ANALYSIS: As of January 1 of 2008 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT1,083.0 bn. or $9.0 bn.

/IRBIS, Raushan Tundybayeva, Ruslan Dzyubaylo, January 9, 08/ - As of January 1 of 2008, the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,083.0 bn., or $9,002.6 m. at the rate of KZT120.30 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which had been fixed for the period from October to December of 2007 inclusive, on MEUJKAM and MUIKAM - from January 2007 till December 2007 inclusive. Within December 1-31 of 2007 the total debt in tenge equivalent decreased by KZT40.5 bn. (-3.6%), in dollar equivalent (taking into account change in exchange rate of the National Bank) by 292.5 m. (-3.1%) (taking into account change of exchange rate of the National Bank). Similar indicators of debt change in November of 2007 were plus KZT49.3 bn. (+4.6%) or plus $405.5 m. (+4.6%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt Change ------------------------------------ as of for the *Currency of December 31, 07 as of period -------------- ------------------- November 30, 07 ---------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 235.203 21.7 287.288 -52,085.0 -18.1 ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 844.993 78.0 833.380 +11,612.2 +1.4 incl. face KZT KZT 515.011 47.6 519.944 -4,933.5 -0.9 value incl. KZT KZT 329.982 30.5 313.436 +16,545.7 +5.3 servicing ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------------- --------- ----- Akimat of USD KZT 2.817 0.3 2.824 -7.5 -0.3 Atyrau obl. incl. face USD KZT 2.702 0.2 2.709 -7.2 -0.3 value incl. USD KZT 0.115 0.01 0.115 -0.3 -0.3 servicing ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------------- --------- ----- TOTAL 1,083.012 100.0 1,123.492 -40,480.3 -3.6 incl. face 752.915 69.5 809.941 -57,025.7 -7.0 value incl. 330.097 30.5 313.552 +16,545.4 +5.3 servicing ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of December 31, 07 were calculated at the rate of KZT120.30 per a dollar, as of November 30, 07 - at KZT120.87. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics turned out with exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt Change ---------------------------------- as of for the *Currency of December 31, 07 as of period -------------- ----------------- November 30, 07 ----------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- --------------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 1,955.1 21.7 2,376.8 -421,697.5 -17.7 ------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- --------------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 7,024.0 78.0 6,894.8 +129,195.9 +1.9 incl. face KZT KZT 4,281.1 47.6 4,301.7 -20,628.1 -0.5 value incl. KZT KZT 2,743.0 30.5 2,593.2 +149,823.9 +5.8 servicing ------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- --------------- ---------- ----- Akimat of USD KZT 23.41 0.3 23.37 +48.6 +0.2 Atyrau obl. incl. face USD KZT 22.5 0.2 22.4 +46.6 +0.2 value incl. USD KZT 1.0 0.01 1.0 +2.0 +0.2 servicing TOTAL 9,002.6 100.0 9,295.0 -292,453.0 -3.1 incl. face 6,258.6 69.5 6,700.9 -442,278.9 -6.6 value incl. 2,743.9 30.5 2,594.1 +149,825.9 +5.8 servicing ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in December 2007 by amounts of offering was KZT142,890.4 m. (in November - KZT93,902.7 m.). At that, the issuer paid off or redeemed his notes on secondary market for a total sum of KZT195,663.6 m. (KZT99,770.3 m.). Thus in December the net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was minus KZT52,773.3 m. Corresponding index in November was minus KZT5,867.6 ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In December, the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT20,012.6 m. (in November - 18,877.4 m.) and paid face values of bonds and coupon payments for a total of KZT30,376.9 m. (in November - KZT1,812.8 m.). December net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT10,364.4 m. (in November - plus KZT22,428.7 m.). Total November net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers including municipal bodies was estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT16,446.3 m. Similar indicator of October - minus KZT109,094.0 m. It is worth noting that despite of negative balance, the sum of state debt of Ministry of finance as of January 1 grew. Apparently, it is related to indexation of already issued indexed on inflation rate securities, and also with increase of percent rate on GS primary market. The cause in both cases was an increased inflation and some pliability of Ministry of finance while offering its debt instruments, stipulated by the need in financing of republican budget in the end of the year. Thus, along with the decrease in face value of state debt by KZT4,933.0 bn. its service cost that reflects the sum of all upcoming coupon payments grew by KZT16,546.0 bn. (at that no issue of long-term treasury bonds that could increase significantly the sum of service cost was not made in December). We remind that annual consumer price index for year 2007 (December of 2007 to December of 2006) made 18.8%. In December, total balance of net-borrowing of all Kazakhstani issuers of GS was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT63,137.6 m. Similar indicator in November was plus KZT16,446.3 m. Agency IRBIS draws attention of subscribers and mass media that the data given below are not official statistics and received by result of analysis of information, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central depositary of securities JSC (Almaty). [2008-01-09]