ANALYSIS: As of October 1 of 2007 the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as GS along with servicing totaled KZT1,028.8 bn. or $8.5 bn.

/IRBIS, Zaure Yessimova, October 12, 07/ - As of October 1 of 2007, the total state debt of Kazakhstan, issued as government securities (GS), including municipal bonds, along with the servicing (amount of coupon payments) equaled in current prices to KZT1,028.8 bn., or $8,505.5 m. at the rate of KZT120.96 per a dollar. IRBIS specialists made such a conclusion after analyzing its databases. While making the analysis, the amounts of future payments on MEIKAM were calculated taking into consideration consumer price index, which had been fixed for the period from July to September of 2007 inclusive, on MEUJKAM and MUIKAM - from October of 2006 to September of 2007 inclusive. Within September 1 - 30 of 2007 the total debt in tenge equivalent decreased by KZT281.4 bn. (-21.5%), in dollar equivalent by 1,872.4 m. (- 18.0%) (taking into account change of exchange rate of the National Bank). Similar indicators of debt change in August of 2007 were minus KZT189.7 bn. (- 12.7%) or minus $1,759.6 m. (-14.5%). Following table contains detailed information. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt Change -------------------------------- as of for the *Currency of September 30, 07 as of period ------------- ------------------ August 31, 07 ---------------- Issuer issue service bn. KZT stake, % bn. KZT m. KZT % ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------- ---------- ----- National Bank KZT KZT 331.827 32.3 669.510 -337,682.4 -50.4 ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------- ---------- ----- Ministry 694.058 67.5 637.633 +56,425.7 +8.8 of Finance incl. face value KZT KZT 478.473 46.5 448.973 +29,500.0 +6.6 incl. servicing KZT KZT 215.586 21.0 188.660 +26,925.7 +14.3 ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------- ---------- ----- Akimat of USD KZT 2.941 0.3 3.070 -128.6 -4.2 Atyrau obl. incl. face value USD KZT 2.711 0.3 2.829 -118.6 -4.2 incl. servicing USD KZT 0.230 0.02 0.240 -10.1 -4.2 ---------------- ----- ------- --------- -------- ------------- ---------- ----- TOTAL 1,028.827 100.0 1,310.212 -281,385.3 -21.5 incl. face value 813.011 79.0 1,121.312 -308,301.0 -27.5 incl. servicing 215.816 21.0 188.900 +26,915.7 +14.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. Equivalents as of September 30, 07 were calculated at the rate of KZT120.96 per a dollar, as of August 31, 07 - at KZT126.25. Therefore, the data shown in the table reflect the dynamics turned out with exchange rate fluctuations besides all other factors. Similar figures in U.S. dollars are given in the table as follows. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Amount and structure of debt Change --------------------------- as of for the *Currency of Sep 31, 07 as of period ------------- ---------------- Aug 30, 07 ------------------ Issuer issue service m. USD stake, % m. USD th. USD % ---------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- National Bank KZT KZT 2,743.3 32.3 5,303.0 -2,559,766.1 -48.3 ---------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- Ministry 5,737.9 67.5 5,050.6 +687,361.0 +13.6 of Finance incl. face value KZT KZT 3,955.6 46.5 3,556.2 +399,408.1 +11.2 incl. servicing KZT KZT 1,782.3 21.0 1,494.3 +287,952.9 +19.3 ---------------- ----- ------- ------- -------- ---------- ------------ ----- Akimat of USD KZT 24.32 0.3 24.32 0 0 Atyrau obl. incl. face value USD KZT 22.4 0.3 22.4 0 0 incl. servicing USD KZT 1.9 0.02 1.9 0 0 TOTAL 8,505.5 100.0 10,377.9 -1,872,405.1 -18.0 incl. face value 6,721.3 79.0 8,881.7 -2,160,358.0 -24.3 incl. servicing 1,784.2 21.0 1,496.2 +287,952.9 +19.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- *USD is shown as issue currency also in case the face value of bond is expressed in tenge, but the security is indexed on the level of changing of the rate of tenge to US dollar. According to the data of IRBIS, the issue volume of the National Bank's GS in September 2007 by amounts of offering was KZT112,128.6 m. (in August - KZT54,468.1 m.). At that, the issuer paid off or redeemed his notes on secondary market for a total sum of KZT492,430.4 m. (KZT255,468.2 m.). Thus in September the net-borrowing balance of the National Bank in GS market was minus KZT380,301.8 m. Corresponding index in August was minus KZT200,000.1 ("minus" sign in balance indicator means that the mentioned sum was withdrawn from issuer's budget and remained in investors' possession, "plus" sign - issuer borrowed more than redeemed). Thus, in August same as in September, the National Bank had used its notes to increase tenge liquidity on the market, also by repurchasing them on stock exchange. In September, the Ministry of finance borrowed by offering of MEKAM KZT28,998.0 m. (in August - KZT2,250.4 m.) and paid face values of bonds and coupon payments for a total of KZT1,330.2 m. (in August - KZT1,159.9 m.). September net-borrowing balance of the Ministry of finance is estimated by IRBIS at plus KZT27,667.8 m. (in August - plus KZT1,090.5 m.). Total September net-borrowing balance of all Kazakhstan GS issuers including municipal bodies was estimated by IRBIS at minus KZT352,633.9 m. Similar indicator of August - minus KZT199,909.6 m. Agency IRBIS draws attention of subscribers and mass media that the data given below are not official statistics and received by result of analysis of information, containing in database of the agency on the primary GS market. In part of internal bonds the bases of agency are adjusted by data provided to IRBIS by Central depositary of securities JSC (Almaty). [2007-10-12]