ANALYSIS: In September 2007, prices for shares on KASE kept falling

12.10.07 21:43
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, October 12, 07/ - In September 2007, 1,369 deals were registered in shares in all sectors, including deals, made on the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) for a total of KZT25,218.1m. or $206.7 m. at the current exchange rate on dates, on which deals were made. The specified amount makes 23.5% of the month turnover of the market of corporate securities on KASE (in August - 69.8%) and 0.7% of the entire month exchange turnover (1.0%). Statistic characteristic of shares market on KASE in September and August of year 2007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ------------------- Trend September August September 2007 Indicator 2007 2007 to August 2007 ---------------------------------------- --------- --------- -------------- Trades volume, th. USD 206,721.6 303,566.3 -31.9% Trades volume, m KZT 25,218.1 37,981.2 -33.6% Including on offerings, th. USD - - Х including on offerings, m. KZT - - Х including on STF RFCA, th. USD 36,956.5 1,329.8 +2,679.1% including on STF RFCA, m. KZT 4,491.1 167.1 +2,587.1% Number of deals 1,369 1,836 -25.4% Number of instruments, involved in deals 50 52 -2.0% Stake of nego deals (number), % 5.0 2.2 +2.7,пп Stake of nego deals (volume), % 11.3 10.3 +1.0,пп Part of pension assets, % on gross 20.5 9.5 +11.1,пп Part of physical entities, % on gross 18.6 26.9 -8.3,пп Number of exchange's members, 50 49 +2.0,пп who made deals Market concentration, %* 59.2 43.5 +15.7% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *it is specified percentage out of the entire shares turnover, which is numbered by most traded securities (their number is 5% out of the total number of share denominations, included in traded lists of KASE) Fall of shares market that formed sharply in August was continuing in the reported month as well. KASE_Shares index, as it is shown in the table below, had a negative dynamics during the entire September. The specified tendency correlated with changes in international indexes. In the analyzed month, price parameters of the common stocks of Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC, Halyk saving bank of Kazakhstan JSC, Kazkommertsbank JSC, Kazakhtelecom JSC, and Alliance bank JSC have decreased by 0.3%, 29.7%, 15.8% and 9.7% respectively. Common shares of Alliance bank JSC and Bank TuranAlem JSC increased in price by 71.8% and 5.9% respectively. On European markets, GDR prices for the common shares of Kazakhstani companies changed in different directions: Exploration Production KazMunayGas JSC (+8.6%), Halyk saving bank of Kazakhstan JSC (-0.4%), Kazkommertsbank JSC (-22.5%), Kazakhtelecom JSC (-5.9%), and Bank TuranAlem JSC (+8.3%), Alliance Bank (+5.4%). Overall, by the results of September, the growth of weighted average day prices was shown only by 42% of share denominations involved in deals, 52% of shares showed reduction, 6% - unchanged trend. The corresponding indicators of August are: 21%, 71%, 4%, and prices of 2% of share denominations had nothing to be compared with. Shares of "B" category demonstrated the maximal trends as of month's results. EKTN has fallen by 87,0%. It is remarkable that EKTN showed the maximal growth of shares as of August results (292.7%). Below are given the