ANALYSIS: In September 2007 the corporate bonds market on KASE fully experienced the impact of turbulence on global financial markets

09.10.07 21:18
/IRBIS, Dinara Mukasheva, October 9, 07/ - In September 2007 on Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) 402 deals were made with corporate bonds in all sectors of the market, including deals, performed on the special trading floor of the Regional financial center of Almaty (STF RFCA) for a total of KZT81,877.5 m. or USD671.8 m. at the current rate, effective on deals concluding dates. The stated amount is 76.5% of monthly turnover of corporate securities market (in August 2007 - 30.2%) and 3.1% of monthly exchange turnover (0.4%). Statistic characteristic of corporate bonds market on KASE in August and September of 2007 (indicators are given taking into account direct deals) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Month: ---------------------- Trend September August compared to Indicator 2007 2007 August 2007 ------------------------------------------- ----------- --------- -------------- Trades volume, th., USD 671,786.0 131,243.9 +411.9% Trades volume, m., KZT 81,877.5 16,374.8 +400.0% including, on offerings, th. USD 0 4,097.6 X including, on offerings, m. KZT 0 505.3 X including, on STF RFCA, th. USD 49,307.8 102.7 +47,920.8% including, on STF RFCA, m. KZT 6,006.7 12.7 +47,352.1% Number of deals 402 152 +164.5% Number of instruments, 113 52 +117.3% involved in deals Stake of nego deals (number), % 0.2 1.3 -1.1 pp Stake of nego deals (volume), % <0.1 <0.1 +0.02 pp Participation of pension assets, % gross 11.0 10.6 +0.4 pp Participation of physical entities, % gross 1.5 3.7 -2.2 pp Number of exchange's members, 33 31 +6.5% who made deals Market concentration, %* 76.9 50.9 +26.0 pp ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *it is specified the percentage out of total turnover of corporate bonds, which are numbered by the most traded securities (their quantity is 5% out of the total quantity of titles of corporate bonds, included in trading list of KASE) The two-month lull on exchange market of corporate bonds, evoked by so called liquidity crisis, changed in the semblance of activity in September. In that month, a record amount of deals of $671.8 were registered on KASE which exceeds August, 2007 indicator more than four times. However, the attentive study of the turnover structure shows: the greatest activity of the given segment came on September 13 and 27 when a series of "internal" deals with BTASb7 was registered on exchange market. In the materials, presented below, it is shown that this transaction took 53.9% of the total turnover of exchange market in September, which explains the very high value of the market concentration index. IRBIS analysts have the grounds to find the described transactions not really market per se. Therefore, it can be concluded that the liquidity of corporate bonds remained at a rather low level in the analyzed month. Price background of exchange's corporate bonds market in September looked the next way. From 113 names of bonds, involved into deals on secondary market, 84 names of bonds were traded with discount, 29 - with premium. The mostly re-bought seemed MREKb4, average weighted net price of which made 110.88%, the mostly re-sold seemed AGKKb1 (76.23%). In August deals on secondary market were conducted with bonds of 52 names, 41 names of bonds were traded with discount, 10 with premium, 1 at face value. The mostly re-bought seemed KRZHb1 (117.71%), the