ANALYSIS: In January 2008 repo rates on KASE increased because of traditional high need in tenge, characteristic for the beginning of a year

/IRBIS, Valeriy Khegay, February 6, 08/ - In January 2008 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in the sector of repo operations 6,459 deals were registered for a total of KZT1,812.5 bn. or USD15,056.5 m. at the current rate on dates of concluding deals, which is 73.3% of the total turnover of KASE in the given month (in December 2007 - 57.0%). Compared to December 2007 the volume of transactions increased by KZT52.3 bn. ($556.5 m.) or by 3.0% (by 3.8% in dollar terms). Relative to January 2007 the volume of transactions decreased by KZT219.8 bn. ($1,100.3 m.) or by 10.8% (by 6.8% times in dollar terms). Stake of the exchange turnover in the total volume of repo deals at the Kazakhstan market in January on comparable operations totaled 100%, in December 2007 - 100%. Structure of repo market turnover at KASE in analyzed month was as follows: - the stake of automatic repo transactions was 92.9% of the sector's turnover (KZT1,684.1 bn.), including deals in government securities (GS) - 76.7% (KZT1,390.9 bn.), deals in corporate securities (CS) - 16.2% (KZT293.2 bn.); - the stake of repo transactions, conducted by nego deals method was 7.1% of the sector's turnover (KZT128.4 bn.), including deals in GS - 0.7% (KZT13.1 bn.), deals in CS - 6.4% (KZT115.3 bn.). For comparison, structure of stock exchange's repo market in Decemebr, 2007 was as follows: autorepo - 94.4% (GS - 75.7%; CS - 18.7%); repo by nego method - 5.6% (GS - 0.4%; CS - 5.2%). In the first month of a new year on repo market, a growth of rates with a subsequent downward correction was observed. The most pronounced rise was noted at the beginning of the second half of January when TONIA indicator increased almost twice to 10.35% APR, and the weighted average rate on repo operations with seven0day term that had had the second place by quantity and volume of deals grew from 7.39 % APR to 9.38 % APR. In the opinion of IRBIS analysts, this can be explained by the need to make payments in the state budget and the need in tenge of the companies, traditional for the first quarter of each year (annual payments in the budget, repayment on the long-term contracts, payment to the auditors and other expenses, directly or indirectly related to the end of year). It is worth noting the high degree of participation of the National Bank in this segment of market in the analyzed month. Following the main directions of a new monetary and credit policy, the National Bank actively satisfied the needs in money of the second tier banks, having smoothing by that the sharp fluctuations of rates. In February IRBIS specialists expect the conservation of the repo rates on the current level. Among the factors that are able to hold the decrease in yield on repo operations the next can be emphasized: reduction of banks' in buying dollar, and also floatation of MEOKAM and MUIKAM, planned by the Ministry of finance. Thus, floatation of MUIKAM can tie some part of free money and will work for growth of TONIA indicator. Below tables are given, which characterize primary segments of repo market of KASE in January 2008 on opening operations in tenge (market's stake in titles of tables is given according to the actual volume of operations, including deals of opening and closing repo; information on direct deals with CS (5.9% of the market) are not published due to a very big volume of the table). Automatic repo with GS - 76.7% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Repo rate, % APR