tables, characterizing the shares market of KASE in the analyzed month more fully. Changes in list of shares, traded on KASE, in September 2007 (end of month, change over the month) --------------------------------------------------- Shares: Instruments Issuers: Category of ------------ ------------ admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 46 -1 46 -1 31 0 B 47 -1 47 -1 39 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 93 -2 93 -2 69 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- N 5 0 5 0 5 0 A+B+N 98 -2 98 -2 74 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 18 0 18 0 10 0 A+B+C+N 98 -2 116 -2 74 0 --------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - the category of the official list of the special trading floor of the regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA); "А+В" - the official list of KASE; "А+В+N" - the main trading floor of KASE; "A+B+C+N" - totally on KASE, including STF RFCA; in connection with launching STF RFCA, within a security (share) of one denomination two exchange instruments can go with, which are different with the trading code, conditions of trades performance and of payment completion. Changes of KASE_Shares for different periods to the moment of trades' closing on September 28, 2007 (basis actual/365) ----------------------------------------------------- Change: ------------- Period % % APR --------------------------------------- ------ ------ For previous 30 days -3,0 -34,7 Since the beginning of the current year +5,3 +7,1 (since January 1, 07) For the last 365 days (year) +44,4 +44,4 For year 2006 +274,1 +274,1 Since the beginning of year 2005 +293,8 +168,9 ----------------------------------------------------- Main indicators of exchange market of purchase and sales of shares in September of year 2007 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Market ca- Volume of Volume of Number of pitalization, Index deals, deals, deals Data m. USD KASE_Shares th. USD m. KZT ---------------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- August 29, 07 59,600.69 2,609.43 17,892.1 2,258.9 119 September 2, 07 58,080.40 2,587.75 3,436.8 433.0 78 September 3, 07 60,032.63 2,592.93 10,303.8 1,288.3 54 September 4, 07 60,739.04 2,606.76 1,410.2 174.8 57 September 5, 07 59,832.64 2,576.01 2,998.1 368.9 52 September 6, 07 59,106.91 2,568.87 7,264.6 893.1 68 September 7, 07 58,998.71 2,533.74 10,333.4 1,264.1 71 September 10, 07 58,529.84 2,495.76 4,017.3 491.0 59 September 11, 07 57,814.48 2,482.92 4,858.2 593.5 45 September 12, 07 57,980.33 2,509.52 59,607.8 7,281.1 56 September 13, 07 57,759.36 2,472.50 832.2 101.4 52 September 14, 07 58,102.50 2,499.62 8,866.7 1,078.5 65 September 17, 07 57,717.75 2,472.90 1,510.0 183.7 51 September 18, 07 57,648.46 2,445.01 7,623.5 926.5 75 September 19, 07 58,437.38 2,492.15 11,302.0 1,371.2 77 September 20, 07 58,731.64 2,508.07 19,658.4 2,384.2 48 September 21, 07 57,640.92 2,485.43 3,398.6 412.2 71 September 24, 07 57,543.55 2,437.69 5,768.9 699.8 36 September 25, 07 57,169.53 2,439.84 11,772.9 1,427.9 76 September 26, 07 57,138.20 2,421.37 5,063.2 614.1 64 September 27, 07 57,134.12 2,419.79 7,919.9 959.9 110 September 28, 07 57,711.06 2,545.79 18,775.0 2,271.0 104 ---------------- ------------- ----------- --------- --------- --------- Trend -1,889.6 -63.65 , , % -3.2 -2.4 , , ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Results