mostly re-sold was AGKKb1 (84.28%).. The weighted average net price of corporate bonds at the secondary market in August decreased to 96.13% from 101.78%. For month the yield to maturity on concluded deals increased for buyers of 78 corporate bonds, and decreased for 29 corporate bonds. There was nothing to compare with the yield of five securities. In August the corresponding indicators showed 30, 19 and 3. Thus, it would not be a mistake to say that, on September, the market of corporate bonds on KASE fully experienced the impact of turbulence on global financial market. The prices of bonds have fallen significantly. Tables, which additionally characterize the exchange market of corporate bonds in September, are given below. Change of lists of corporate bonds, traded on KASE, in September 2007 --------------------------------------------------------- Bonds: Issuers: Category of ------------- Instruments ------------- admission number trend number trend number trend ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A 200 +4 200 +4 63 +1 B 24 0 24 0 24 0 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- A+B 224 +4 224 +4 87 +1 ------------ ------ ----- ------ ----- ------ ----- C (STF RFCA) 52 0 52 0 16 0 A+B+C 224 +4 276 +4 87 +1 --------------------------------------------------------- Notes: "A", "B" - categories of the official list of KASE; "C" - category of the official list of STF RFCA in connection with launch of STF RFCA for the security (bond) of one denomination, two exchange instruments, differing with the code, with conditions of trades holding and payment making, can go with. Main indicators of KASE's corporate bond market in September 2007 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Market. value of Index Volume of Volume of debt, KASE_BY, Index Index deals, deals, Date USD m. % APR KASE_BP KASE_BC th. USD m. KZT ---------------- --------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- August 29,07 13,654.53 7.68 214.80 132.19 12,739.6 1,608.4 September 2, 07 13,668.69 7.68 214.89 132.17 14,313.5 1,803.4 September 3, 07 13,722.58 7.76 214.42 131.81 46,218.7 5,778.7 September 4, 07 13,880.66 7.73 214.52 131.84 12,634.0 1,566.4 September 5, 07 13,914.44 7.77 214.11 131.50 990.7 121.9 September 6, 07 14,000.51 8.14 212.25 130.26 2,026.0 249.1 September 7, 07 14,072.12 8.15 212.25 130.23 1,198.0 146.5 September 10, 07 14,164.09 8.14 212.58 130.38 2,427.1 296.6 September 11, 07 14,163.13 8.14 212.57 130.34 205.5 25.1 September 12, 07 14,130.57 7.85 214.43 131.51 38,332.1 4,682.3 September 13, 07 14,853.46 7.73 215.42 132.21 130,683.2 15,919.8 September 14, 07 14,864.65 7.75 215.20 132.02 5,414.9 658.6 September 17, 07 14,863.37 8.13 213.44 130.78 239.0 29.1 September 18, 07 14,865.21 7.75 215.73 132.26 93,597.7 11,374.9 September 19, 07 14,878.36 8.14 213.65 130.85 5,075.3 615.7 September 20, 07 14,875.14 8.17 213.50 130.63 13,692.2 1,660.6 September 21, 07 14,870.05 8.17 213.44 130.63 9,694.9 1,175.9 September 24, 07 14,864.77 7.74 216.37 132.52 84,548.0 10,256.5 September 25, 07 14,864.12 8.16 214.01 130.88 4,325.7 524.7 September 26, 07 14,842.74 8.22 213.33 130.40 64,752.0 7,853.8 September 27, 07 14,861.19 7.92 215.24 131.60 133,752.3 16,210.8 September 28, 07 14,883.81 8.23 213.90 130.69 7,665.3 927.2 ---------------- --------- -------- ------- ------- --------- --------- Trend +1,229.3 +0.5 -0.9 -1.5 , , % +9.00 +7.15 -0.42 -0.14 , , ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary data on the results of bond trades on KASE