ANALYSIS: In January 2008, shares market of KASE looked somewhat better than in December

/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, Ruslan Dzyubaylo, February 6, 08/ - In January 2008 1,711 deals were registered with shares in all sectors, including deals, made on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT26,393.9 m. or $219.3 m. at the current exchange rate on dates, on which deals were made. The specified amount makes 68.0% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in December - 54.1%) and 1.1% of the entire month exchange turnover (1.5%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in January 2008 and December 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: --------- ----------- Trend January, December, January 2008 Indicator 2008 2007 to December 2007 ------------------------------------------ --------- ----------- ---------------- Trades volume, th. USD 219,239.3 393,711.3 -44.3,% Trades volume, m KZT 26,393.9 47,518.5 -44.5,% Including on offerings, th. USD - - Х including on offerings, m. KZT - - Х including on STF RFCA, th. USD - - Х including on STF RFCA, m. KZT - - Х Number of deals 1,711 1,511 +13.2,% Number of instruments, involved in deals 39 46 -15.2,% Average day number of deals 86 84 +2.0,% Average day volume of deals, th. USD 10,973.4 21,872.8 -49.8,% Stake of nego deals (number), % 1.4 4.6 -3.2 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % 10.2 13.3 -3.1 pp Part of pension assets, % on gross 3.2 2.3 +0.9 pp Part of physical entities, % on gross 16.3 18.5 -2.3 pp Part of non-residents entities, % on gross 7.5 33.6 -26.1 pp Number of exchange's members, 42 46 -8.7,% who made deals Market concentration, %* 51.9 38.5 +13.4 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) By the results of January, on London stock exchange, GDR prices of common shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC fell by 13.4% (+14.3% in December), KAZAKHMYS PLС - by 11.2 % (+1.7 %). GDR of Halyk saving bank of Kazakhstan JSC grew by 13.9% (-13.1%), and GDR of Kazkommertsbank JSC - by 7.9% (+13.7%), GDR of Alliance Bank JSV - by 3.8% (-18.0%). Overall, by the results of January, the growth of weighted average day prices was shown by 38% of share denominations involved in deals (31% in December), 45% (53%) of shares showed reduction, 18% (16%) - unchanged trend. The next shares demonstrated the maximal trends as of month's results: KANT grew by 225.6 %, HSBKp fell in price by 25.4%. Despite of the relative low activity during January, stocks market looked fairly positive, which is seen by the dynamics of KASE index that has increased by 11.7% since the beginning of year. From the stand point of technical analysis, the index achieved to lock in at the level of 2,600 points and to shift the horizontal consolidation channel up by 100 points to 2,500-2,700 points. The growth of stocks market was happening against the background of global concerns regarding the U.S. economy, which was proved the whole month by the coming statistical data. Particularly, it became known that the U.S. GDP grew only by 0.6% in the fourth quarter against the forecasted 1.2%. In case if in the first quarter of 2008 another decrease in the growth rate of economy is observed, it would be possible to talk about the recession of the American economy as a matter of fact. As a result, in the response to the wild reaction of markets on January 21 ( the Monday, named by the journalists "black" with a reference on the black Monday on October 19, 1987), the Federal Reserve System (the U.S. FRS) had to decrease the prime rate twice: on January 22 by 75 b.p. (which turned to be a complete surprise for the market) and on January 30 by 50 b.p. The big probability of recession of the American and consequently global economy caused decrease in forecasts of the main resources consumption, which has led to their reduction of prices. For example, Brent Forties oil cheapened by 2.2% over the month down to $92.23 per barrel (during January the oil price for this brand fell to $87.71 per barrel). The talks about an imposture of a state duty on oil export have also deteriorated the situation for the Kazakhstani oil-producing companies. Thus, for the shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC (RDGZ) that influence in the greatest way the capitalization of the domestic market and also for the KASE index, a decrease by 10.7% was registered. The message about repayment of the first tranche of the syndicated loan to the sum of $700 m. by Kazkommertsbank, together with a considerable oversold character of Kazakhstani bonds and stirring up on the