of trades in shares on KASE in September 2007 in purchase and sales sector (including nego deals) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Price, tenge per share: ---------------------------------------------------------- on last deal for last 365 days: Volume Num- ---------------- -------------------- of deals, ber Shares trend th. de- code min. max. price % min. max. USD als ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ----- aASFI 8,100.00 11,000.00 8,100.00 8,100.00 11,000.00 4,213.6 4 ALKZ 1,700.00 3,500.01 1,700.00 +21.4 1,400.00 3,500.01 7,926.9 16 ASAV 96,025.00 96,025.00 96,025.00 +14.8 34,351.00 96,025.00 79.2 2 ASBN 33,500.00 64,500.00 64,500.00 +71.8 11,100.00 69,000.00 3,379.6 19 ASBNp1 11,800.00 16,250.00 11,800.00 -27.2 10,000.00 25,000.00 532.7 11 ASFI 10,500.00 11,000.00 10,500.00 0 8,100.00 14,000.00 59.0 3 ASFIp 10,000.00 10,000.00 10,000.00 -13.0 4,001.00 11,500.00 21.6 2 ASND 5,060.00 5,060.00 5,060.00 3,850.00 5,060.00 8.3 1 aTEBNp 2,000.00 2,702.50 2,599.40 +73.3 1,500.00 2,702.50 32,742.9 15 ATFB 9,200.00 10,350.00 10,350.00 +11.3 7,000.00 14,000.00 835.2 21 ATFBp 3,580.00 4,000.00 4,000.00 -1.2 2,800.00 6,500.00 167.1 4 ATFBp8 3,850.00 4,125.00 4,100.00 +4.0 1,500.00 8,999.00 2,658.3 16 BTAS 81,009.00 131,000.00 108,000.00 -21.2 81,009.00 157,275.00 57,346.3 126 CCBN 1,400.00 1,760.00 1,480.00 -14.2 510.02 2,050.00 13,044.3 117 CHFM 1,000.50 1,000.50 1,000.50 +11.2 600.00 1,500.75 26.9 1 CSBN 5,600.00 6,100.00 6,100.00 -15.3 3,383.00 8,000.00 163.2 11 CSBNp 2,175.00 2,500.00 2,175.00 -13.0 700.01 3,505.00 40.2 6 DNBN 2,800.00 3,899.99 2,990.00 -3.4 1,400.00 6,727.50 356.3 14 EXBNp 1,800.00 2,200.00 2,000.00 +14.3 1,100.00 2,200.00 366.4 25 GB_KZMS 3,100.00 3,335.00 3,100.00 3,047.50 3,700.00 13.7 2 HSBK 402.00 640.00 402.00 -34.1 260.01 781.00 1,098.5 61 HSBKp 310.00 310.00 310.00 -7.0 290.00 333.50 2,556.1 1 HSBKp1 290.00 314.45 295.00 +1.7 200.00 345.00 253.9 36 KIBN 350.00 402.00 390.00 +11.4 150.00 1,150.00 40.9 4 KKGB 805.00 1,098.99 850.00 -13.3 805.00 1,550.00 5,766.7 266 KKGBp 290.00 375.00 300.00 +11.1 190.00 499.00 9,233.8 90 KZDK 1,150.00 3,423.00 3,423.00 1,000.00 3,423.00 257.4 2 KZIS 65,000.00 65,000.00 65,000.00 26,000.01 75,000.00 26.7 1 KZTC 22,400.00 22,400.00 22,400.00 -12.2 10,000.00 48,000.00 26.4 1 KZTCp 3,000.00 3,200.00 3,200.00 -7.2 1,044.00 8,750.00 81.3 4 KZTK 42,000.00 45,600.00 42,000.00 -7.7 28,000.00 55,000.00 1,317.3 29 KZTKp 16,200.00 17,500.00 17,300.00 +1.8 8,950.00 27,100.00 113.5 12 NFBN 4,025.00 6,083.50 5,099.00 -3.9 2,012.50 7,622.50 960.7 47 NRBN 28,631.00 28,631.00 28,631.00 +10.1 26,000.00 62,250.00 123.1 1 ORDB 4,000.00 4,150.00 4,000.00 , 2,807.17 4,600.00 3,576.7 27 ORDBp 2,100.00 2,291.89 2,291.89 +9.1 2,095.00 2,415.00 3,956.7 3 PDES 920.00 1,048.00 920.00 0 843.03 1,100.00 3,409.4 8 RDGZ 15,001.00 16,650.00 16,600.00 +2.2 11,260.00 18,399.99 22,371.5 160 RMXR 1.03 2.35 1.50 -40.0 1.00 4.95 738.7 21 ROSA 630.00 630.00 630.00 570.01 855.00 26.0 1 TEBN 7,498.00 7,900.00 7,500.00 -6.3 3,550.00 9,000.00 277.9 21 TEBNp 2,400.00 2,702.50 2,500.00 -7.1 1,080.00 3,300.00 1,924.0 51 TSBN 3,000.00 3,900.00 3,000.00 -18.9 1,510.00 4,550.00 586.2 18 TSBNp 2,100.00 2,100.00 2,100.00 -13.0 1,300.00 2,415.00 55.3 2 UTMK 27,000.00 27,000.00 27,000.00 0 25,000.00 28,750.00 241.1 9 ZERD 3.50 4.39 3.85 -2.5 1.50 4.50 338.6 