ANALYSIS: In December 2007 the corporate bonds market on KASE has somewhat livened up

/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, Andrey Tsalyuk, January 10, 08/ - In December 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 231 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT40,353.4 m. or USD334.2 m. at the current rate, effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 45.9% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in November 2007 - 11.8%) and 1.3% of the entire monthly exchange turnover (1.1%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in December and November of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ---------- --------- Trend December December 2007 2007 November compared to Indicator 2007 November 2007 ------------------------------------------- ---------- --------- ------------- Trades volume, th., USD 334,189.3 336,503.8 -0.7,% Trades volume, m., KZT 40,353.4 40,626.4 -0.7,% including, on offerings, th. USD 63,774.7 27,197.0 +134.5,% including, on offerings, m. KZT 7,695.1 3,290.8 +133.8,% including, on STF RFCA, th. USD - 53.1 Х including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT - 6.4 Х Number of deals 231 351 -34.2,% Average daily number of deals 6 8 -19.6,% Average daily volume of deals, th. USD 9,283.0 7,647.8 +21.4,% Number of instruments, involved in deals 81 85 -4.7,% Stake of nego deals (number), % 2 - Х Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0.1 - Х Participation of pension assets, % gross 21.4 10.1 +11.4 pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 3.2 26.8 -23.6 pp Participation of non-residents, % gross 1.6 - Х Number of exchange's members, 39.0 38.0 +2.6,% who made deals Market concentration, %* 68.4 82.4 -14.0 pp --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) The data, given in the table, witness the fact that bond market turnover has slightly changed in comparison with the results of previous month, decreased totaled only 0.7%. At the same time, average daily turnover increased by 21.4% (due to a smaller number of trading days than in November). That allows talking about some market's stirring up in the reported period. In December, a remarkable event at first glance took place on KASE. On December 19, Kazkommertsbank JSC floated its subordinated 10-year bonds to the sum of KZT7,695.00 m. (about $ 64 m.), which was the first banking bond issue on the domestic market after August of 2007. Yield to maturity of bonds was determined at the level of 11.50% APR, which corresponds to the yield to maturity of 10-year non-subordinated Eurobonds of the bank abroad. However, the offering has shown that banks should not expect a mass demand in that segment. Most probably, local debt instrument offer segment will be used by big financial institutions to diversify their refinancing risks among daughter and affiliated in other ways structures, as far as possible. By results of December, bond market was able to even its positions relative to shares market turnover. At that, the leader has not changes. The greatest volume of deals with corporate bonds on KASE fell at BTASb7 (45.4 % of monthly turnover of the secondary market). As before, the mentioned deals had "internal" character, that is, one member of KASE operated with different sub-accounts of its clients. Price background of exchange market of corporate bonds in December looked in the next way: of 81 denominations of bonds, involved in deals on the secondary market, debt instruments of 56 denominations were traded with discount, 19 - with premium, 6 - at face value. The bonds CCBNb3 looked the most re-purchased, their weighted average price made 