market of mergers and acquisitions in the Kazakhstani banking system have led to decreased of yield to maturity on all Eurobonds of Kazakhstani organizations. Prices on shares in Kazakhstan that react keenly to the trends on foreign markets of debt liabilities from recent time have reacted by the movements in different directions. Common shares of Kazkommertsbank JSC (KKGB) that used to be greatly oversold earlier rejoiced with 13% growth, and so did common shares of Temirbank JSC (TEBN) that increased by almost 18%. In contrast to them, the shares of Halyk Savings bank of Kazakhstan JSC fell by 4.6 % and those of Bank TuranAlem - "- "3.4 %. IRBIS analysts forecast a smooth continuation of growth of stocks market in February on KASE with short-term downward corrections. Traders who have been considerably tired of the last five negative months will react keenly to every positive news. The main point for growth will be the banking sector of the country that will go up following the growth of Eurobonds on foreign markets, and also waiting for new news about mergers and acquisitions. Shares of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC will continue being traded at the same level due to uncertainty over imposed state duties from one side, and the message about an increase in the explored stocks of the company from another one. Below are given the tables, characterizing the shares market of KASE in the analyzed month more fully. Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in January 2008 (end of month, change over the month) --------------------------------------------------------- Shares: Instruments Issuers: Category of ------ ----- ------ ----- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 45 0 45 0 31 0 B 46 +1 46 +1 40 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 91 +1 91 +1 70 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 5 0 5 0 5 0 A+B+N 96 +1 96 +1 75 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 21 0 21 0 14 0 A+B+C+N 96 +1 117 +1 76 +1 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE; "А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE, including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with, which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance and of payment completion. Changes of KASE index for different periods at the moment of trades' closing on January 31, 2008 (basis actual/365) ---------------------------------------------- Change: ------------ Period % % APR -------------------------------- ----- ----- For previous 30 days -0.4 -4.8 For the last 365 days (year) +3.5 +3.5 For year 2006 +12.2 +12.2 Since the beginning of year 2005 +11.7 +5.6 ---------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in January of year 2008 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE Index th. USD m. KZT --------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- --------- December 29, 07 53,830.7 2,637.02 38,870.5 4,676.1 53 January 3, 08 53,957.9 2,640.15 1,196.3 144.0 28 January 4, 08 53,652.6 2,600.12 76,350.3 9,204.0 74 January 8, 08 53,577.4 2,587.90 5,507.2 664.4 67 January 9, 08 55,240.1 2,624.95 2,323.3 280.3 56 January 10, 08 55,348.1 2,640.19 10,830.6 1,306.0 114 January 11, 08 55,921.4 2,676.91 6,526.7 786.3 91 January 14, 08 55,606.5 2,680.48 1,886.8 227.3 55 January 15, 08 56,451.8 2,740.60 2,066.2 248.8 95 January 16, 08 55,286.7 2,675.15 3,281.9 394.6 124 January 17, 08 54,500.1 2,650.86 7,874.7 945.4 55 January 18, 08 52,946.2 2,609.12 1,682.6 202.3 70 January 21, 08 52,591.7 2,607.29 3,338.9 402.3 76 January 22, 08 51,751.9 2,518.01 15,320.6 1,844.0 97 January 23, 08 52,139.4 2,582.24 6,373.6 766.5 71 January 24, 08 52,584.2 2,591.71 56,019.7 6,734.7 96 January 25, 08 52,618.4 2,610.51 1,775.8 213.3 77 January 28, 08 52,301.6 2,596.34 3,255.7 391.3 100 January 29, 08 53,383.2 2,611.59 3,528.1 424.3 122 January 30, 08 52,646.8 2,599.54 5,190.2 624.0 147 January 31, 08 52,415.2 2,625.54 4,910.0 590.2 96 --------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- --------- Trend -1,415.5 -11.48 % -2.6 -0.