9 ------- --------- ---------- ---------- ----- --------- ---------- --------- ----- 46 183,340.1 1 301 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Notes to the table: The table reflects only those shares, with which deals were made by method of open trades. Trends (change, %) are given relative to the last deal of the previous month (August 1-31, 2007). If there were no deals last month, trend is not calculated. Top-10 of the most liquid listing shares of KASE in September 2007, including STF RFCA ------------------------------------------------------------------ Base of liquidity indicator calculation (Kl): --------------------------------- Position Liqui Volume Number Number Position in Septe Share dity of deals number of KASE of in mber symbol indica KZT, of deals mem bers result August, 2007 tor(Kl) mln days 2007 -------- ------ ------- -------- -------- -------- ------ -------- 1 KKGB 2.6 706.9 266 50 21 2 2 RDGZ 2.0 2,728.5 160 35 21 1 3 BTAS 1.9 6,998.1 126 26 19 5 4 CCBN 1.7 1,590.4 117 34 21 3 5 KKGBp 1.4 1,122.3 90 28 18 4 6 HSBK 1.1 133.7 61 25 16 7 7 TEBNp 0.9 234.5 51 15 18 10 8 HSBKp1 0.8 30.8 36 9 20 16 9 NFBN 0.72 117.7 47 9 15 26 10 KZTK 0.68 160.3 29 15 11 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Notes to the table: for calculation of Kl are used only data on deals, which were made in the sector of KASE's secondary market by one of methods of open trades. Description of methods of calculation of the given indicator is available in corresponding chapter of the document, published at http://www.kase.kz/mix/rsp.pdf in Russian language and at http://www.kase.kz/eng/mix/rsp.pdf in English language. 10-top most capitalized companies of KASE whose shares are in official securities list of the exchange (to the moment of trades closing by specified dates) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ As of September 28, 07: as of August 29, 07: Change: ----------------------- -------------------- --------------- Company code po- capi- stake po- capi- stake capi- on KASE (the same si- taliza- of the si- taliza- of the taliza- stake, code is used for ti- tion, compa- ti- tion, compa- tion, % common share) on m USD ny, % on m USD ny, % m USD points ----------------- ----- --------- ------- ---- -------- ------ -------- ------ GB_KZMS 1 12,046.2 20.87 1 13,700.2 22.99 -1,654.1 -2.11 RDGZ 2 9,636.8 16.70 2 9,038.3 15.16 +598.5 +1.53 BTAS 3 6,559.1 11.37 3 7,971.7 13.38 -1,412.6 -2.01 ASBN 4 5,178.1 8.97 7 2,917.8 4.90 +2,260.3 +4.08 KKGB 5 4,350.5 7.54 5 4,730.6 7.94 -380.1 -0.40 KZTK 6 3,850.3 6.67 6 3,990.9 6.70 -140.5 -0.02 HSBK 7 3,529.4 6.12 4 5,004.1 8.40 -1,474.7 -2.28 ATFB 8 2,073.4 3.59 8 1,809.0 3.04 +264.4 +0.56 CCBN 9 1,406.8 2.44 9 1,570.9 2.64 -164.2 -0.20 TEBN 10 1,198.8 2.08 10 1,226.0 2.06 -27.3 +0.02 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Not to the table: Stake of the company, % - indicator, calculated by ratio of market capitalization of the company to total capitalization of exchange market of shares of KASE's official list of securities and expressed in percentage. This indicator at the session closing as of September 28, 2006 was $57,711.1 m. There were 93 shares of 69 issuers in official securities list of KASE. A full list of codes of issuers with the names of companies is published at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm [2007-10-12]