/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, November 8, 07/ - In October 2007 2,413 deals
were registered with shares in all sectors, including deals, made on the
special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on
Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT52,141.2 m. or $431.5
m. at the current exchange rate on dates, on which deals were made.
The specified amount makes 56.7% of the month turnover of the market of
corporate securities on KASE (in September - 23.5%) and 1.6% of the entire
month exchange turnover (0.7%).
Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in October and September of year
2007
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Month:
----------------------- Trend
October 2007 September October 2007
Indicator 2007 to September 2007
---------------------------------------- ------------ --------- -----------------
Trades volume, th. USD 431,525.7 206,721.6 +108.7%
Trades volume, m KZT 52,141.2 25,218.1 +106.8%
Including on offerings, th. USD - - Х
including on offerings, m. KZT - - Х
including on STF RFCA, th. USD 17,839.1 36,956.5 -51.7%
including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 2,156.3 4,491.1 -52.0%
Number of deals 2,413 1,369 +76.3%
Number of instruments, involved in deals 53 50 +6.0%
Average day number of deals 110 65 +68.2%
Average day volume of deals, th. USD 19,614.8 9,843.9 +99.3%
Stake of nego deals (number), % 3.6 5.0 -1.3 pp
Stake of nego deals (volume), % 6.2 11.3 -5.1 pp
Part of pension assets, % on gross 13.0 20.5 -7.5 pp
Part of physical entities, % on gross 18.3 18.6 -0.4 pp
Number of exchange's members, 54 50 +8.0%
who made deals
Market concentration, %* 58.5 59.2 -0.7 pp
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered
by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share
denominations, included in traded lists of KASE)
After two-month "pique", the situation on shares market gradually evens out
in October - total volume of trades increased twice over the month. During
October the development dynamics was flat enough despite of some events
of the beginning of the month that gave something to talk about pessimistic
thinking. For domestic companies, October started relatively tensely against
the background of decrease of credit ratings of the Republic of Kazakhstan
from S&P down to "ВВВ-" and data of the National Bank on reduction of
deposit base of banking sector and inflation growth. However, after certain
fall at the beginning of the month, the market closed in October at quite
positive indicators.
The given dynamics is fully illustrated by KASE index as it is shown below.
The strongest fall came on October 4 ( by 7.3% in comparison with the value
of the previous month) that was fast corrected during the following days.
Overall by the results of month, KASE index has formed with positive trend.
In the analyzed month, price parameters of the common stocks of Halyk
saving bank of Kazakhstan JSC, Bank TuranAlem JSC and Exploration
Production KazMunayGas JSC grew on KASE by 44.3%, 14.9% and 9.7%
respectively. Common shares of Kazkommertsbank JSC and
Kazakhtelecom JSC decreased in their prices by 24.4% and 2.5%. The
leader of falling became the common shares of Alliance Bank JSC that have
decreased since the beginning of the month by 72.5% to KZT17,000.01 per
share.
The main fall on foreign markets have been experienced by Kazakhstani
banks that, in principal, meet the apprehensions of investors that were
related to banking and construction sectors. By the results of October, on
London stock exchange, GDR prices for the common shares of Halyk saving
bank of Kazakhstan JSC decreased by 7.6%, the ones of Kazkommertsbank
JSC fell by 10.4%, those of Alliance Bank JSC - by 15.4%.
In the given range, the most remarkable is falling of equity instrument of
Kazkommertsbank JSC and Alliance Bank JSC. Regarding to the first issuer,
here Moody's agency brought troubles by putting for reconsideration with
negative outlook all ratings of the bank (excluding the rating on deposits in
foreign currency) on October 4. Moody's analysts were put on their guard by
a too rapid growth of bank's assets - by 24.5% in the first half-year and high
concentration of their credit portfolio, 25% of which account on loans to the
companies in construction sector. As a result, shares quotations of the
banks lost about 13% on global markets during three days.
In the situation with Alliance Bank JSC, decrease in the value of shares is
related, first of al, to information about reduction of deposit base of bank by
$225 m. that, in consequence, was compensated by the capital of a bank's
shareholder. Inaccurately interpreted information of possible change in credit
covenants has also negatively affected the stock quotations of this bank.
