ANALYSIS: In November 2007 the corporate bonds market on KASE was still low-liquid

19.12.07 14:55
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, December 19, 07/ - In November 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 351 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT40,626.4 m. or USD336.5 m. at the current rate, effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 11.8% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in October 2007 - 43.3%) and 1.1% of monthly exchange turnover (1.2%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in November and October of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: -------------------- Trend November October 2007 2007 October compared to Indicator 2007 September 2007 ------------------------------------------- ---------- --------- -------------- Trades volume, th., USD 336,503.8 329,083.8 +2.3 Trades volume, m., KZT 40,626.4 39,766.1 +2.2 including, on offerings, th. USD 27,197.0 33,233.5 -18.2 including, on offerings, m. KZT 3,290.8 4,015.3 -18.0 including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 53.1 5,830.5 -99.1 including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 6.4 705.1 -99.1 Number of deals 351 352 -0.3 Average daily number of deals 8 8 0 Average daily volume of deals, th. USD 7,647.8 7,479.2 +2.3 Number of instruments, 85 113 -24.8 involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 0 2.6 -2.6 Stake of nego deals (volume), % 0 1.12 -1.12 Participation of pension assets, % gross 10.1 24.2 -14.2 Participation of physical entities, % gross 26.8 18.0 +8.8 Number of exchange's members, 38 39 -2.6 who made deals Market concentration, %* 82.4 74.3 +8.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- * it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) After recession of activity in October by 51.0% in November had stopped - the market even managed to grow slightly by 2.3%. The highest volume of trades came on November 15 - 40.2% from monthly turnover of secondary market, from which (continuing tradition of September and October) 91.6% come on deals with BTASb7. Mentioned deals still were carrying the "internal" character. However, in total the tendency of market still had demonstrated the low liquidity and permanent fall of prices. Price background of exchange market of corporate bonds in September looked in following way. From 85 names of bonds, involved into deals on secondary market, 74 debt instruments were traded with discount, 10 - with premium, 1 - at face value. Most re-purchased seemed KZIKb8, average weighted net price of which made 115.9%, re-sold were KZIKb4 (41.8%). In October deals on secondary market were made with bonds of 113 titles, 86 titles of securities were traded with discount, 24 with premium, 3 - at face value. Most re-purchased seemed KRZHb1, average weighted net price of which made 110.26 %, most re-sold were ASFIb9 (65.57%). The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in November decreased to 90.4% from 95.3% in October. For month the yield to maturity on concluded deals increased for buyers of 55 corporate bonds, and decreased for 27 corporate bonds. There was nothing to compare with the yield of 1 title of securities. In October the corresponding indicators showed 73, 30 and 6. