ANALYSIS: KASE corporate bonds market declines again March 2008

/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, April 15, 08/ - In March 2008 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 313 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional Financial Center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for the total of KZT11.5 bn. or USD95.2 m. at the current rate, effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 26.2% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in February 2008 - 43.4%) and 0.5% of the entire monthly exchange turnover (1.1%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in March and February of 2008 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ---------------------- Trend March 2008 March 2008 February compared to Indicator 2008 February 2008 ------------------------------------------- ------------ --------- ------------- Trades volume, th., USD 95,172.6 190,292.7 -50.0,% Trades volume, m., KZT 11,478.5 22,900.5 -49.9,% including, on offerings, th. USD 0 0 Х including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 Х including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 1,227.4 1,305.3 -6.0,% including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 148.1 157.1 -5.7,% Number of deals 313 243 +28.8,% Average daily number of deals 16 12 +42.4,% Average daily volume of deals, th. USD 5,009.1 9,061.6 -44.7,% Number of instruments, involved in deals 87 80 +8.8,% Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.0 1.2 -0.3,пп Stake of nego deals (volume), % 6.7 0.0001 +6.7,пп Participation of pension assets, % gross 21.0 29.1 -8.1,пп Participation of physical entities, % gross 10.0 6.9 +3.1,пп Participation of non-residents, % gross 15.8 0.1 +15.7,пп Number of exchange's members, 40.0 37.0 +8.1,% who made deals Market concentration, %* 40.5 55.9 -15.3,пп -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * the data for February 2008 was corrected. ** it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) March results demonstrated short life and artificiality of the corporate bonds market turnover increase in February. At the same time, it is hard to single out the leader among the denominations of debt instruments. However, the in-depth study of deals profile (by investors` base) shows that most of them are of "inner" character. The results of the previous month showed that the mentioned segment of market is of little attraction for investors. In March the price background of the exchange corporate bonds market looked as follows: of 87 denominations of the bonds, involved in deals on the secondary market, debt instruments of 76 denominations were traded with discount, 9 - with premium, 1 - at face value. The bonds CCBNb3 looked most re-purchased, their weighted average net price made 111.6 %. Bonds ASBNb1 looked the most re-sold (73.2%). We remind that in February, deals were conducted with bonds of 80 denominations, debt instruments of 66 denominations were traded with discount, 11 - with premium, 2 - at face value. The bonds MREKb3 looked the most re-purchased, their weighted average price made 109.1 %. Bonds ASFIb10 that were traded at 68.0%, looked the most re-sold. In March the weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market decreased to 93.9% from 94.6% (February, 2008). During the month the yield to maturity on concluded deals increased for 57 corporate bonds (in February - 54 denominations), and decreased for 19 (18), corporate bonds. There was nothing to compare with the yield of two securities was not . Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in March, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in February 2008 --------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Instruments Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 206 +2 206 +2 64 +2 B 30 +1 30 +1 30 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 236 +3 236 +3 94 +3 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 55 -1 55 -1 21 0 A+B+C 236 +3 291 +2 96 +3 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE corporate bond market in March 2008 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT ------------ -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Feb 29, 08 11,815.7 9.15 233.22 140.73 13,473.9 1,628.3 March 3, 08 11,806.5 9.15 233.19 140.70 146.1 17.6 March 4, 08 11,809.7 9.15 233.66 140.76 446.8 54.0 March 5, 08 11,807.4 9.17 233.53 140.70 144.1 17.4 March 6, 08 11,856.2 9.18 232.78 140.14 124.5 15.0 March 7, 08 11,856.2 9.17 232.87 140.17 1,355.0 163.5 March 11, 08 11,881.1 9.12 234.49 140.99 985.0 118.8 March 12, 08 11,876.9 9.31 233.37 140.36 1,152.7 139.2 March 13, 08 11,883.5 9.19 237.21 142.95 9,846.5 1,187.5 March 14, 08 11,889.1 9.28 233.41 139.95 5,564.0 670.3 March 17, 08 11,880.0 9.28 233.62 140.23 8,535.0 1,030.0 March 18, 08 11,928.5 9.30 235.75 141.80 977.7 118.0 March 19, 08 11,944.7 9.33 235.60 141.65 179.0 21.6 March 20, 08 11,957.1 9.36 235.68 141.61 25,107.1 3,024.2 March 21, 08 11,991.5 9.57 237.34 142.83 201.8 24.3 March 25, 08 11,980.5 9.64 236.53 142.06 718.3 86.7 March 26, 08 11,974.3 9.63 234.66 140.67 3,613.6 436.5 March 27, 08 11,979.1 9.64 237.06 142.39 2,073.6 250.2 March 28, 08 11,978.6 9.43 237.35 142.45 15,262.4 1,842.0 March 31, 08 11,978.6 9.74 236.31 141.49 18,739.4 2,261.7 ------------ -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +162.9 +0.6 +3.1 +0.8 % +1.4 +6.5 +1.3 +0.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in March 2008 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: ------------------------------------------ on for Code the last deal: last 365 days Volume of bond -------------- ------------- of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals -------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- aASFIb10 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 806.0 1 aASFIb7 14.00 14.00 14.00 11.80 14.00 17.5 1 aATFBb3 10.00 12.50 12.50 +3.00 9.50 12.50 35.1 2 aATFBb5 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 17.8 1 aATFBb6 8.40 9.50 9.50 8.40 9.50 52.2 3 aBTTRb1 17.68 17.68 17.68 9.08 17.68 18.3 1 aCCBNb14 11.00 13.00 13.00 11.00 13.00 31.9 2 AGKKb1 9.00 14.00 14.00 8.98 14.00 659.9 5 AKFIb1 12.40 12.40 12.40 12.40 12.40 145.9 1 aMAG_b1 12.06 12.06 12.06 -0.20 11.85 12.26 248.6 2 ASBNb1 26.75 30.25 30.25 +4.50 10.01 111.04 83.1 5 ASBNb3 14.50 19.70 19.70 8.03 19.70 65.6 4 ASBNb5 11.50 11.50 11.50 8.00 15.00 18.0 1 ASBNe2 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 12.00 12.00 16.7 1 ASELb1 13.04 13.04 13.04 +0.02 13.00 13.04 14.1 1 ASFIb12 9.70 9.70 9.70 0 8.43 9.90 16.6 1 ASFIb13 14.22 14.22 14.22 14.22 14.22 8.5 1 ASFIb3 11.00 11.00 11.00 6.00 11.93 41.3 1 ASFIb5 14.50 14.50 14.50 9.00 15.50 18.0 1 ASFIb7 14.00 