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Results of trades in shares on KASE in January 2008 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Price, tenge per share: ------------------------------------------------ on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num- ------------- ------------------ of deals, ber Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------- ------- ------- ------- ----- --------- -------- --------- ----- ASBN 20,000 22,700 22,700 -9.2 14,000 69,000 81.8 6 ASBNp1 12,000 12,000 12,000 -14.3 10,610 25,000 22.5 1 ASFI 15,000 15,000 15,000 0 8,100 15,000 400.0 8 ATFB 8,727 9,700 8,727 -12.7 8,100 14,000 138.7 8 ATFBp 4,818 5,200 4,818 -12.4 3,000 6,500 128.7 6 ATFBp8 5,600 5,700 5,600 -1.8 1,566 8,999 62.2 3 BTAS 69,100 80,000 76,800 -3.4 850 157,275 37,117.0 102 CCBN 1,311 1,720 1,631 +18.2 1,000 2,050 14,210.1 270 CSBN 5,550 6,000 6,000 -1.6 4,500 8,000 189.7 13 DNBN 3,600 3,960 3,795 +5.4 1,400 6,728 3,482.7 24 EXBNp 1,900 1,900 1,900 0 1,100 2,200 11.0 1 GB_KZMS 2,640 3,200 2,915 -9.0 2,640 3,700 274.3 19 HSBK 450 515 501 -4.6 402 781 1,691.2 84 HSBKp 296 296 296 -0.7 290 334 29.1 1 HSBKp1 305 336 336 +8.2 249 353 261.5 22 KANT 770 2,971 2,971 , 770 2,971 75,904.9 15 KIBN 340 340 340 0 110 1,150 46.6 4 KKGB 705 890 890 +12.9 600 1,550 12,895.3 477 KKGBp 340 360 360 +2.3 190 499 2,433.5 55 KZIS 61,000 61,000 61,000 , 33,000 75,000 17.7 1 KZTCp 2,250 2,400 2,250 -6.3 1,044 8,750 49.9 6 KZTK 32,500 37,100 32,500 -11.7 32,500 55,000 1,031.0 47 KZTKp 18,000 21,300 18,500 -11.9 12,380 27,100 461.7 13 LNAT 8,700 8,700 8,700 0 1,649 9,999 3.6 1 MMGZp 13,000 15,600 15,500 +19.2 7,000 16,050 1,619.1 44 NFBN 4,500 4,800 4,600 +2.1 2,530 7,623 627.2 32 NRBN 20,000 20,010 20,000 -0.3 17,500 54,050 141.7 8 NRBNp6 13,000 13,000 13,000 +4.8 12,400 27,800 17.1 1 ORDB 4,000 4,000 4,000 , 2,807 4,600 87.4 3 PDES 976 976 976 0 920 1,096 334.8 1 RAHT 3,000 4,200 4,200 +20.0 1,000 4,200 20.0 4 RDGZ 18,051 24,595 18,890 -10.7 13,000 24,595 13,472.3 332 SUMB 300,000 302,000 302,000 +0.7 270,000 302,000 1,669.3 2 TEBN 7,000 7,200 7,200 +2.9 4,450 9,000 24,372.2 6 TEBNp 2,400 2,500 2,400 -2.8 1,114 3,200 2,445.8 26 TSBN 1,800 2,250 1,800 -18.2 1,800 4,550 940.5 36 TSBNp 1,150 1,200 1,150 -6.5 1,150 2,415 49.1 2 UTMK 27,000 27,000 27,000 , 27,000 28,750 58.4 2 ZERD 4 4 4 -9.2 3 5 8.7 1 ------- ------- ------- ------- ----- --------- -------- --------- ----- 39 196,808.7 1 687 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (December 1-29, 2007). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. Top-10 of the most liquid listing shares of KASE in January 2008, including STF RFCA --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Base of liquidity indicator calculation (Kl): ------------------------------------ Position Liqui Volume Number Number Position in January Share dity of deals number of KASE of in 2008 symbol indica KZT, of deals mem bers result August, tor(Kl) mln days 2007 ---------- ------ ------- -------- -------- -------- ------ -------- 1 KKGB 2.6 1,551.5 477 74 20 2 2 RDGZ 2.0 1,621.3 332 55 20 1 3 CCBN 1.8 1,709.8 270 48 19 3 4 BTAS 1.3 4,463.0 102 29 18 4 5 HSBK 1.1 203.5 84 35 17 5 6 KZTK 1.0 124.0 47 28 19 7 7 KKGBp 0.8 292.7 55 18 17 8 8 KANT 0.7 9,150.4 15 7 3 - 9 TSBN 0.6 113.2 36 17 12 14 10 MMGZp 0.5 194.7 44 9 11 15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: for calculation of Kl are used only data on deals, which were made in the sector of KASE's secondary market by one of methods of open trades. Description of methods of calculation of the given indicator is available in corresponding chapter of the document, published at http://www.kase.kz/mix/rsp.pdf in Russian language and at http://www.kase.kz/eng/mix/rsp.pdf in English language. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of January 31, 08: as of December 29, 07: Change: --------------------- ---------------------- ---------------- Company's code or name po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- on KASE (the same si- taliza- of the si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, code is used for ti- tion, compa- ti- tion, compa- tion, % common share) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points ---------------------- --- -------- ------ ---- -------- ------ -------- ------ KAZAKHMYS PLС 1 11,203.3 21.37 2 12,308.7 22.87 -1,105.4 -1.49 EP Kazmunaygas 2 11,001.9 20.99 1 12,439.1 23.11 -1,437.2 -2.12 Bank TuranAlem 3 5,095.8 9.72 3 4,642.4 8.62 +453.4 +1.10 Kazkommertsbank 4 4,585.1 8.75 5 4,081.1 7.58 +504.0 +1.17 Halyk bank 5 4,387.9 8.37 4 4,262.5 7.92 +125.4 +0.45 Kazakhtelecom 6 3,015.2 5.75 6 3,368.5 6.26 -353.3 -0.51 ATFBank 7 2,024.9 3.86 8 2,252.1 4.18 -227.3 -0.32 Alliance Bank 8 1,832.5 3.50 7 2,049.4 3.81 -216.8 -0.31 Bank CenterCredit 9 1,773.5 3.38 9 1,445.7 2.69 +327.8 +0.70 Temirbank 10 1,241.1 2.37 10 1,211.4 2.25 +29.7 +0.12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of January 31, 2008 was $52,415.2 m. There were 94 shares of 70 issuers in official securities list of KASE. A full list of codes of issuers with the names of companies is published at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm [2008-02-06]