ANALYSIS: In February 2008 dollar market in Kazakhstan stayed stable

/IRBIS, Vitaliy Tomskiy, Ruslan Dzyubaylo, March 18, 08/ - In February of 2008 volume of operations with foreign currency on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) made the equivalent of USD5,621.4 m. or KZT676,612.5 m. Compared to January 2008, the volume of deals increased by $965.3 m. (KZT116,205.4 m.) or by 20.7% in dollar and tenge terms. Relative to February of 2007, the volume of deals increased by 16.8% in dollar terms and by 12.6% in tenge terms. Stake of this sector in exchange turnover has increased from 22.7% in January 2008 to 32.1% in February 2008. Overall, in February 2008 on KASE 3,752 (here and hereinafter corresponding indicator of the previous month is given in parentheses) (3,639) deals were concluded , including: in US dollar on TOD terms - 3,420 (3,361), on TOM terms - 279 (228); on SPOT terms - 37 (39); in Russian ruble - 16 (9), in euro 0 (2). In the total turnover of exchange currency market in February 2008, 99.96% of the total volume of concluded deals accounted for US dollar. Corresponding indicator of the previous month - 99.94%. In February, morning (main) session controlled 46.3% (37.7%) of exchange's turnover of currency market. To the stake of day session came 31.3% (32.6%), evening session - 22.4% (29.8%). In US dollar volume of operations on KASE in February totaled $5,619.2 m. (KZT676,348.5 m.). For comparison, in January 2008 this indicator totaled $4,653.1 m. (KZT560,050.3 m.). in February 2007 - $4,813.4 m. (KZT601,046.6 m.). In February 2008 speed of tenge devaluation to dollar is estimated at 6.91% APR. Last month tenge was appreciating to dollar with speed of 0.82% APR. Weighted average US dollar rate to tenge, calculated on deals of the primary session of February 2008 - KZT120.37 per unit, on all exchange deals - KZT120.36. For January 2008 corresponding indicators totaled KZT120.32 and KZT120.36 per a dollar. In euro in February, 2008, no deals were made on KASE (in January 2008 - 1.5 m. euro for amount of KZT265.8 m.) In Russian ruble volume of operations on KASE in February 2008 made 53,600 th. rubles for a total of KZT264.0 m. (in January 2007 - 18,500 th. rubles for a total of KZT91.0 m.). Judging from the change of the weighted average exchange rate (February 1, 2008 - 4.9220, February 29, 2008 - 5.0230), in the analyzed month speed of tenge devaluation to ruble is estimated at 29.12% APR. February on exchange currency market of Kazakhstan was enough stable in price relation. Volatility of American currency arte during the month was insignificant. During first half of month development of market was executed in the frames of horizontal and narrow price channel. During whole this period on the market had stayed the relative balance between supply and demand for dollar from the side of STB. At that volumes of deals on morning main session were comparatively low. Market had livened up with beginning of tax week. Some of second tier banks experienced the problems with tenge liquidity, what was observed by rates on money market. However, the serous fall of dollar did not happen. On the contrary, American currency, having felt the support form side of National bank, which had actively purchased dollars in second half of moth, had started to grow in price. But to beginning of March, having met the enough strong resistance at the rate of 120.80 rate of dollar had stabilized slightly. As a whole, market conjuncture experience the more serious changes. It already cannot be said about stability of main ratemaking factors. Continuing weakening of dollar arte to euro and other world currency had lead to re- orientation of capital to oil market. As result, prices for oil are striking the new records, which may support the internal dollar market. According to prognosis of IRBIS analysts, till the end of March we, most likely, will fix the process of gradual devaluation of tenge, what is some degree is inevitable in current situation. As it was already noted, worsening of trade balance after the account of current operations is inadmissible. Dollar, by our prognosis, in last decade of March will be traded a little bit higher than 121.00. [2008-03-18]