4,860.7 8.81 +107.1 -3.25
BTA Bank 5 4,590.1 5.14 3 5,027.4 9.11 -437.3 -3.97
National Bank 6 4,370.3 4.89 5 4,315.8 7.82 +54.5 -2.93
Kazakhtelecom 7 2,939.7 3.29 6 2,911.8 5.28 +27.9 -1.98
ATF Bank 8 2,219.2 2.48 7 2,028.7 3.68 +190.5 -1.19
Alliance Bank 9 1,597.3 1.79 8 1,874.7 3.40 -277.4 -1.61
Bank CenterCredit 10 1,591.6 1.78 9 1,704.6 3.09 -113.1 -1.31
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of
market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of
shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This
indicator at the session closing as of April 30, 2008 was $89,318.0 m. There were
93 shares of 70 issuers in official securities list of KASE. A full list of codes
of issuers with the names of companies is published at
http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm
[2008-05-15]