ANALYSIS: In January 2008 conjuncture of GS market has not changed

/IRBIS, Ruslan Dzyubaylo, February 11, 08/ - In January of 2008 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in GS purchase and sale sector 82 deals for a total of KZT60,052.3 m. were registered (equivalent to 499.6 m. US dollar), which amounted 2.4% of the total exchange turnover of the month (in December - 1.8%). Relative to December of 2007, the turnover of the sector increased by 9.6% in tenge and by 104.0% in dollar terms. Relative to January 2007, it increased by 30.1% in tenge and by 36.3% dollar terms. In the sector of primary market the Finance ministry conducted two auctions to offer MEKAM. On January 17, in the trade system of the stock exchange, the auction was conducted for offering of governmental short-term discount treasury liabilities of Ministry of finance MEKKAM-3 of the 305th issue (KZK1KM033054, MKM003_0305; KZT100; January 17, 08 - June 17, 08, annual/ actual). Bond's price was a subject of trade. Initially, it was planned to raise KZT13,000.00 m. 14 primary dealers participated in the trades; they submitted 50 limit bids. Total volume of those bids (volume of demand) totaled KZT69,680.6 m. (546.5 % of the offered volume of bonds). Yield at demand varied from 6,8000 % APR to 11.0002 %APR, having totaled in weighted average terms 7.8462 %APR. By results of trades, the issuer made cut-off at the price of demand at 98.2893% (7.0001%APR) and satisfied bids for purchases of 157,000,000 bonds to the sum of KZT15,431,480,549.98, which exceeded the planned floatation volume by 20.8%. 97.9% of total volume of offered bonds was purchase by STB, 2.1% - by STB clients. On January 30, in the trade system of the stock exchange, the specialized trades for offering of governmental long-term savings treasury liabilities of Ministry of finance MEUJKAM -96 (KZKAKY080026, MUJ096_0002; KZT1,000; January 30, 08 - January 30, 16, 30/360) were conducted. Fixed coupon was a subject of trade. Initially, it was planned to raise KZT14,000.00 m. Four primary dealers participated in the trades; they submitted 16 limit bids that remained active by the time of expiration time of bids confirmation. Total volume of these bids (volume of demand) totaled KZT10,100.0 m. (72.1 % of the offered volume of bonds). The rate of fixed coupon varied from 0.30% APR to 1.50 %APR, having totaled in weighted average terms 0.59%APR. By results of trade, the fixed coupon rate was set at the level of 0.80% APR; bids were satisfied to the sum of KZT8,600.0 m. (61.4% of planned volume of floatation). The forecasted yield to maturity of the floated bonds is estimated at 19.57% APR with the circulation term of bonds equal to eight years. The secondary GS market still remained inactive in January. Same as the previous months, the main volume of trades fell at the primary market of GS. The characteristic peculiarity of January was the shift of traders' accent on middle- and long-term state bonds. However, it is not possible to talk about a fundamental change in the slope angle of yield curve of Kazakhstani GS yet because of a low number and also "internal" character of those deals. Overall, on the inactive market of state debt, no tendencies can be traced yet. Statistic indicators of Kazakhstan GS purchase and sale sector in January and the structure of the secondary market turnover are given in the table (in parentheses - comparable indicators of previous month). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer,% year. Maturity ------------------------------------- Volume, m. term, last weighted tenge in Number days min max deal average market price of deals -------------- ----- ------ ------ -------------- ---------------- -------- Discount GS (KZT): notes of National bank, MEKKAM - 24.7% (66.2%) of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 8 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 (7.52) 3,998.8 2 8 - 14 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 ( -) 149.9 1 15 - 28 5.50 6.16 6.16 5.51 (7.00) 4,074.6 4 182 - 364 6.44 7.00 6.44 6.46 ( -) 687.6 2 -------------- ----- ------ ------ -------------- ---------------- -------- Subtotal 8910.9(23033.2) 9(22) -------------- ----- ------ ------ -------------- ---------------- -------- Coupon GS (KZT): МЕОКАМ, MEUKAM, MEIKAM - 75.3% (33.8%) of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 730 6.14 6.59 6.59 6.55 (6.52) 21,169.2 16 731 - 1095 6.67 9.00 6.69 8.03 (6.50) 464.6 3 1096 - 1460 6.71 6.73 6.71 6.72 (6.52) 601.2 2 1461 - 1825 5.47 5.50 5.47 5.49 ( -) 2,101.8 2 1826 - 2190 9.98 19.41 19.41 17.73 (13.36) 2,534.7 15 more than 2191 7.12 9.90 7.12 9.89 ( -) 238.5 4 -------------- ----- ------ ------ -------------- ---------------- -------- Subtotal 27110.0(11769.9) 42(30) -------------- ----- ------ ------ -------------- ---------------- -------- TOTAL 36020.8(34803.1) 51(38) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The stake of exchange's turnover in total volume of purchase and sale deals of Kazakhstan's GS secondary market totaled to 99.7% in January (in December - 99.5%). [2008-02-14]