15.00 15.00 +1.00 9.60 15.00 94.7 6 ATFBb3 10.00 13.00 13.00 +3.16 6.70 13.00 2,323.0 8 ATFBb4 10.50 13.00 13.00 +2.50 7.00 13.00 1,998.3 5 ATFBb5 11.50 12.50 12.50 8.15 12.50 535.7 6 ATFBb6 8.10 11.00 8.10 -0.90 6.21 11.00 593.4 8 BTAIb1 11.50 13.50 13.50 +2.49 7.10 13.50 54.5 4 BTAIb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 +1.00 10.10 14.00 16.4 1 BTAIb4 16.50 17.02 17.02 +1.02 8.80 106.15 864.8 4 BTAIb6 15.45 15.45 15.45 10.00 15.50 519.4 1 BTASb1 15.96 27.33 18.00 +2.50 9.00 27.33 110.2 6 BTASb4 15.00 20.77 16.00 +1.00 9.10 47.47 42.9 5 BTASb7 7.00 7.60 7.60 +0.60 6.73 13.50 8,666.9 6 BTTRb1 6.99 18.00 18.00 +10.00 6.99 19.20 103.0 5 CACMb1 12.52 12.52 12.52 +0.51 9.75 12.52 58.9 1 CCBNb14 9.50 16.00 16.00 7.50 16.00 950.9 10 CCBNb15 9.20 9.20 9.20 -0.30 9.20 10.50 1,732.6 1 CCBNb2 16.00 18.00 16.00 10.00 106.23 177.5 5 CCBNb3 13.00 14.80 13.00 8.58 15.00 223.4 2 CCBNb4 12.00 14.88 14.87 7.50 14.88 357.9 3 CSBNb2 11.00 13.00 13.00 +2.10 9.48 15.22 44.1 3 CSBNb3 9.50 10.00 10.00 +0.15 9.30 12.00 211.6 4 CSBNb5 11.00 12.00 12.00 +1.00 9.10 12.00 33.3 2 CSBNb6 11.25 11.25 11.25 0 9.11 13.25 44.8 3 DNTLb1 11.96 11.96 11.96 -0.01 11.96 12.30 26.0 1 DTJLb1 8.50 11.00 11.00 7.00 11.00 4,868.1 7 EUBNb3 9.50 13.95 13.95 8.50 13.95 2,011.3 9 EUBNb4 9.00 15.95 9.03 -2.97 9.00 15.95 14,350.8 12 EXBNb1 9.50 19.00 10.43 9.11 19.00 8,062.2 23 GLOTb2 7.00 7.00 7.00 -0.50 7.00 15.00 62.1 3 HSBKb11 8.50 8.50 8.50 7.50 8.50 15.3 1 HSBKb3 10.90 10.90 10.90 6.92 93.00 182.4 1 HSBKb7 9.50 12.50 11.50 +2.24 8.00 12.50 65.9 5 HSBKb8 9.70 12.00 9.70 7.70 12.00 2,123.4 3 HSBKb9 13.00 13.50 13.00 7.72 13.50 2,449.9 6 ISKEb1 13.20 13.20 13.20 -0.80 12.00 14.00 145.6 1 JGOKb2 10.50 12.00 10.50 9.50 12.00 6,415.2 2 KAFIb1 9.00 10.00 10.00 +1.00 6.75 10.00 256.8 8 KASTb2 9.99 9.99 9.99 9.99 12.00 17.9 1 KAZIb2 12.50 12.50 12.50 0 10.30 13.50 166.8 3 KKAGb1 15.50 19.00 19.00 +3.50 10.30 19.00 44.8 3 KKAGb3 16.00 19.50 19.50 +3.20 10.00 21.29 41.9 3 KRZHb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 7.73 12.00 26.6 1 KZIKb16 11.00 12.00 11.00 -0.20 11.00 12.00 1,290.3 2 KZIKb2 13.40 13.40 13.40 8.60 13.40 275.3 2 KZIKb3 13.00 13.00 13.00 7.88 13.00 74.5 1 KZIKb5 14.00 14.00 14.00 11.40 14.00 41.0 1 KZPSb1 8.00 8.00 8.00 6.50 73.00 24.7 2 MREKb2 16.00 16.00 16.00 +2.00 9.05 16.00 17.4 1 MREKb4 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.45 264.3 2 NFBNb1 13.78 13.78 13.78 9.51 14.00 396.6 1 NRBNb4 13.50 19.50 15.07 8.33 19.50 151.4 6 NRBNb5 8.35 12.00 8.39 -3.61 5.80 13.00 1,056.3 3 ORDBb2 12.51 13.56 13.56 +0.06 11.50 13.56 253.2 3 ORDKb1 11.99 11.99 11.99 0 11.99 15.00 27.4 2 ORNKb1 17.74 23.25 23.25 6.35 26.85 145.7 5 PDESb1 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 16.1 1 SATCb1 14.40 14.50 14.40 14.40 14.50 4,434.8 6 TEBNb2 11.00 15.00 11.00 6.00 17.00 108.9 5 TSBNb2 13.00 15.00 15.00 10.74 15.00 40.3 3 TSBNb4 16.01 16.01 16.01 +1.01 8.50 17.00 2,740.5 1 TSBNb5 11.00 13.00 13.00 +2.00 10.00 13.00 5,340.7 11 TSNAb1 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 11.20 7,595.9 1 TSSMb1 12.50 12.50 12.50 0 9.27 14.00 12.2 1 TXBNb2 11.50 12.00 11.50 0 8.76 13.50 352.2 2 TXBNb3 10.00 12.00 12.00 7.00 12.00 168.4 4 -------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- 86 88,783.9 310 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - December 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2008-04-15]