Against the background of decrease in quotations of banking sector, stable
growth was demonstrated by equity securities of: Exploration Production
KazMunayGas JSC (+8.5%) and KAZAKHMYS PLС company (5.5%). The
given rise follows the concept of actual development of international raw
material markets where there is deficit of demand almost for all main
commodities' groups. Over October of 2007, the prices for oil increased on
average by 15.8%, by far exceeding the psychological benchmark of $90 per
barrel of oil. Although the speculative moments play not the last role in the
sharp growth of oil prices, the pointed tendency has rather objective basis -
such factors can be included to the pricing group as growing tense in the
Near-Eastern region because of Turkish-Kurdish problem, reduction in the
global commercial stocks of oil and the situation on mortgage market of the
U.S. that acquires permanent character. According to the annual report of
International energy agency, the probability of continuation of this dynamics
remains in the short term.
In the situation with KAZAKHMYS PLС, the message about diversification of
company's assets through the acquisition of 18.8%-stake in Eurasian Natural
Resources Corporation PLC has played its role. Moreover, the traditional
high level of demand for the company's products remains. Despite of certain
decrease in copper prices during the reported period, a sharp increase is
forecasted for copper prices in the last quarter of the current year and for the
beginning of 2008. Sufficiently low commercial stocks of the "red metal" on
the three biggest exchanges, deficit of large-scale copper extracting projects
and problems with manufacturing results of a number of middle companies
create a suitable ground for a further growth of prices for copper against the
background of copper consumption in China, India and Brazil.
Overall, by the results of October, the growth of weighted average day prices
was shown by 37% of share denominations involved in deals, 46% of shares
showed reduction, 15% - unchanged trend, prices of 2% of share
denominations had nothing to be compared with. The corresponding
indicators of September are: 42%, 52%, 6%. The next shares demonstrated
the maximal trends as of month's results: LNAT grew by 463.5%, ZNGRp fell
in price by 87.1%.
Below are given the tables, characterizing the shares market of KASE in the
analyzed month more fully.
Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE,
in October 2007 (end of month, change over the month)
---------------------------------------------------------
Shares: Issuers:
------------- Instruments -------------
Category of ------ ----- ------ -----
admission number trend number trend number trend
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A 46 0 46 0 31 0
B 48 +1 48 +1 40 +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
A+B 94 +1 94 +1 71 +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
N 5 0 5 0 5 0
A+B+N 99 +1 99 +1 76 +1
------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ -----
C (STF RFCA) 18 0 18 0 10 0
A+B+C+N 98 +1 117 +1 76 +1
---------------------------------------------------------
Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE;
"C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the
regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE;
"А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE,
including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a
security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with,
which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance
and of payment completion.
Changes of KASE index for different periods
at the moment of trades' closing on October 31, 2007 (basis actual/365)
-------------------------------------------------------
Change:
--------------
Period % % APR
--------------------------------------- ------ ------
For previous 30 days +3.7 +41.3
Since the beginning of the current year +9.2 +11.1
(since January 1, 07)
For the last 365 days (year) +49.4 +49.4
For year 2006 +274.1 +274.1
Since the beginning of year 2005 +308.5 +168.6
-------------------------------------------------------
Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in October of
