ANALYSIS: In December 2007 GS market was relatively calm

/IRBIS, Ruslan Dzyubaylo, January 11, 08/ - In December of 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) in GS purchase and sale sector 90 deals for a total of KZT54,815.9 m. are registered (equivalent to 454.1 m. US dollar), which amounted 1.8% of the total exchange turnover of the month (in November - 0.8%). Relative to November of 2007, the turnover of the sector increased by 74.0% in tenge and by 74.0% in dollar terms; relative to December 2006, it decreased by 75.3% in tenge and by 73.9% dollar terms. In sector of primary market the Finance ministry conducted two auctions to offer MEKAM. On December 12, by specialized trades method was conducted the auction for offering of governmental short-term discount treasury liabilities of Ministry of finance MEKKAM-6 of the 181th issue (KZK1KM061816, MKM006_0181; KZT100; December 12, 07 - June 12, 08, annual/ actual). Bond's price was a subject of trade. Initially, it was planned to raise KZT10,000.00 m. 13 primary dealers participated in trades; they submitted 38 limit bids. Total volume of those bids (volume of demand) totaled KZT36,120.1 m. (379.4% of the offered volume of bonds). Yield at demand varied 8.2999% APR to 12.0001%APR, having totaled in weighted average terms 10.1026%APR. By results of trades, the issuer made cut-off at the price of demand at 95.7000 % (8.9864%APR) and satisfied bids for purchases for 137,359,833 bonds to the sum of KZT13,184,443,909.42, which exceeded the planned floatation volume by 37.4%. 51.0% of total volume of offered bonds was purchase by STB, 49.0% - by STB clients. On December 26, by specialized trades method was conducted the auction for offering of governmental short-term discount treasury liabilities of Ministry of finance MEKKAM-9 of the 9th issue (KZK1KM090096, MKM009_0009; KZT100; December 26, 07 - September 26, 08, annual/ actual). Bond's price was a subject of trade. Initially, it was planned to raise KZT20,000.00 m. ten primary dealers participated in trades; they submitted 31 limit bids. Total volume of those bids (volume of demand) totaled KZT68,614.1 m. (368.4% of the offered volume of bonds). Yield at demand varied 8.4952% APR to 12.0000%APR, having totaled in weighted average terms 9.8358 APR. By results of trades, the issuer made cut-off at the price of demand at 93.7292 % (8.9042% APR) and satisfied bids for purchases of 72,833,333 bonds to the sum of KZT6,828,278,533.75, which made 36.4% of the planned floatation volume. 40.5% of total volume of offered bonds was purchase by STB, 59.5% - by STB clients. In December, secondary GS market sector has slightly reanimated after a significant decrease of activity in November and October. Increase in volumes of the secondary market happed against the background of relatively stable primary market, turnover of which totaled about KZT20 bn. in December. The main part of the turnover fell at the sale of short term note of the National Bank by some banks several days prior to their maturity. The toughened competition among some participants of the market, aimed at taking the leading place in total gross turnover of GS market in 2007, also had its influence on the growth of activity. Statistic indicators of Kazakhstan GS purchase and sale sector in December and the structure of the secondary market turnover are given in the table (in parentheses - comparable indicators of previous month). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer,% year. Maturity ------------------------------------- Volume, m. term, last weighted tenge in Number days min max deal average market price of deals ------------- ------ ------ ------ ------------- ---------------- -------- Discount GS (KZT): notes of National bank, MEKKAM - 66.2% (73.3%) of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 8 7.00 10.01 10.01 7.52 ( -) 12,418.0 12 15 - 28 4.00 10.50 4.00 7.00 (4.00) 9,629.2 8 92 - 181 8.00 9.04 9.04 8.02 ( -) 986.0 2 ------------- ------ ------ ------ ------------- ---------------- -------- Subtotal 23033.2(5321.4) 22(7) ------------- ------ ------ ------ ------------- ---------------- -------- Coupon GS (KZT): МЕОКАМ, MUIKAM, MEIKAM - 33.8% (26.7%) of the market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- less than 730 5.00 13.58 6.43 6.52 (8.53) 2,638.0 13 731 - 1095 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 (6.49) 100.0 2 1096 - 1460 6.52 6.52 6.52 6.52 (6.50) 7,873.0 4 1826 - 2190 12.57 18.62 18.62 13.36 (11.77) 1,158.8 11 ------------- ------ ------ ------ ------------- ---------------- -------- Subtotal 11769.9(1934.7) 30(31) ------------- ------ ------ ------ ------------- ---------------- -------- TOTAL 34803.1(34803.1) 38(52) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Exchange turnover share in total volume of purchase and sale deals of Kazakhstan GS secondary market in December totaled to 99.5% (in November no deals were made). [2008-01-11]