ANALYSIS: In February 2008 the corporate bonds market on KASE has somewhat livened up, but still is low liquid

18.03.08 13:54
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, March 18, 08/ - In February 2008 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 239 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT22,743.4 m. or USD189.0 m. at the current rate, effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 43.4% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in January 2008 - 32.0%) and 1.1% of the entire monthly exchange turnover (0.5%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in February and January of 2008 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: -------------------- Trend February 2008 February January compared to Indicator 2008 2008 January 2008 ------------------------------------------- ---------- --------- ------------- Trades volume, th., USD 188,987.4 103,402.7 +82.8,% Trades volume, m., KZT 22,743.4 12,439.4 +82.8,% including, on offerings, th. USD 0 0 Х including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 0 Х including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 1,305.3 300.3 +334.7,% including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 157.1 36.1 +334.9,% Number of deals 239 218 +9.6,% Average daily number of deals 11.6 11.7 -1.0,% Average daily volume of deals, th. USD 9,061.6 5,430.2 +66.9,% Number of instruments, involved in deals 80 80 0 Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.3 2.8 -1.5,pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.0001 2.4 -2.4,pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 29.1 25.1 +4.1,pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 6.9 13.0 -6.1,pp Participation of non-residents, % gross 0.1 1.4 -1.3,pp Number of exchange's members, 37 37 0 who made deals Market concentration, %* 55.9 5.8 +50.1,pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) Turnover of corporate bonds market in February had increased significantly compared to results of January, mainly by account of livening out of operations on STF RFCA. In terms of high volatility on world stock platforms investors are finding the alternative ways of investments on less developed markets. However significant decrease of volume of trades on nego deals, absence of floatations since beginning of year and low activity on trade deals are indicating that investors still consider the given exchange's sector as not attractive. Price background of exchange market of corporate bonds in February looked in the next way: of 80 denominations of bonds, involved in deals on the secondary market, debt instruments of 66 denominations were traded with discount, 11 - with premium, 2 - at face value. The bonds MREKb3 looked the most re-purchased, their weighted average net price made 109.1 %. Bonds ASFIb10 looked the most re-sold (68.0%). We remind that in January, deals were conducted with bonds of 80 denominations, debt instruments of 56 denominations were traded with discount, 22 - with premium, 1 - at face value. The bonds TKUDb1 looked the most re-purchased, their weighted average price made 116.9 %. Bonds BTASb3 that were traded at 62.1%, looked the most re-sold. The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market decreased to 94.6% from 95.9% in January. Over the month the yield to maturity on concluded deals increased for buyers of 54 corporate bonds, and decreased for 18 corporate bonds. There was nothing to compare with the yield of 3 securities. In January the corresponding indicators showed 38, 34 and 4. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in February, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in February 2008 --------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Instruments: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 204 +2 204 +2 62 -1 B 29 0 29 0 29 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 233 +2 233 +2 91 -1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 56 0 56 0 21 0 A+B+C 233 +2 289 +2 92 -1 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in February 2008 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT ---------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Jan 31, 08 11,993.7 9.05 230.22 139.72 831.1 99.9 Feb 1, 08 11,998.3 8.96 232.68 141.34 25,947.0 3,116.5 Feb 4, 08 11,994.6 9.06 230.07 139.47 9,349.4 1,123.7 Feb 5, 08 11,987.2 9.07 230.53 139.71 9,243.9 1,112.5 Feb 6, 08 11,985.8 8.96 234.09 142.09 3,328.1 400.6 Feb 7, 08 11,992.3 8.98 233.75 141.77 13,795.2 1,658.7 Feb 8, 08 11,987.2 8.99 234.03 141.90 47,530.1 5,720.2 Feb 11, 08 11,987.2 9.00 234.26 142.05 5,130.8 617.5 Feb 12, 08 11,986.3 9.11 231.27 139.96 10,959.2 1,319.2 Feb 13, 08 11,988.6 9.10 231.01 139.74 1,616.6 194.5 Feb 14, 08 11,757.0 9.10 231.64 140.13 10,819.8 1,300.0 Feb 15, 08 11,752.4 9.12 231.87 140.24 4,648.7 559.0 Feb 18, 08 11,761.7 9.14 231.86 140.05 4,603.0 552.7 Feb 19, 08 11,842.4 9.03 235.43 142.51 7,789.6 936.2 Feb 20, 08 11,859.6 9.15 232.95 140.88 3,310.4 397.6 Feb 21, 08 11,854.9 9.16 233.02 140.85 306.5 36.8 Feb 22, 08 11,847.0 9.17 233.24 140.88 3,848.6 463.3 Feb 25, 08 11,841.8 9.17 233.10 140.78 271.7 32.7 Feb 26, 08 11,830.2 9.07 236.74 143.08 3,991.0 481.9 Feb 27, 08 11,829.3 9.13 233.25 140.78 2,156.1 260.4 Feb 28, 08 11,814.8 9.13 233.71 141.11 8,173.2 987.9 Feb 29, 08 11,815.7 9.15 233.22 140.73 13,473.9 1,628.3 ---------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend -177.9 +0.09 +3.0 +1.0 % -1.5 +1.0 +1.3 +0.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in February 2008 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: ---------------------------------------- on for Code the last deal: last 365 days Volume of bond -------------- ------------- of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- aATFBb3 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 18.4 1 aATFBb4 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 17.3 1 ALVZb1 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 369.6 1 aMAG_b1 11.85 12.26 12.26 11.85 12.50 1,269.6 2 ASBNb1 19.00 25.75 25.75 10.01 111.04 53.2 5 ASBNb4 13.50 13.50 13.50 8.50 18.20 18.5 1 ASBNb6 17.50 17.50 17.50 +1.50 8.70 18.00 16.1 1 ASBNe2 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 16.7 1 ASELb1 13.02 13.02 13.02 13.00 13.02 13.9 1 ASFIb10 14.00 14.00 14.00 8.00 14.00 945.7 2 ASFIb12 9.70 9.70 9.70 -0.20 8.43 9.90 15.0 1 ASFIb4 14.51 16.00 16.00 +1.50 9.48 16.00 101.0 3 ASFIb7 13.93 14.00 14.00 +1.00 9.60 15.00 269.1 6 ATFBb3 9.50 9.84 9.84 6.10 9.84 222.7 4 ATFBb4 10.00 10.50 10.50 +2.18 7.00 12.00 8,870.8 7 ATFBb6 8.35 9.00 9.00 +0.50 6.21 9.49 2,581.8 8 BTAIb1 10.95 11.01 11.01 +3.91 7.10 