Instrument Volume, Num- Market ------------------------------------- ber (currency, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted KZT of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average m. deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ KZT_000 2.00 1.00 3.50 1.00 1.80 7,500.0 6 1.11 KZT_001 4.00 0.10 20.00 1.00 4.55 509,968.3 1288 75.28 KZT_002 4.00 0.50 8.70 2.00 3.29 17,111.0 23 2.53 KZT_003 6.00 1.00 9.00 2.00 4.34 10,505.0 34 1.55 KZT_007 9.50 4.00 12.00 5.50 8.03 83,497.0 138 12.33 KZT_014 9.00 5.70 9.50 7.00 8.36 29,998.0 41 4.43 KZT_028 9.50 8.50 12.00 9.50 9.40 18,805.0 64 2.78 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ----- ------ ИТОГО 677,384.4 1,594 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Automatic repo with CS - 16.2% of the market ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Instrument ------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market (security, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, term, days) deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ ASBN_090 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 1,978.0 5 1.37 ASBNb3_001 5.50 5.00 7.50 7.50 6.24 617.0 6 0.43 ASBNb3_003 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 60.0 1 0.04 ASBNb3_007 8.00 8.00 10.00 9.50 9.39 479.0 6 0.33 ASBNb4_001 5.50 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.51 598.0 5 0.41 ASBNb4_007 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.25 229.0 3 0.16 ASBNb4_014 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 23.0 2 0.02 ASFIb5_001 6.00 5.50 8.00 8.00 6.27 813.0 5 0.56 ASFIb5_003 9.00 6.50 9.00 8.00 7.34 295.0 3 0.20 ASFIb5_007 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.42 1,687.0 9 1.17 ASFIb5_014 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.81 258.0 3 0.18 ASFIb5_030 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.0 1 0.01 ASFIb6_003 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 50.0 1 0.03 ASFIb7_001 6.50 4.00 8.00 6.50 6.16 2,073.0 12 1.44 ASFIb7_003 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 375.0 1 0.26 ASFIb7_007 9.50 8.50 10.00 9.00 9.39 2,902.0 11 2.01 ASFIb7_014 10.00 10.00 11.50 10.50 10.71 882.0 8 0.61 ASFIb8_007 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 230.0 1 0.16 ASFIb9_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 109.0 9 0.08 ASFIp_001 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 215.0 2 0.15 ASFIp_007 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1,000.0 1 0.69 ASFIp_014 12.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 2,006.0 3 1.39 ASFIp_028 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 11.84 6,097.0 9 4.22 ATFBb3_007 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 1,400.0 2 0.97 ATFBb4_001 7.00 7.00 9.50 9.00 9.20 400.0 5 0.28 ATFBb4_002 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.26 780.0 8 0.54 ATFBb4_014 10.50 10.00 11.50 10.00 10.78 840.0 6 0.58 ATFBb6_001 6.00 5.00 6.00 5.00 5.17 30.0 2 0.02 ATFBb6_028 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 460.0 3 0.32 BRKZe2_001 7.00 5.00 7.00 5.00 6.07 2,150.0 2 1.49 BRKZe2_003 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 500.0 1 0.35 BRKZe2_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 1,000.0 1 0.69 BRKZe3_001 7.00 5.00 7.00 5.00 5.80 1,476.0 3 1.02 BRKZe4_001 7.00 5.00 7.00 5.00 6.17 618.0 3 0.43 BTAIb14002 9.00 8.00 12.00 8.00 9.14 1,173.0 5 0.81 BTAIb6_001 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 5.56 307.0 2 0.21 BTAIb6_007 8.00 8.00 9.50 9.00 9.31 857.0 5 0.59 BTAIb6_014 11.00 9.50 11.00 10.50 10.44 187.0 4 0.13 