ANALYSIS: As of November 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT1,074.2 bn. or $8.9 bn.

/IRBIS, Zaure Yessimova, November 16, 07/ - As of November 1 of 2007, the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,074.2 bn., or $8,889.5 m. at the rate of KZT120.84 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which had been fixed for the period from August to October of 2007 inclusive, on MEUJKAM and MUIKAM - from November 2006 till October 2007 inclusive. Within October 1-30 of 2007 the total debt in tenge equivalent increased by KZT45.4 bn. (+4.4%), in dollar equivalent by 384.0 m. (+4.5%) (taking into account change of exchange rate of the National Bank). Similar indicators of debt change in August of 2007 were minus KZT281.4 bn. (-21.5%) or minus $1,872.4 m. (-18.0%). Following table contains detailed information. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt Change ---------------------------- as of as of for the *Currency of October 31, 07 September period 31, 07 ------------- ------------------ --------- --------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 290,620 27,1 331,827 -41 207,2 -12,4 ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ----- Ministry of Finance 780.649 72.7 694.058 +86,590.3 +12.5 incl. face KZT KZT 502.396 46.8 478.473 +23,923.2 +5.0 value incl. KZT KZT 278.253 25.9 215.586 +62,667.1 +29.1 servicing ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ----- Akimat of USD KZT 2.938 0.3 2.941 -2.9 -0.1 Atyrau obl. incl. face USD KZT 2.708 0.3 2.711 -2.7 -0.1 value incl. USD KZT 0.230 0.02 0.230 -0.2 -0.1 servicing ------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- --------- --------- ----- TOTAL 1,074.207 100.0 1,028.827 +45,380.2 +4.4 incl. face 795.724 74.1 813.011 -17,286.7 -2.1 value incl. 278.483 25.9 215.816 +62,666.9 +29.0 servicing ------------------------------------------------------------------------ * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of October 31, 07 were calculated at the rate of KZT120.84 per a dollar, as of September 30, 07 - at KZT120.96. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics turned out with exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Amount and structure of debt Change --------------------------------- as of as of for the *Currency of October 31, 07 September 30, 07 period ------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,405.0 27.1 2,743.3 -338,282.3 -12.3 ------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------------- ---------- ----- Ministry of Finance 6,460.2 72.7 5,737.9 +722,267.9 +12.6 incl. face KZT KZT 4,157.5 46.8 3,955.6 +201,902.3 +5.1 value incl. KZT KZT 2,302.7 25.9 1,782.3 +520,365.6 +29.2 servicing ------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------------- ---------- ----- Akimat of USD KZT 24.32 0.3 24.32 0 0 Atyrau obl. incl. face USD KZT 22.4 0.3 22.4 0 0 value incl. USD KZT 1.9 0.02 1.9 0 0 servicing TOTAL 8,889.5 100.0 8,505.5 +383,985.6 +4.5 incl. face 6,584.9 74.1 6,721.3 -136,380.0 -2.0 value incl. 2,304.6 25.9 1,784.2 +520,365.6 +29.2 servicing ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in October 2007 by amounts of offering was KZT89,221.0 m. (in September - KZT112,128.6 m.). At that, the issuer paid off or redeemed his notes on secondary market for a total sum of KZT212,204.4 m. (KZT492,430.4 m.). Thus in October the net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was minus KZT125,208.4 m. Corresponding index in September was minus KZT380,301.8 ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). In October, the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT18,866.8 m. (in September - KZT28,998.0 m.) and paid face values of bonds and coupon payments for a total of KZT2,752.4 m. (in September - KZT1,330.2 m.). September net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT16,114.4 m. (in September - plus KZT27,,667.8 m.). Total October net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers including municipal bodies was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT109,094.0 m. Similar indicator of September - minus KZT352,633.9 m. Agency IRBIS draws attention of subscribers and mass media that the data given below are not official statistics and received by result of analysis of information, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central depositary of securities JSC (Almaty). [2007-11-16]