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in November, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in November 2007 --------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Instruments: Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 202 +2 202 +2 62 -1 B 26 +2 26 +2 26 +2 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 228 +4 228 +4 88 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 54 +2 54 +2 18 +2 A+B+C 228 +4 282 +6 88 +1 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in November 2007 --------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT --------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Oct 31,07 14,762.4 8.92 211.39 127.70 10,748.1 1,299.3 Nov 1, 07 14,760.2 8.63 214.13 129.64 73.0 8.8 Nov 2, 07 14,757.3 8.68 213.63 129.22 27,725.0 3,354.7 Nov 5, 07 14,797.0 8.70 213.56 129.05 1,108.1 134.1 Nov 6, 07 14,848.1 8.72 213.72 129.10 2,050.3 247.9 Nov 7, 07 14,844.9 8.68 214.16 129.45 144.1 17.4 Nov 8, 07 14,849.7 8.30 216.10 130.68 1,792.2 216.2 Nov 9, 07 14,837.0 8.41 215.24 129.87 69,660.2 8,410.1 Nov 12,07 14,840.4 8.75 214.23 129.19 4,356.5 525.7 Nov 13,07 14,644.2 8.97 212.86 128.26 8,824.3 1,064.4 Nov 14,07 14,643.6 8.81 215.01 130.08 3,514.6 424.0 Nov 15,07 14,821.1 8.35 217.83 131.97 135,436.5 16,345.8 Nov 16,07 14,822.4 8.78 215.73 130.52 7,573.5 913.8 Nov 19,07 14,821.6 8.41 217.73 131.73 17,329.8 2,091.2 Nov 20,07 14,826.6 8.42 217.66 131.64 715.4 86.3 Nov 21,07 14,849.6 8.83 215.79 130.38 287.9 34.7 Nov 22,07 14,860.1 8.85 215.67 130.23 2,551.1 307.0 Nov 23,07 14,844.2 8.84 215.89 130.27 643.4 77.4 Nov 26,07 14,856.2 8.83 216.16 130.44 732.4 88.2 Nov 27,07 14,843.3 8.82 216.30 130.53 5,444.9 656.6 Nov 28,07 14,830.7 8.83 216.29 130.49 19,155.9 2,313.1 Nov 29,07 14,825.8 8.85 216.19 130.35 5,429.3 656.2 Nov 30,07 14,805.4 8.89 215.77 130.06 21,955.3 2,652.6 --------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +42.9 -0.03 +4.4 +2.4 % +0.3 -0.4 +2.1 +1.9 --------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in November 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: -------------------------------------------- for Code on the last deal: last 365 days Volume of bond ----------------- ------------- of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals --------- ----- ------ ------- --------- ------ ------ --------- -------- AGKKb1 11.00 13.00 11.00 10.00 13.00 181.4 2 aKZIKb10 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 16.6 1 aKZIKb9 8.00 9.73 9.73 8.00 9.73 36.5 2 ASAVb2 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.00 11.00 20.2 1 ASBNb1 15.00 111.04 25.61 +11.1 9.00 111.04 2,481.8 16 ASBNb6 16.00 16.00 16.00 +2.0 8.49 16.00 15.6 1 ASBNb7 8.50 10.69 8.50 0 8.50 11.00 11,086.9 3 ASBNb8 9.00 9.00 9.00 -0.5 9.00 13.50 2,953.4 1 ASELb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 0 13.00 13.00 330.6 1 ASFIb10 9.12 9.12 9.12 8.00 9.12 492.6 1 ASFIb3 11.93 11.93 11.93 +2.9 8.10 11.93 13.8 1 ASFIb4 11.00 15.00 13.00 -2.0 9.48 15.50 142.6 9 ASFIb5 13.00 14.00 14.00 -1.5 8.83 15.50 37.3 4 ASFIb6 12.00 14.00 12.00 -3.0 9.50 15.50 48.9 3 ASFIb7 11.00 11.00 11.00 -4.0 8.50 15.00 15.7 1 ASFIb8 9.00 15.00 9.52 -6.0 8.10 15.50 268.2 6 ASFIb9 9.00 15.00 12.55 -2.9 7.50 15.50 735.0 8 ATFBb3 7.51 7.51 7.51 -1.5 6.10 9.00 47.8 1 ATFBb4 8.50 9.00 9.00 +0.5 7.00 10.00 37.3 3 ATFBb5 11.50 11.50 11.50 0 8.15 11.50 262.8 2 ATFBb6 9.49 9.49 9.49 +1.9 7.60 9.49 1,387.6 3 BTAIb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 0 8.20 10.00 78.6 3 BTAIb10 14.00 14.00 14.00 7.99 14.00 4,137.0 1 