ANALYSIS: In October 2007 the corporate bonds market on KASE remained less-liquid

08.11.07 21:15
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, November 8, 07/ - In October 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 352 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT39,766.1 m. or USD329.1 m. at the current rate, effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 43.3% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in September 2007 - 76.5%) and 1.2% of monthly exchange turnover (3.1%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in October and September of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Month: ------------------- Trend October October 2007 2007 September compared to Indicator 2007 September 2007 ------------------------------------------- --------- --------- -------------- Trades volume, th., USD 329,083.8 671,786.0 -51.0 Trades volume, m., KZT 39,766.1 81,877.5 -51.4 including, on offerings, th. USD 33,233.5 0 X including, on offerings, m. KZT 4,015.3 0 X including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 5,830.5 49,307.8 -88.2 including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 705.1 6,006.7 -88.3 Number of deals 352 402 -12.4 Number of instruments, 16 19 -16.4 involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 14,958.4 31,989.8 -53.2 Stake of nego deals (volume), % 113 113 0 Participation of pension assets, % gross 2.6 0.2 +2.3 pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 1.12 0.02 +1.1 pp Number of exchange's members, 24.2 11.0 +13.2 pp who made deals Market concentration, %* 18.0 1.5 +16.5 pp ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) The participants did not manage to support in October the semblance of activity on corporate bonds market, observed in September 2007. In the analyzed month the market return to usual state, decreasing by 51.0% in dollar equivalent (51.4% in tenge). As a whole situation in given segment was enough even, though the same as in September may be distinguished internal deals with BTASb7, to which came 26.9 % from total turnover of exchange's market in October. Market was still characterized by low liquidity of instruments and gradual slipping of prices downward. Price background of exchange market of corporate bonds in September looked in following way. From 113 names of bonds, involved into deals on secondary market, 86 debt instruments were traded with discount, 24 - with premium, 3 - at face value. Most re-purchased seemed KRZHb1, average weighted net price of which made 110.26%, re-sold were ASFIb9 (65.57 %). In September deals on secondary market were made with bonds of 113 titles, 84 titles of securities were traded with discount, 29 with premium. Most re-purchased seemed MREKb4, average weighted net price of which made 110.88 %, most re-sold were ASFIb9 (76.23 %). The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in October decreased to 95.29% from 96.13% in September. For month the yield to maturity on concluded deals increased for buyers of 73 corporate bonds, and decreased for 30 corporate bonds. There was nothing to compare with the yield of 6 securities. In September the corresponding indicators showed 78, 29 and 5. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in October, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in October 2007 --------------------------------------------------- Category of Bonds: Instruments Issuers: admission ------------ ------------ number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 200 0 200 0 B 24 0 24 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 224 0 224 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 52 0 52 0 A+B+C 224 0 276 0 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in October 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT ---------------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- September 