year 2007
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of
pitalization, deals, deals, deals
Data m. USD KASE Index th. USD m. KZT
---------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
September 28, 07 57,711.06 2,545.79 18,775.0 2,271.0 104
October 1, 07 57,650.18 2,560.72 467.3 56.5 33
October 2, 07 59,242.78 2,681.17 15,212.6 1,840.4 99
October 3, 07 56,013.14 2,612.81 5,098.4 616.8 102
October 4, 07 54,302.18 2,422.47 5,919.9 716.2 157
October 5, 07 54,131.49 2,443.75 14,481.8 1,751.4 107
October 8, 07 54,871.63 2,453.19 24,655.9 2,980.9 163
October 9, 07 54,419.17 2,446.88 8,572.5 1,036.8 129
October 10, 07 55,726.42 2,550.66 37,997.8 4,596.2 62
October 11, 07 55,670.41 2,546.62 33,703.0 4,075.7 107
October 12, 07 56,412.85 2,631.79 46,460.4 5,613.4 209
October 15, 07 57,943.24 2,665.42 13,850.3 1,671.2 108
October 16, 07 57,999.20 2,624.99 11,631.4 1,404.4 143
October 17, 07 57,948.28 2,625.35 5,431.0 656.0 46
October 18, 07 57,882.57 2,630.13 7,083.6 855.3 82
October 19, 07 57,698.37 2,613.95 5,403.3 651.4 99
October 22, 07 55,919.26 2,539.61 20,817.5 2,512.9 116
October 23, 07 55,971.00 2,569.02 72,096.1 8,706.3 55
October 24, 07 56,037.70 2,535.52 48,803.4 5,894.0 130
October 28, 07 56,728.75 2,581.99 3,842.3 464.1 57
October 29, 07 56,860.29 2,613.37 19,308.6 2,332.1 94
October 30, 07 56,291.78 2,616.56 13,150.0 1,589.0 155
October 31, 07 56,938.76 2,640.83 17,538.7 2,120.3 160
---------------- ------------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------
Trend -772.3 +95.0
% -1.3 +3.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Results of trades in shares
on KASE in October 2007 in purchase and sales sector (including nego
deals)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price, tenge per share:
---------------------------------------------------------- Volume Num-
on last deal for last 365 days:
---------------- -------------------- of deals, ber
Shares trend th. de-
code min. max. price % min. max. USD als
------- --------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- -----
aASND 55,000.00 55,000.00 55,000.00 5,060.00 55,000.00 11.4 2
aATFBp 3,350.00 4,000.00 3,801.00 3,350.00 5,750.00 59.3 3
aHSBKp1 322.00 350.00 350.00 300.00 350.00 8,265.9 3
ALKZ 1,500.00 1,600.00 1,500.00 -11.8 1,400.00 3,500.01 141.8 4
ASBN 14,000.00 64,000.00 17,000.01 -73.6 11,100.00 69,000.00 612.5 26
ASBNp1 11,200.00 19,000.00 13,100.00 +11.0 10,000.00 25,000.00 3,825.7 18
ASFI 9,700.00 10,500.00 9,700.00 -7.6 8,100.00 14,000.00 48.7 3
ASFIp 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 0 4,001.00 11,500.00 8,183.2 2
aTEBNp 2,521.75 2,700.00 2,700.00 +3.9 1,500.00 2,702.50 9,502.6 2
ATFB 8,800.00 10,150.00 9,150.00 -11.6 7,500.00 14,000.00 996.7 26
ATFBp 3,220.00 5,500.00 4,100.00 +2.5 2,800.00 6,500.00 2,585.6 42
ATFBp8 4,000.00 6,500.00 5,300.00 +29.3 1,500.00 8,999.00 122,720.9 248
BTAS 850.01 116,000.00 100,000.00 -7.4 850.01 157,275.00 14,858.5 212
CCBN 1,000.00 1,595.00 1,493.00 +0.9 1,000.00 2,050.00 33,968.4 331
CSBN 5,300.00 6,100.00 6,100.00 0 3,383.00 8,000.00 278.4 23
CSBNp 2,175.00 2,175.00 2,175.00 0 700.01 3,505.00 22.7 1
DNBN 3,105.00 3,220.00 3,220.00 +7.7 1,400.00 6,727.50 45.4 4
EXBN 2,900.00 2,900.00 2,900.00 2,000.00 3,700.00 1.8 2
EXBNp 1,920.00 2,100.00 2,000.00 0 1,100.00 2,200.00 205.6 17
GB_KZMS 3,400.00 3,700.00 3,500.00 +12.9 3,047.50 3,700.00 529.3 12
HSBK 540.00 619.00 615.00 +53.0 280.00 781.00 2,065.9 49
HSBKp 290.00 333.50 333.50 +7.6 290.00 333.50 2,566.4 3
HSBKp1 290.00 322.00 295.00 0 200.00 345.00 627.5 30
KIBN 110.00 350.00 320.00 -18.0 110.00 1,150.00 147.4 13
KKGB 650.00 969.99 800.00 -5.9 650.00 1,550.00 18,043.0 427
KKGBp 271.00 354.00 346.00 +15.3 190.00 499.00 29,889.4 204
KMSO 49,282.00 49,282.00 49,282.00 49,282.00 49,282.00 132.5 4
KZTC 21,600.00 21,600.00 21,600.00 -3.6 11,100.00 48,000.00 1.8 1
KZTCp 2,600.00 3,105.00 2,700.00 -15.6 1,044.00 8,750.00 92.1 8
KZTK 38,000.01 44,000.00 38,002.00 -9.5 28,000.00 55,000.00 1,568.6 44
KZTKp 14,500.00 19,999.00 15,500.00 -10.4 8,950.00 27,100.00 523.6 35
LNAT 5,000.00 9,999.00 9,999.00 1,649.44 9,999.00 228.8 13
NFBN 4,350.00 5,176.15 5,176.15 +1.5 2,012.50 7,622.50 2,825.8 25