BTAIb2 13.00 13.00 13.00 +1.9 10.30 13.00 15.5 1 BTAIb3 13.00 13.00 13.00 9.50 13.00 1,894.7 1 BTAIb4 12.83 106.15 13.30 +2.0 8.30 106.15 1,772.5 9 BTAIb5 13.00 101.34 16.00 +6.8 8.30 101.34 838.5 12 BTAIb6 13.00 14.00 14.00 +3.0 10.00 15.50 85.2 3 BTAIb8 13.00 13.00 13.00 +1.0 9.50 13.00 14.0 1 BTASb1 13.00 13.15 13.15 +0.2 9.00 13.15 2,528.4 2 BTASb2 13.00 13.90 13.90 +1.4 8.50 13.90 288.8 2 BTASb3 10.90 10.90 10.90 -0.1 9.50 11.00 15.4 1 BTASb4 11.20 11.20 11.20 -0.8 7.00 12.00 912.7 6 BTASb7 7.00 8.60 7.00 0 7.00 8.60 214,590.6 21 CCBNb17 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 12.00 12.00 1,713.6 1 CCBNb2 12.50 106.23 13.00 10.00 106.23 233.1 4 CCBNb3 11.00 11.00 11.00 8.50 11.00 29.5 2 CCBNb6 13.00 13.00 13.00 +4.5 8.50 13.00 12.9 1 CCBNb9 11.00 11.00 11.00 +2.5 8.50 11.00 15.1 1 CSBNb2 10.10 15.22 13.72 +3.6 9.48 15.22 350.9 7 CSBNb3 10.00 12.00 10.50 +0.5 9.30 12.00 145.2 7 CSBNb4 10.50 11.00 10.99 +0.5 9.70 11.00 1,055.9 8 CSBNb5 10.00 10.00 10.00 0 9.10 10.00 16.2 1 CSBNb6 9.45 13.25 12.00 +0.8 9.00 13.25 694.8 8 EUBNb4 12.00 12.20 12.20 +0.2 12.00 12.50 5,792.7 2 HSBKb3 10.20 93.00 13.00 +3.0 6.92 93.00 1,153.0 6 KAFIb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 +1.0 8.20 10.00 2,102.8 9 KASTb2 10.20 10.20 10.20 8.40 10.70 465.8 1 KAZIb2 11.00 13.50 11.00 -1.0 10.10 13.50 38.0 6 KIBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 0 13.94 14.00 21,758.7 17 KKAGb1 12.30 13.80 13.80 11.00 13.80 73.9 2 KKAGb2 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 9.30 45.5 3 KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.00 8.90 27.2 1 KZIKb10 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 5.50 11.00 14.2 1 KZIKb11 13.00 13.00 13.00 +1.0 8.00 13.00 11.3 1 KZIKb12 13.00 13.00 13.00 +1.0 7.50 13.00 11.2 1 KZIKb16 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 3,985.6 1 KZIKb4 11.40 101.09 101.09 +89.7 8.37 101.09 43.7 3 KZIKb7 16.90 16.90 16.90 7.00 16.90 77.3 1 KZIKb8 7.00 8.30 8.30 -4.4 7.00 12.70 261.2 2 KZIKb9 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 6.00 9.00 15.7 1 KZNHb2 12.00 16.00 14.50 +2.4 9.85 16.00 1,454.6 7 KZPSb1 6.50 73.00 8.00 -0.6 6.50 73.00 1,652.5 16 KZTCb1 13.49 13.49 13.49 +0.1 8.32 13.50 443.2 1 MREKb2 11.00 16.00 16.00 9.05 16.00 97.1 3 NFBNb1 13.99 13.99 13.99 +2.0 10.17 14.00 598.3 1 NRBNb2 14.50 19.50 16.40 -2.6 8.20 19.50 80.1 9 NRBNb4 15.49 15.50 15.50 +2.8 8.20 19.10 308.3 3 NRBNb5 12.00 13.00 12.00 8.30 13.00 3,638.8 3 ORDBb2 12.46 12.46 12.46 +0.3 10.00 13.50 166.7 1 ORDKb1 11.99 12.00 11.99 0 11.99 13.00 365.2 3 RGBRb3 9.85 12.00 9.85 -1.2 8.10 12.00 7,461.9 3 TEBNb2 16.00 17.00 17.00 +11.0 6.00 17.00 145.5 11 TEBNb3 10.45 10.45 10.45 -3.6 9.00 14.02 19.0 1 TEBNb5 9.50 9.50 9.50 0 8.50 9.50 32.7 2 TEBNb6 9.50 9.50 9.50 0 9.00 9.50 47.0 3 TSBNb2 10.74 12.00 12.00 +0.1 10.00 12.00 1,779.4 4 TSBNb3 11.03 11.50 11.03 9.00 12.00 106.8 3 TSBNb5 10.00 12.00 10.00 -1.0 10.00 12.00 47.6 3 TSSMb1 11.49 11.49 11.49 +0.8 8.88 11.49 108.5 1 TXBNb2 11.50 13.50 12.00 +0.5 8.76 13.50 1,088.6 10 TXBNb3 9.00 11.00 9.50 +0.5 7.00 11.00 312.7 8 US_MER_e1 8.00 8.13 8.13 7.32 8.13 82.4 4 VITAb4 12.00 14.50 14.50 -0.5 9.20 16.00 69.1 4 VITAb5 13.00 16.82 13.00 -1.9 9.40 16.82 1,271.4 12 --------- ----- ------ ------- --------- ------ ------ --------- -------- 85 309,306.8 347 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - October 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2007-12-19]