120.3 %. Bonds BTAIb5 looked the most re-sold (17.4%). We remind that in November, deals were conducted with bonds of 85 denominations, debt instruments of 74 denominations were traded with discount, 10 - with premium, 1 - at face value. The bonds KZIKb8 looked the most re-purchased, their weighted average price made 115.9 %. Bonds KZIKb4 that were traded at 41.8%, looked the most re-sold. When analyzing the given data, it should be noted that both in November and December, correcting deals to eliminate known errors of trader of PAIMO Bailyk asset management JSC were conducted on KASE, as a result of which prices of some bonds looked unreasonably low. The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in December decreased to 94.8% from 90.4% in November. Over the month the yield to maturity on concluded deals increased for buyers of 34 corporate bonds, and decreased for 43 corporate bonds. There was nothing to compare with the yield of 4 securities. In November the corresponding indicators showed 55, 27 and 1. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in December, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in December 2007 --------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Instruments Issuers: Category of ------ ----- ------ ----- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 202 0 202 0 62 0 B 28 +2 28 +2 28 +2 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 230 +2 230 +2 89 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 57 +3 57 +3 21 +3 A+B+C 230 +2 287 +5 90 +1 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in December 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT ---------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Nov 30, 07 14,805.4 8.89 215.77 130.06 21,955.3 2,652.6 Dec 3, 07 14,701.9 8.82 216.77 130.60 2,940.1 355.3 Dec 4, 07 14,692.7 8.88 216.25 130.27 14,376.9 1,737.7 Dec 5, 07 14,707.8 8.84 216.70 130.53 1,054.3 127.4 Dec 6, 07 14,715.5 8.83 216.91 130.66 13,728.3 1,657.1 Dec 7, 07 14,739.9 8.82 217.35 130.78 214.8 25.9 Dec 10, 07 14,740.5 8.82 217.65 131.01 436.0 52.7 Dec 11, 07 14,781.7 8.87 217.11 130.60 40,115.5 4,842.3 Dec 12, 07 14,830.9 8.31 221.17 133.58 64,941.3 7,838.4 Dec 13, 07 14,828.9 8.88 218.87 132.41 1,416.3 171.1 Dec 14, 07 14,831.4 8.87 219.07 132.50 56.5 6.8 Dec 19, 07 14,814.4 8.86 219.42 132.63 68,068.4 8,213.1 Dec 21, 07 14,525.5 9.08 218.55 132.01 2,121.6 256.2 Dec 24, 07 14,448.5 8.92 219.37 132.30 630.0 76.1 Dec 25, 07 14,449.1 8.87 220.84 133.76 9,282.6 1,121.7 Dec 26, 07 14,324.5 9.41 218.67 132.21 73,995.3 8,949.0 Dec 27, 07 14,234.6 10.29 215.13 129.68 15,496.8 1,875.0 Dec 28, 07 14,802.6 8.38 228.11 138.62 8,948.4 1,078.7 Dec 29, 07 14,867.6 8.57 227.60 137.75 16,366.2 1,968.9 ---------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +62.2 -0.32 +11.8 +7.7 % +0.4 -3.6 +5.5 +5.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in December 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: Code ----- ------ ----------------- ------------- Volume for on the last deal: last 365 days of bond ------- -------- ----- ------ of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals ------- ----- ------ ------- -------- ----- ------ --------- -------- AGKKb1 11.00 13.00 13.00 +2.0 9.00 13.00 298.5 2 ASAVb2 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 9.00 11.00 20.3 1 ASBNb1 26.00 26.00 26.00 +0.4 10.00 111.04 627.8 2 ASBNb6 17.50 18.00 18.00 +2.0 8.70 18.00 16.7 2 ASBNb7 8.00 8.00 8.00 -0.5 8.00 11.00 8.7 1 ASBNb8 13.50 13.50 13.50 +4.5 9.00 13.50 8,124.3 1 ASFIb12 9.70 9.70 9.70 , 8.43 9.90 16.2 1 ASFIb3 6.00 9.00 6.00 -5.9 6.00 11.93 227.9 2 ASFIb4 13.00 13.00 13.00 0 9.48 15.50 