28, 07 14,883.8 8.23 213.90 130.69 7,665.3 927.2 October1,07 14,863.3 8.22 214.28 130.84 2,058.4 249.0 October 2,07 14,850.1 8.24 214.16 130.76 10,331.7 1,249.9 October 3,07 14,844.3 8.24 214.29 130.78 29,591.2 3,579.9 October 4, 07 14,833.1 8.25 214.12 130.70 11,598.8 1,403.2 October 5, 07 14,831.6 8.25 214.30 130.72 12,687.0 1,534.4 October 8, 07 14,816.1 8.33 214.17 130.26 6,703.0 810.4 October 9, 07 14,896.6 8.29 214.17 130.54 6,134.4 741.9 October 10, 07 14,813.0 8.29 214.33 130.52 2,653.3 320.9 October 11, 07 14,815.6 8.26 214.54 130.71 32.0 3.9 October 12, 07 14,789.2 8.31 214.05 130.34 65,539.8 7,918.5 October 15, 07 14,795.6 8.29 214.84 130.64 576.7 69.6 October 16, 07 14,762.3 8.35 214.65 130.43 2,818.2 340.3 October 17, 07 14,751.5 8.34 214.39 130.43 3,449.5 416.6 October 18, 07 14,745.5 8.36 214.34 130.39 2,687.5 324.5 October 19, 07 14,775.4 8.41 213.82 129.99 4,133.7 498.3 October 22, 07 14,766.9 7.97 216.88 131.94 31,609.5 3,815.6 October 23, 07 14,759.3 8.38 214.75 130.48 1,325.0 160.0 October 24, 07 14,744.4 8.45 214.05 129.94 3,255.4 393.2 October 28, 07 14,744.5 8.03 216.93 131.66 46,075.8 5,565.0 October 29, 07 14,743.4 8.48 214.36 129.94 3,643.4 440.0 October 30, 07 14,767.9 8.27 214.83 130.08 69,819.9 8,437.0 October 31, 07 14,762.4 8.92 211.39 127.70 8,660.7 1,047.0 ---------------- -------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend -121.4 +0.7 -2.5 -3.0 % -0.8 +8.4 -1.2 -2.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in October 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ----------------------------------------------------------------- Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: -------------------------------------- on for last Code the last deal: 365 days Volume of bond -------------- ----------- of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- aASFIb4 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.4 1 aASFIb6 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 14.6 1 aASFIb7 11.80 11.80 11.80 11.80 11.80 15.0 1 aBTTRb1 9.08 9.08 9.08 9.08 9.08 5,786.5 1 ASBNb1 10.50 16.20 14.50 +0.80 9.00 16.20 128.5 6 ASBNb3 10.11 12.10 11.50 +0.90 8.03 12.10 97.2 3 ASBNb4 10.00 10.00 10.00 -3.50 8.30 18.20 26.3 1 ASBNb5 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 13.00 102.5 1 ASBNb6 9.50 14.50 14.00 +3.00 8.49 14.50 288.9 5 ASBNb7 8.50 8.50 8.50 0 8.50 11.00 37.9 1 ASBNb8 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.70 40.9 1 ASELb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 135.5 3 ASFIb12 8.43 9.90 9.70 +0.70 8.43 9.90 5,157.1 7 ASFIb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 +0.40 8.10 11.93 14.1 1 ASFIb4 12.00 15.50 15.00 +5.52 9.48 15.50 86.0 6 ASFIb5 13.00 15.50 15.50 +2.50 8.83 15.50 74.8 5 ASFIb6 11.50 15.50 15.00 +4.00 9.50 15.50 87.1 6 ASFIb7 15.00 15.00 15.00 +4.00 8.50 15.00 12.8 1 ASFIb8 9.10 15.50 15.50 +7.40 8.10 15.50 59.4 4 ASFIb9 12.00 15.50 15.50 +3.50 7.50 15.50 58.7 5 ASNDb1 10.26 10.26 10.26 -1.65 8.90 11.91 22,075.0 2 ATFBb3 8.99 9.00 9.00 +0.05 6.10 9.00 54.5 4 ATFBb4 7.50 10.00 8.50 -0.15 7.00 10.00 57.2 7 ATFBb5 11.50 11.50 11.50 0 8.15 11.50 14.5 1 ATFBb6 7.60 7.60 7.60 0 7.60 9.00 535.2 1 BGSTb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 1,507.8 1 BIGRb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.00 11.50 5,056.8 2 BTAIb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 0 8.20 10.00 487.0 1 BTAIb2 11.10 11.10 11.10 +0.80 10.30 11.10 14.8 1 BTAIb4 10.00 11.70 11.28 +2.38 8.20 11.70 1,304.4 4 BTAIb5 9.24 11.50 9.24 -0.76 8.30 11.50 1,528.8 3 BTAIb6 11.00 11.00 11.00 +1.00 10.00 11.00 32.4 2 BTAIb8 12.00 12.00 12.00 +0.50 9.50 12.00 14.5 1 BTAIb9 7.36 7.36 7.36 7.36 7.90 714.5 1 BTASb1 12.50 13.00 13.00 +1.00 9.00 13.00 40.3 2 BTASb2 11.50 12.50 12.50 +1.50 8.50 12.50 54.6 4 BTASb3 11.00 11.00 11.00 +0.10 9.50 11.00 843.3 1 BTASb4 11.50 12.00 12.00 +1.00 7.00 12.00 27.4 2 BTASb7 