NRBN 17,500.00 25,000.00 22,000.00 -23.2 17,500.00 62,250.00 267.3 12
NRBNp6 12,650.00 12,650.00 12,650.00 12,650.00 40,000.00 16.5 1
ORDB 4,000.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 0 2,807.17 4,600.00 22.8 1
PDES 920.00 1,042.00 920.00 0 843.03 1,100.00 1,017.3 2
RAHT 3,000.00 3,500.00 3,400.00 1,000.00 4,000.00 54.7 3
RDGZ 15,600.00 18,200.00 17,500.55 +5.4 11,300.00 18,600.00 75,890.8 339
RMXR 2.50 2.50 2.50 +66.7 1.00 4.95 93.1 2
SHMO 2,715.00 2,715.00 2,715.00 2,715.00 2,715.00 48,611.7 1
TEBN 6,500.01 7,509.60 7,500.00 0 3,550.00 9,000.00 1,356.4 18
TEBNp 2,347.83 2,900.00 2,500.00 0 1,100.00 3,300.00 4,295.3 54
TSBN 2,600.00 3,157.59 2,660.00 -11.3 1,510.00 4,550.00 6,098.6 40
TSBNp 1,800.00 1,800.00 1,800.00 -14.3 1,300.00 2,415.00 20.8 1
UTMK 27,000.00 27,000.00 27,000.00 0 25,000.00 28,750.00 264.2 11
UTMKp 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 1,500.00 15,000.00 530.0 1
ZERD 3.97 3.97 3.97 +3.1 1.50 4.50 107.6 1
ZNGRp 1,292.74 1,292.74 1,292.74 450.00 10,000.00 517.1 1
------- --------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- -----
49 404,741.4 2 325
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were
made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last
deal of the previous month (September 1-31, 2007). If there were no deals last
month, trend is not calculated.
Top-10
of the most liquid listing shares of KASE in October 2007, including STF RFCA
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base of liquidity
indicator calculation (Kl):
------------------------------------
Position Liqui Volume Number Number Position
in October Share dity of deals number of KASE of in
2007 symbol indica KZT, of deals mem bers result August,
tor(Kl) mln days 2007
---------- ------ ------- -------- -------- -------- ------ --------
1 KKGB 2.6 2,180.9 427 66 22 1
2 RDGZ 2.4 9,167.5 339 55 22 2
3 CCBN 2.1 4,102.3 331 44 22 4
4 ATFBp8 1.9 14,833.5 248 21 20 23
5 BTAS 1.6 1,795.3 212 38 20 3
6 KKGBp 1.5 3,610.9 204 32 17 5
7 HSBK 0.9 249.8 49 30 13 6
8 HSBKp1 0.724 75.8 30 10 22 8
9 KZTK 0.723 189.4 44 18 15 10
10 TSBN 0.6 737.4 40 17 12 17
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes to the table: for calculation of Kl are used only data on deals, which were
made in the sector of KASE's secondary market by one of methods of open trades.
Description of methods of calculation of the given indicator is available in
corresponding chapter of the document, published at
http://www.kase.kz/mix/rsp.pdf
in Russian language and at
http://www.kase.kz/eng/mix/rsp.pdf in English
language.
10-top most capitalized companies of KASE
whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange
(to the moment of trades closing by specified dates)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of October 31, 07: as of September 28, 07: Change:
--------------------- ----------------------- ----------------
Company code po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi-
on KASE (the same si- taliza- of the si- taliza- of the taliza- stake,
code is used for ti- tion, compa- ti- tion, compa- tion, %
common share) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points
----------------- --- -------- ------ ---- --------- ------ -------- ------
GB_KZMS 1 13,608.4 23.90 1 12,046.2 20.87 +1,562.2 +3.03
RDGZ 2 10,433.5 18.32 2 9,636.8 16.70 +796.7 +1.63
BTAS 3 6,034.5 10.60 3 6,559.1 11.37 -524.7 -0.77
HSBK 4 5,282.7 9.28 4 3,529.4 6.12 +1,753.3 +3.16
KKGB 5 4,161.3 7.31 5 4,350.5 7.54 -189.2 -0.23
KZTK 6 3,753.0 6.59 6 3,850.3 6.67 -97.3 -0.08
ATFB 7 2,055.3 3.61 7 2,073.4 3.59 -18.2 +0.02
CCBN 8 1,583.3 2.78 8 1,406.8 2.44 +176.6 +0.34
ASBN 9 1,398.6 2.46 9 5,178.1 8.97 -3,779.5 -6.52
TEBN 10 1,285.5 2.26 10 1,198.8 2.08 +86.7 +0.18
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of
market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of
shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This
indicator at the session closing as of October 31, 2007 was $56,939.2 m. There
were 94 shares of 70 issuers in official securities list of KASE. A full list of
codes of issuers with the names of companies is published at
http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm
[2007-11-08]