in September 2007 (purchase and sale, including offerings, without consideration of nego deals) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Yield to maturity for a buyer, % APR: ---------------------------------------------- Code on the last deal: volume on the last deal: last 365 days for of bond -------------------------------- of deals, Number on KASE min. max. yield trend, % min. max. th. USD of deals --------- ----- ----- ------ --------- ------ ----- --------- -------- aASFIb14 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 49,307.8 4 AGKKb1 10.00 11.00 10.99 -2.01 10.00 13.00 454.7 3 ALVZb1 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50 2,046.8 5 ASAVb2 9.00 10.50 10.50 0 9.00 10.50 66.6 2 ASBNb1 10.65 13.70 13.70 +1.56 9.00 13.70 119.9 10 ASBNb3 10.60 10.60 10.60 +1.99 8.03 11.80 18.3 1 ASBNb4 13.50 18.20 13.50 -1.50 8.10 18.20 352.3 6 ASBNb6 10.00 11.00 11.00 +1.70 8.49 12.00 34.2 2 ASBNb7 8.50 8.50 8.50 -2.50 8.50 11.00 3,356.2 1 ASFIb12 9.00 9.00 9.00 0 9.00 9.90 1,357.3 1 ASFIb3 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.10 8.60 28.2 2 ASFIb4 9.48 11.30 9.48 9.48 11.30 1,362.8 9 ASFIb5 12.00 13.00 13.00 +1.00 8.83 13.00 2,356.9 6 ASFIb6 10.00 11.00 11.00 9.50 11.94 31.7 2 ASFIb7 11.00 11.00 11.00 8.50 11.00 1,202.0 4 ASFIb8 8.10 8.10 8.10 8.10 8.10 16.0 1 ASFIb9 11.00 12.00 12.00 7.50 12.00 26.6 2 ASNDb1 11.91 11.91 11.91 +0.25 8.90 11.91 10,500.5 1 ATFBb3 8.64 8.95 8.95 +1.94 6.10 8.95 6,473.4 4 ATFBb4 8.65 8.65 8.65 +1.65 7.00 8.65 3,573.5 1 ATFBb5 9.95 11.50 11.50 7.75 11.50 4,617.0 8 ATFBb6 7.60 8.70 7.60 -1.40 7.60 9.00 2,093.0 4 BTAIb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.20 10.00 56.1 1 BTAIb2 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30 10.30 15.0 1 BTAIb3 10.10 13.00 11.17 8.45 13.00 1,503.3 7 BTAIb4 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.20 8.90 16.5 1 BTAIb5 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.30 10.00 15.4 1 BTAIb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 436.3 3 BTAIb8 11.50 11.50 11.50 8.50 11.50 29.3 2 BTASb1 11.58 12.00 12.00 +1.00 9.00 12.00 2,157.8 3 BTASb2 11.00 11.00 11.00 0 8.50 11.00 14.5 1 BTASb3 10.90 10.90 10.90 9.50 10.91 1,360.1 2 BTASb4 10.50 11.10 11.00 7.00 11.10 2,110.5 8 BTASb7 7.00 8.20 7.00 0 7.00 8.60 362,193.4 39 CCBNb12 8.61 8.61 8.61 7.00 8.61 4,241.5 1 CCBNb15 9.90 10.00 9.90 9.20 10.00 15,666.8 3 CCBNb16 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 15,523.3 1 CCBNb17 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 63,323.2 7 CCBNb2 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.29 10.00 1,257.8 2 CCBNb3 8.58 9.29 9.29 8.50 9.29 453.1 4 CCBNb4 9.68 11.00 11.00 7.97 11.00 107.2 3 CCBNb6 9.00 11.00 11.00 9.00 11.00 3,375.9 6 CCBNb7 9.10 9.10 9.10 9.10 9.10 35.2 1 CCBNb9 9.50 10.00 10.00 9.50 10.00 48.9 2 CSBNb2 9.48 10.10 10.10 9.48 10.10 4,750.6 11 CSBNb3 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 3,130.3 4 CSBNb4 9.80 10.50 10.50 9.70 10.50 104.0 7 CSBNb5 9.10 9.20 9.20 9.10 9.35 98.3 6 CSBNb6 9.66 9.66 9.66 -1.59 8.50 11.25 3,393.5 1 DNTLb1 12.00 12.00 12.00 -0.30 12.00 12.30 312.3 1 DTJLb1 8.02 9.63 9.50 +1.46 8.02 9.63 8,787.5 4 EKTNb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50 13.82 306.7 2 EUBNb1 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 4,167.5 2 EUBNb3 9.50 9.50 9.50 8.20 9.70 1,807.1 1 GLOTb1 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 13.78 16.0 1 GLOTb2 9.10 12.00 9.10 9.10 12.00 84.5 3 HSBKb3 8.80 9.20 9.20 6.92 9.20 4,888.0 4 ISKEb1 13.00 