431.7 2 ASFIb5 13.62 14.50 14.50 +0.5 8.83 15.50 144.3 5 ASFIb6 14.00 14.00 14.00 +2.0 9.50 15.50 16.6 1 ASFIb9 11.50 13.00 13.00 +0.4 7.50 15.50 406.4 5 ATFBb4 10.00 12.00 12.00 +3.0 7.00 12.00 88.0 2 ATFBb5 11.50 11.50 11.50 0 8.15 11.50 4,704.7 5 ATFBb6 6.21 8.50 8.50 -1.0 6.21 9.49 8,178.6 3 BTAIb3 12.70 12.93 12.93 -0.1 9.50 13.00 3,273.3 2 BTAIb4 13.00 16.00 16.00 +2.7 8.30 106.15 1,306.0 7 BTAIb5 15.90 101.34 101.34 +85.3 8.30 101.34 3.4 2 BTAIb6 14.50 15.50 14.61 +0.6 10.00 15.50 412.6 4 BTASb1 13.15 13.43 13.43 +0.3 9.00 13.43 4,676.8 3 BTASb2 13.90 13.90 13.90 0 9.50 13.90 276.2 1 BTASb3 11.80 12.50 12.50 +1.6 9.50 47.77 1,264.6 3 BTASb4 12.00 47.47 47.47 +36.3 7.00 47.47 366.3 5 BTASb7 6.73 13.50 7.00 0 6.73 13.50 161,058.5 17 CCBNb10 7.50 7.50 7.50 , 7.50 9.00 75.5 1 CCBNb11 7.50 7.50 7.50 , 7.50 8.50 135.0 1 CCBNb12 7.50 10.00 7.50 , 7.00 10.00 4,215.1 2 CCBNb14 7.50 7.50 7.50 , 7.50 9.20 40.7 1 CCBNb2 14.00 17.00 15.10 +2.1 10.00 106.23 1,499.8 7 CCBNb3 9.00 11.00 11.00 0 8.58 11.00 392.3 5 CCBNb4 7.50 7.50 7.50 , 7.50 11.82 208.5 1 CCBNb6 7.50 7.50 7.50 -5.5 7.50 13.00 182.4 1 CCBNb7 7.50 7.50 7.50 , 7.50 10.39 119.9 1 CCBNb9 7.50 7.50 7.50 -3.5 7.50 11.00 194.7 1 CSBNb2 11.22 11.22 11.22 -2.5 9.48 15.22 3,742.5 2 CSBNb3 10.00 10.00 10.00 -0.5 9.30 12.00 2,991.3 2 CSBNb6 10.20 11.25 11.25 -0.8 9.00 13.25 172.7 5 DTJLb1 7.00 9.97 7.00 , 7.00 9.97 5,300.2 6 EUBNb1 8.00 8.00 8.00 , 8.00 8.00 4,111.8 1 EUBNb3 9.50 9.50 9.50 , 8.20 9.70 1,769.6 1 EXBNb1 9.45 9.45 9.45 , 9.11 14.00 830.9 1 HSBKb3 10.01 14.00 10.01 -3.0 6.92 93.00 5,444.9 5 HSBKb4 10.00 10.00 10.00 , 9.00 10.00 17.8 1 HSBKb8 9.50 9.50 9.50 , 7.70 9.50 110.2 1 KAFIb1 7.76 7.76 7.76 -2.2 6.75 10.00 1,280.1 1 KARMb2 9.00 9.00 9.00 , 7.50 9.00 1,297.9 1 KASTb2 10.94 10.94 10.94 +0.7 8.40 10.94 780.7 1 KATRb1 11.45 11.45 11.45 , 10.83 13.00 101.5 1 KIBNb3 13.00 13.00 13.00 -1.0 13.00 14.00 18.3 1 KKAGb2 7.50 7.50 7.50 -0.5 7.50 9.30 18.9 1 KKGBb5 6.90 7.74 7.74 , 6.90 7.74 742.9 2 KKGBb6 11.09 11.09 11.09 , 11.09 11.09 45.8 1 KSMKb2 11.00 11.00 11.00 , 11.00 11.00 1,570.2 1 KZASb2 8.69 8.69 8.69 0 8.00 8.90 11.8 1 KZIKb3 13.00 13.00 13.00 , 7.88 13.00 141.0 1 KZIKb4 13.00 101.09 101.09 0 8.37 101.09 592.4 2 KZIKb5 13.00 14.00 14.00 , 8.00 14.00 38.5 3 KZIKb7 14.23 16.90 14.23 -2.7 7.00 16.90 321.6 6 KZIKb8 8.28 9.28 9.28 +1.0 7.00 12.70 3,961.2 2 KZPSb1 8.80 15.00 8.80 +0.8 6.50 73.00 943.3 6 LOGCb1 10.30 10.30 10.30 , 10.30 10.30 2,505.5 2 MREKb2 14.00 16.00 14.00 -2.0 9.05 16.00 41.6 2 NFBNb1 9.51 13.99 13.99 0 9.51 14.00 4,573.4 6 NRBNb2 9.00 9.00 9.00 -7.4 9.00 19.50 70.2 1 NRBNb4 9.00 19.10 9.00 -6.5 8.20 19.10 556.9 6 NRBNb5 7.00 12.00 12.00 0 7.00 13.00 1,815.0 4 ORDBb2 12.51 12.54 12.51 0 11.50 13.50 3,332.8 3 ORDKb1 11.99 12.01 11.99 0 11.99 13.00 138.0 5 ORNKb1 14.02 14.02 14.02 , 6.35 15.99 7.8 1 RGBRb3 9.83 10.00 10.00 +0.1 8.10 12.00 7,680.4 7 RGBRb4 12.00 13.00 13.00 , 8.00 15.00 72.2 6 RGBRb6 12.00 14.00 12.00 , 12.00 14.00 482.5 6 TEBNb16 8.00 12.00 8.00 , 7.99 12.00 1,542.9 3 TEBNb2 16.87 17.00 17.00 0 6.00 17.00 314.2 5 TEBNb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 -1.4 9.00 14.02 20.0 1 TSBNb4 9.02 11.00 9.02 , 8.50 12.00 2,523.1 2 TSBNb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 , 8.00 10.20 820.2 1 TSSMb1 12.10 14.00 12.10 +0.6 9.07 14.00 971.7 2 TXBNb2 11.50 11.50 11.50 -0.5 8.76 13.50 70.0 3 VITAb4 15.00 15.00 15.00 +0.5 10.00 16.00 64.1 1 VITAb5 15.00 15.00 15.00 +2.0 9.40 16.82 3,240.2 2 ------- ----- ------ ------- -------- ----- ------ --------- -------- 81 270,212.7 225 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - November 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2008-01-10]