11.01 1,246.7 4 BTAIb10 13.50 13.50 13.50 7.99 14.00 7,430.2 1 BTAIb13 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 76.3 1 BTAIb14 8.50 13.50 13.50 7.30 13.50 17,265.3 6 BTAIb2 14.50 14.50 14.50 +1.50 10.30 14.50 15.1 1 BTAIb3 13.00 13.00 13.00 10.10 13.00 16.7 1 BTAIb4 16.00 16.00 16.00 8.78 106.15 213.8 3 BTAIb7 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.97 10.00 16.8 1 BTASb1 13.50 15.50 15.50 +5.20 9.00 15.96 79.9 5 BTASb2 15.00 16.50 16.50 +0.50 10.10 17.50 2,458.5 4 BTASb3 13.25 13.50 13.50 +0.50 9.50 47.77 16,116.3 4 BTASb4 13.00 15.00 15.00 +1.00 7.00 47.47 10,114.0 13 BTASb5 8.50 8.50 8.50 +2.00 6.50 8.50 79.3 1 BTASb7 7.00 7.00 7.00 0 6.73 13.50 61,779.6 27 BTTRb1 8.00 8.00 8.00 -4.00 8.00 12.00 21.4 1 CACMb1 9.80 12.01 12.01 9.75 12.01 173.1 7 CCBNb15 9.50 9.50 9.50 0 9.20 10.50 18.2 1 CCBNb7 12.00 14.00 14.00 +2.00 7.50 14.00 27.9 2 CSBNb2 10.90 10.90 10.90 -0.10 9.48 15.22 997.2 1 CSBNb3 9.85 9.85 9.85 -0.15 9.30 12.00 7,884.6 1 CSBNb5 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.10 11.00 16.8 1 CSBNb6 11.25 11.25 11.25 0 9.11 13.25 8.9 1 DNTLb1 11.97 11.97 11.97 0 11.97 12.30 25.8 1 EUBNb4 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.50 6,658.4 1 GLOTb1 10.00 12.26 12.26 +2.26 8.20 13.78 530.9 2 GLOTb2 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.00 12.00 1,324.5 2 HSBKb7 9.25 9.50 9.26 8.00 9.50 11,791.8 3 ISKEb1 14.00 14.00 14.00 12.00 14.00 203.2 1 KAFIb1 9.00 9.00 9.00 +0.23 6.75 10.00 12.5 1 KARMb2 9.50 10.00 9.50 +0.50 7.50 10.00 43.6 3 KAZIb2 12.50 12.50 12.50 10.10 13.50 13.4 1 KIBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 +1.99 12.01 14.00 17.5 1 KKAGb1 10.30 15.50 15.50 10.30 15.50 107.9 3 KKAGb3 12.50 16.30 16.30 +4.80 10.00 16.30 45.8 3 KKGBb2 21.34 21.34 21.34 +1.11 1.89 21.34 9.9 1 KKGBe6 10.20 10.20 10.20 -0.53 6.96 10.73 14.5 1 KONDb1 4.42 4.42 4.42 -0.61 4.42 10.20 94.6 1 KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 0 8.66 8.90 106.5 1 KZIKb10 10.25 10.25 10.25 -0.75 5.50 11.00 36.7 1 KZIKb16 11.20 11.20 11.20 11.20 11.50 7,970.4 6 KZIKb6 13.50 13.50 13.50 0 6.20 13.50 24.2 1 KZIKb8 9.50 9.50 9.50 0 7.00 12.70 1,917.7 3 KZIKb9 10.25 10.25 10.25 -0.75 6.00 11.00 39.7 1 KZNHb2 14.00 15.00 15.00 0 9.85 16.00 263.1 2 MAG_b1 12.00 13.20 12.56 11.68 13.20 1,365.3 8 MREKb2 14.00 14.00 14.00 9.05 16.00 19.0 1 MREKb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 8.50 9.50 95.9 1 MREKb5 13.00 13.71 13.70 13.00 13.71 5,412.4 9 NRBNb2 13.50 21.00 21.00 +12.01 8.99 21.00 3,845.9 16 NRBNb5 12.00 12.00 12.00 +6.20 5.80 13.00 241.9 2 ORDBb2 12.43 13.50 13.50 +0.98 11.50 13.50 286.4 9 ORDKb1 11.99 15.00 11.99 -0.01 11.99 15.00 373.4 3 PRKRb1 7.97 7.97 7.97 7.97 8.01 26.4 1 RESCb1 16.00 16.00 16.00 11.50 16.00 74.1 1 TEMAb1 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 16.00 1,727.0 1 TMLZb1 11.32 11.32 11.32 +0.32 11.00 13.00 6.7 1 TSBNb4 15.00 15.00 15.00 +1.00 8.50 15.00 14.0 1 TSBNb5 11.00 11.00 11.00 10.00 12.00 250.4 1 TSSMb1 12.00 12.50 12.50 +0.25 9.07 14.00 39.8 4 TXBNb2 11.50 12.00 11.50 -0.50 8.76 13.50 4,392.8 8 VITAb5 15.00 15.00 15.00 +0.24 9.40 17.12 12.8 1 ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ------ ------ --------- -------- 77 190,292.5 240 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - December 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2008-03-18]