ANALYSIS: In March 2008 dollar market in Kazakhstan characterized by lack of sharp floatation and remained stable in price terms.

/IRBIS, Vitaliy Tomskiy, April 18, 08/ - In March of 2008 volume of operations with foreign currency on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) made the equivalent of USD6,133.1 m. or KZT740,015.8 m. Compared to February of 2008, the volume of deals increased by $511.7 m. (KZT63,403.3 m.) or 9.4 % in dollar terms and 9.1 % in tenge terms. Relative to March of 2007, the volume of deals increased by 10.4% in dollar terms and by 7.5% in tenge terms. Stake of this sector in exchange turnover has increased from 32.1% in February, 2008 to 33.9% in March 2008. Overall, in March 2008 on KASE 3,207 (here and hereinafter corresponding indicator of the previous month is given in parentheses) (3,752) deals were concluded , including: in US dollar on TOD terms - 2,984 (3,420), on TOM terms - 190 (279); on SPOT terms - 13 (37); in Russian ruble - 19 (16), in euro 1 (0). In the total turnover of exchange currency market in MArch 2008, 99.94% of the total volume of concluded deals accounted for US dollar. Corresponding indicator of the previous month - 99.96%. In March, morning (main) session controlled 31.9% (46.3%) of exchange's turnover of currency market. To the stake of day session came 38.1% (31.3%), evening session - 30.0% (22.4%). In US dollar volume of operations on KASE in March, 2008 totaled $6,129.4 m. (KZT739,579.7 m.). For comparison, in February 2008 this indicator totaled $5,619.2 m. (KZT676,348.5 m.). in March 2007 - $5,552.5 m. (KZT688,247.6 m.). In March 2008 tenge appreciated to dollar with an average rate 1.55% APR. Last month, the correspondent indicator made 6.91% APR. Weighted average US dollar rate to tenge, calculated on deals of the primary session of March 2008 - KZT120.67 per unit, on all exchange deals - KZT120.66. For February 2008 corresponding indicators totaled KZT120.37 and KZT120.36 per a dollar. In euro in March, 2008, volume of deals on KASE made 0.5 m. euro to the sum of KZT92.9 m. (In February 2008, no deals were made). In Russian ruble volume of operations on KASE in March 2008 made 67,400 th. rubles for a total of KZT343.2 m. (in February 2008 - 53,600 th. rubles for a total of KZT264.0 m.). Judging from the change of the weighted average exchange rate (March 01, 08 = 5.0230; March 31, 08 = 5.1490), in the analyzed month tenge appreciated to ruble with average rate of 33.86% APR. US dollar market of Kazakhstan in March, notwithstanding IRBIS analysts expectations, turned out to be stable in price terms. At the same time it should be point out active being of National Bank dollar on the exchange market, which reacted fast on any changes. As a result, the market developed within horizontal price range of 120.30-120.80. The market, within the month was in the "bears" mood The banks, in condition of dollar decreasing on world markets, usually came with big dollar support. The period of tax payment in Kazakhstan also played a significant role in it, when STB needed in short term tenge liquidity. However, in March, judging by repo stakes "overnight" (the peak value in March - 4.0% APR), bank didn't suffer from considerable money deficit. The tax week passed calmly. At the same time, macroeconomic factors didn't change considerable during the month and still continue to develop good foe national currency. Prices on oil only give optimism, which continue to grow. But this growth is look more speculative, which increase possibility of serious price reducing of power supply. Taking protracted world credit crisis into account, it would undesirable of home market. In our opinion, we shouldn't expect considerable changes till the end of April. At the background of correction movement, after successful speculative "bear" game, the rate of American currency totaled near 120.80, in the first half of the month. [2008-04-22]