BTAS_001 5.00 4.00 11.00 6.50 6.22 5,914.7 36 4.10 BTAS_007 11.50 6.50 14.00 8.00 10.66 17,091.7 74 11.84 BTAS_030 11.00 10.50 15.00 15.00 13.51 5,555.4 15 3.85 BTAS_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 3,200.1 7 2.22 BTASb1_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 64.0 4 0.04 BTASb2_028 10.50 10.50 11.00 11.00 10.90 188.0 2 0.13 BTASb3_014 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 91.0 3 0.06 BTASb4_007 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 39.0 1 0.03 BTASb4_014 10.85 9.50 10.85 9.50 10.48 595.0 4 0.41 BTASb4_028 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 39.0 1 0.03 BTASb5_001 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 124.0 3 0.09 BTASb5_007 9.00 8.00 9.50 8.00 8.76 2,107.0 9 1.46 BTASb5_014 10.00 10.00 10.50 10.50 10.20 129.0 2 0.09 BTASb5_028 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 70.0 1 0.05 BTASb7_001 7.00 6.50 7.00 6.50 6.91 458.0 5 0.32 BTASb7_007 9.50 9.00 10.50 9.00 9.85 1,215.0 6 0.84 CCBN_001 7.00 3.00 7.00 6.00 6.55 227.0 5 0.16 CCBN_007 10.50 9.00 11.50 11.50 10.18 1,051.0 11 0.73 CCBN_014 11.00 0.00 12.00 11.25 11.36 2,979.0 21 2.06 CCBN_030 9.00 9.00 13.00 12.50 12.09 1,032.0 10 0.71 CCBN_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 8,558.0 5 5.93 CCBNb12007 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 600.0 2 0.42 CCBNb13001 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 161.0 1 0.11 CCBNb13007 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.25 366.0 2 0.25 CCBNb13014 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 183.0 1 0.13 CCBNb14028 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 12.50 150.0 1 0.10 CSBNb4_007 11.00 9.00 11.00 9.00 10.55 1,117.1 15 0.77 CSBNb5_007 11.00 10.50 11.00 10.50 10.70 878.0 5 0.61 CSBNb6_007 11.00 9.00 11.00 9.00 9.82 416.0 5 0.29 DNBN_028 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 14.50 21.0 2 0.01 EUBNb3_001 5.50 4.00 5.50 4.00 4.63 345.0 4 0.24 EUBNb3_007 9.00 8.00 9.50 8.00 8.54 895.0 6 0.62 EUBNb3_014 11.00 10.00 11.00 10.50 10.72 1,614.0 13 1.12 EUBNb3_028 11.00 10.50 11.00 10.50 10.53 320.0 2 0.22 HSBKb10007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 100.0 1 0.07 HSBKb7_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 325.0 1 0.23 HSBKb9_001 8.00 5.00 8.00 7.00 6.32 188.0 4 0.13 HSBKp1_001 6.50 3.50 7.00 6.50 4.61 2,641.0 17 1.83 HSBKp1_003 6.00 6.00 9.00 6.00 8.07 1,809.0 7 1.25 HSBKp1_007 9.50 8.50 10.00 8.50 9.01 1,612.0 3 1.12 HSBKp1_014 10.00 10.00 11.00 10.50 10.76 423.0 3 0.29 KKGB_001 4.00 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.47 86.0 5 0.06 KKGB_007 11.00 11.00 12.00 12.00 11.64 218.0 3 0.15 KKGB_028 10.00 10.00 12.00 12.00 11.66 58.0 2 0.04 KKGBb2_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 812.3 11 0.56 KKGBb2_014 11.00 10.00 11.00 10.00 10.64 1,762.2 5 1.22 KKGBp_007 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 4.0 1 0.00 KKGBp_014 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 9.0 1 0.01 KZIKb11007 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 160.0 1 0.11 KZIKb12028 12.00 12.00 13.00 13.00 12.69 802.0 3 0.56 KZIKb2_028 12.00 11.00 12.00 11.00 11.67 180.0 2 0.12 KZIKb3_014 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 300.0 1 0.21 KZIKb6_007 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 56.0 1 0.04 KZIKb8_007 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 937.0 1 0.65 KZIKb9_014 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 730.0 2 0.51 KZIKb9_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 71.0 1 0.05 KZTCb1_007 11.00 10.50 11.00 10.50 10.63 148.0 7 