13.00 13.00 -0.20 12.00 13.20 296.2 1 JGOKb2 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 7,478.3 1 KAFIb1 8.30 8.30 8.30 +0.10 8.20 8.60 22.1 1 KARMb2 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 1,303.3 2 KASTb2 10.10 10.10 10.10 -0.10 8.40 10.70 325.4 3 KATRb1 11.50 11.50 11.50 0 10.00 13.00 880.1 2 KAZIb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 10.00 11.13 628.8 1 KAZIb2 10.50 10.50 10.50 0 10.10 10.50 415.5 1 KDTSb1 11.00 11.00 11.00 9.50 11.00 0.8 1 KIBNb3 14.00 14.00 14.00 13.94 14.00 6,253.9 9 KKAGb1 11.30 11.30 11.30 11.00 12.30 239.6 2 KKAGb2 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 9.30 2,096.5 5 KKAGb3 10.00 10.50 10.50 9.20 10.50 32.7 2 KKGBb2 15.70 16.27 16.27 +3.44 1.89 16.27 20.8 2 KKGBb4 9.00 10.50 10.50 6.00 10.50 33.2 2 KONDb1 6.78 6.78 6.78 6.78 10.20 7,105.4 3 KRZHb1 10.01 12.00 10.01 +2.28 7.73 12.00 1,096.4 2 KZALb1 12.30 12.30 12.30 9.32 12.30 14.1 1 KZASb2 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.00 8.90 240.0 1 KZIKb10 8.60 8.60 8.60 +1.60 5.50 8.60 29.2 2 KZIKb11 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 30.1 2 KZIKb12 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.20 8.00 46.8 3 KZIKb15 9.00 9.50 9.00 9.00 9.50 33.0 2 KZIKb3 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 8.20 154.3 1 KZIKb4 9.50 9.50 9.50 8.00 9.50 621.9 2 KZIKb9 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.50 31.0 2 KZNHb2 11.50 13.00 13.00 +1.50 9.85 14.00 71.3 5 KZPSb1 8.16 8.20 8.20 7.80 8.20 99.1 2 KZTCb1 12.71 12.71 12.71 -0.79 8.32 13.50 160.6 1 MREKb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.50 9.50 1,902.5 2 MREKb4 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.45 5.7 3 NFBNb1 12.20 14.00 14.00 +1.00 10.17 14.00 1,239.1 3 NRBNb2 12.60 14.00 14.00 +1.00 8.20 14.00 167.2 2 NRBNb4 13.10 14.50 14.50 +0.50 8.20 15.00 870.7 3 NRBNb5 9.90 9.90 9.90 8.30 9.90 15.1 1 ORDBb2 12.00 12.00 12.00 10.00 13.50 686.7 3 ORNKb1 12.00 13.55 13.10 +2.10 6.35 14.14 3,400.7 9 PRKRb2 9.90 9.90 9.90 0 8.00 10.20 2,383.4 1 RGBRb3 9.00 9.50 9.50 8.10 9.50 750.5 5 RGBRb4 13.00 13.50 13.50 +1.50 8.00 13.50 818.3 9 ROSAb2 9.50 9.50 9.50 8.48 9.50 168.1 2 TEBNb2 14.00 16.00 15.60 +1.60 13.50 16.00 340.2 10 TEBNb3 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 4,445.3 5 TEBNb5 9.00 9.50 9.50 8.50 9.50 48.0 3 TEBNb6 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.00 9.50 445.7 3 TSBNb2 11.00 11.05 11.05 10.00 11.05 2,571.0 3 TSBNb3 10.00 10.00 10.00 9.00 12.00 33.4 2 TSBNb4 9.40 10.00 9.50 +1.00 8.50 10.20 89.3 5 TSBNb5 10.00 10.70 10.50 10.00 10.70 10,697.5 11 TSBNb6 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.00 10.20 796.5 1 TSNAb1 10.70 11.00 11.00 10.70 11.20 7,395.9 4 TXBNb2 10.00 10.00 10.00 8.70 10.00 29.1 2 TXBNb3 7.00 9.00 7.58 7.00 10.54 1,154.9 4 US_JPM_e1 8.75 9.02 9.02 8.75 9.02 2,584.9 2 VITAb4 11.45 15.00 15.00 9.00 15.00 3,358.0 10 VITAb5 10.00 10.60 10.60 9.12 11.40 308.8 4 --------- ----- ----- ------ --------- ------ ----- --------- -------- 113 671,648.9 401 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments: Securities were sorted in alphabetical order according to codes of bonds. Trends are given in percentage points (1pp = 100 basis points) relative to the last deal of previous month - August 2007. In the code of bond by the number is noted the number of bonds' issue. In case of number absence (old quotation) is meant the first emission. The full list of codes of issuers is available at http://www.kase.kz/instruments/nzb_code.htm. [2007-10-09]