7.00 7.00 7.00 0 7.00 8.60 79,530.8 7 CCBNb10 8.50 8.50 8.50 7.89 9.00 70.1 1 CCBNb11 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.50 122.3 1 CCBNb12 8.50 8.50 8.50 -0.11 7.00 8.61 9.9 1 CCBNb14 8.50 8.50 8.50 8.49 9.20 37.6 1 CCBNb15 10.50 10.50 10.50 +0.60 9.20 10.50 17.3 1 CCBNb17 12.00 12.00 12.00 0 12.00 12.00 9,966.8 2 CCBNb4 8.50 11.82 11.82 +0.82 7.97 11.82 1,309.7 2 CCBNb6 8.50 8.50 8.50 -2.50 8.50 11.00 177.4 1 CCBNb7 8.50 10.39 10.39 +1.29 8.50 10.39 1,238.9 2 CCBNb8 10.45 10.45 10.45 10.45 10.45 50.6 1 CCBNb9 8.50 8.50 8.50 -1.50 8.50 10.00 181.1 1 CSBNb2 10.10 10.10 10.10 0 9.48 10.10 15.2 1 CSBNb3 10.00 10.00 10.00 +0.70 9.30 10.00 14.9 1 CSBNb4 10.50 10.50 10.50 0 9.70 10.50 14.8 1 CSBNb5 10.00 10.00 10.00 +0.80 9.10 10.00 16.1 1 CSBNb6 10.25 11.25 11.25 +1.59 9.00 11.25 229.3 5 DNTLb1 12.00 12.30 12.00 0 12.00 12.30 33.9 2 DTJLb1 7.96 7.96 7.96 -1.54 7.96 9.63 1,281.9 1 EKTNb1 13.82 13.82 13.82 +2.32 11.50 13.82 1,923.1 1 EUBNb4 12.00 12.50 12.00 12.00 12.50 40,558.4 8 EXBNb1 12.00 14.00 12.00 9.11 14.00 3,650.1 3 GLOTb1 8.20 8.20 8.20 -1.80 8.20 13.78 19.4 1 HSBKb3 9.12 10.00 10.00 +0.80 6.92 10.00 3,210.3 4 HSBKb4 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 17.9 1 KAFIb1 9.00 9.00 9.00 +0.70 8.20 9.00 65.2 3 KARMb2 8.00 8.00 8.00 +0.50 7.50 8.00 14.6 1 KATRb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 0 10.83 13.00 254.9 2 KAZIb2 10.50 12.00 12.00 +1.50 10.10 12.00 77.5 3 KDTSb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 9.50 11.00 34.7 2 KIBNb3 13.94 14.00 14.00 0 13.94 14.00 5,145.4 6 KKGBb2 18.15 18.78 18.44 +2.17 1.89 18.78 223.6 3 KKGBe4 7.59 7.59 7.59 7.59 7.59 12.5 1 KKGBe5 7.87 7.87 7.87 7.87 7.87 12.1 1 KKGBe6 6.96 6.96 6.96 6.96 6.96 12.0 1 KKI_b1 11.99 11.99 11.99 11.99 11.99 373.9 1 KRZHb1 10.01 10.01 10.01 0 7.73 12.00 585.3 1 KZIKb10 9.00 11.00 11.00 +2.40 5.50 11.00 72.4 5 KZIKb11 8.50 12.00 12.00 +4.00 8.00 12.00 68.0 5 KZIKb12 8.50 12.00 12.00 +4.00 7.50 12.00 69.1 5 KZIKb2 11.40 12.50 12.50 8.60 12.50 42.1 2 KZIKb3 11.00 13.00 13.00 +5.12 7.88 13.00 74.9 3 KZIKb4 11.40 13.04 11.40 +1.90 8.37 13.04 160.8 2 KZIKb5 11.40 12.50 12.50 8.00 12.50 40.1 2 KZIKb6 11.00 12.10 12.10 6.20 12.10 24.5 2 KZIKb8 8.00 12.70 12.70 7.00 12.70 3,102.9 2 KZIKb9 7.00 9.00 9.00 +3.00 6.00 9.00 78.2 5 KZNHb2 12.10 14.00 12.10 -0.90 9.85 14.00 475.1 9 KZPSb1 8.20 8.60 8.60 +0.40 7.80 8.60 56.4 4 KZTCb1 12.50 13.35 13.35 +0.64 8.32 13.50 239.0 2 NFBNb1 12.01 12.01 12.01 -1.99 10.17 14.00 1,925.9 3 NRBNb2 14.50 19.00 19.00 +5.00 8.20 19.50 45.0 5 NRBNb4 12.70 12.70 12.70 -1.80 8.20 15.00 16.0 1 ORDBb2 12.00 12.16 12.16 +0.16 10.00 13.50 95.5 4 ORDKb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 11.99 13.00 0.8 1 ORNKb1 13.01 15.99 15.99 +2.89 6.35 15.99 2,958.4 5 RESCb1 15.00 15.00 15.00 11.50 15.00 571.3 2 RGBRb3 9.12 11.00 11.00 +1.50 8.10 11.00 1,279.3 2 RGBRb4 13.00 15.00 15.00 +1.50 8.00 15.00 2,117.7 20 ROSAb2 10.50 10.50 10.50 +1.00 8.48 10.50 17.4 1 TEBNb16 11.00 12.00 11.00 11.00 12.00 56,953.2 10 TEBNb2 6.00 16.00 6.00 -9.60 6.00 16.00 2,205.8 5 TEBNb3 9.00 14.02 14.02 +5.02 9.00 14.02 10,656.8 8 TEBNb5 9.50 9.50 9.50 0 8.50 9.50 16.2 1 TEBNb6 9.38 9.50 9.50 0 9.00 9.50 424.9 2 TEBNb9 8.99 8.99 8.99 8.80 9.05 863.4 1 TSASb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 1,847.2 1 TSBNb2 11.05 11.91 11.91 +0.86 10.00 12.00 4,212.7 2 TSBNb4 10.00 10.50 10.50 +1.00 8.50 10.50 51.9 4 TSBNb5 10.50 11.00 11.00 +0.50 10.00 11.00 225.3 6 TSSMb1 10.69 10.70 10.70 8.88 10.70 109.1 6 TXBNb2 11.00 11.50 11.50 +1.50 8.70 11.50 43.3 3 TXBNb3 7.57 9.00 9.00 +1.42 7.00 10.54 1,175.0 4 VITAb4 14.00 16.00 15.00 0 9.20 16.00 1,340.4 9 VITAb5 10.99 14.90 14.90 +4.30 9.12 14.90 1,384.1 6 ------- ----- ----- ----- -------- ----- ----- --------- -------- 113 292,151.2 336 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - September 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2007-11-08]