0.10 KZTK_014 11.00 9.00 11.00 9.00 10.26 86.0 4 0.06 NFBN_028 9.00 9.00 13.00 9.00 10.44 2,402.0 20 1.66 NRBNb2_001 5.50 4.50 7.50 4.50 5.56 1,828.1 6 1.27 NRBNb2_003 6.50 6.00 6.50 6.00 6.38 196.0 3 0.14 NRBNb2_007 10.00 9.50 10.00 9.50 9.60 1,230.0 5 0.85 NRBNb4_001 5.00 5.00 7.00 7.00 6.34 679.0 3 0.47 NRBNb4_007 11.00 8.50 11.00 9.00 9.40 793.0 6 0.55 NRBNb5_001 5.50 4.50 6.50 6.50 5.57 3,465.0 11 2.40 NRBNb5_003 5.50 5.00 5.50 5.00 5.21 453.0 2 0.31 NRBNb5_007 8.00 8.00 10.50 9.50 9.64 1,372.0 16 0.95 ORDB_003 6.00 6.00 10.00 10.00 9.82 178.0 2 0.12 ORDB_007 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 240.0 4 0.17 ORDB_014 11.50 11.50 14.00 14.00 13.39 732.0 12 0.51 ORDB_028 14.50 14.00 15.00 14.50 14.65 1,255.0 17 0.87 ORNKb1_007 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 28.0 1 0.02 ORNKb1_014 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 42.0 2 0.03 PRKRb2_007 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 112.0 5 0.08 PRKRb2_014 9.50 9.50 11.00 10.50 10.55 1,129.0 8 0.78 PRKRb2_028 11.00 10.50 13.00 11.00 12.10 384.0 10 0.27 RDGZ_001 5.00 1.00 8.50 1.00 7.78 9,099.1 11 6.30 RDGZ_007 11.50 9.00 11.50 10.00 10.31 772.1 9 0.53 RDGZ_014 10.50 10.40 11.50 10.50 10.94 1,408.1 11 0.98 RDGZ_028 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 62.0 2 0.04 ROSA_028 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 180.0 2 0.12 ROSA_090 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 120.0 1 0.08 TEBN_001 7.00 4.50 7.00 4.50 6.19 1,449.0 9 1.00 TEBN_007 11.50 9.00 11.50 11.50 10.68 1,340.0 6 0.93 TEBN_014 12.00 11.00 12.00 11.00 11.74 965.0 4 0.67 TEBN_030 14.00 14.00 15.00 15.00 14.60 53.0 2 0.04 TSBN_001 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 40.0 1 0.03 TSBN_007 10.00 10.00 10.50 10.00 10.22 72.0 3 0.05 TSBN_014 11.00 10.50 12.50 10.50 11.33 1,139.0 6 0.79 TSBN_030 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 15.0 1 0.01 UTMK_007 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 3,000.1 6 2.08 UTMK_030 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 1,500.1 3 1.04 VITAb5_030 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 160.0 1 0.11 ----------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- --------- ------ ------ TOTAL 144,368.6 741 100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo on direct deals with GS - 0.7% of the market --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Repo rate, % APR Term of ----------------------------------------- Volume, Num- Market repo, on first mini- maxi- on last weighted m. ber of share, days deal mum mum deal average KZT deals % ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ 0 33.3 1 0.34 2 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 218.6 8 2.24 3 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 135.0 4 1.39 5 8.50 5.00 8.50 5.00 7.27 778.6 10 7.99 6 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 101.0 1 1.04 7 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 1,023.4 1 10.51 8 6.00 5.44 6.00 5.44 5.99 4,671.6 6 47.96 10 6.39 6.39 6.39 6.39 6.39 38.0 1 0.39 17 8.01 8.01 8.01 8.01 8.01 20.0 1 0.21 21 8.00 8.00 10.51 8.00 10.32 119.5 5 1.23 30 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 35.5 1 0.36 31 9.50 7.01 11.00 7.01 8.43 1,486.0 11 15.26 32 9.50 9.50 11.00 11.00 10.29 110.1 2 1.13 34 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 333.0 4 3.42 125 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 637.5 6 6.54 ------- -------- ----- ----- ------- -------- ------- ------ ------ TOTAL 9,741.2 62 100 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- [2008-02-06]